Prepared Mind Briefing #5: Intercept the Future

OK, you made it through the 2007 financial crisis and your business (maybe) survived the COVID19 ?shut-downs, the realities of “quiet quitting,” and the work-from-home kerfuffle. Whew! Time to relax?

What challenges are lurking in your future?

Now look three to five years into the future. Do you see economic uncertainty? How about technology disruption? And how are you going to develop all those GenZ workers? These challenges and others are fuzzy at best and all we know for sure is that they will not self-resolve.

The proverbial “bottom line” is that we know that there are surprises (both good and bad) awaiting us as we peer into the haze we call “the future.” Our basic choices are to either wait for these surprises to fully develop or to try and “intercept them” before they do so.

A person with a prepared mind takes the second option – try to intercept them and get to the future, prepared. ?This requires asking four questions and finding “good enough” answers to these questions. The questions and the needed actions are depicted below.

Q1 - What’s going on?

Answering this question requires the willingness and ability to scan the larger environment and confront reality. You should “think across time” and scan the horizon for clues and trends. You should also explore the larger environment of industry and society which surrounds you and your business.?

You should also document all the assumptions you’re making about your business and discuss which are eroding or becoming fragile.

This work will result in the documentation of significant trends and clues of impending changes.

• What clues do you see that indicate changes for you and your organization? Be specific.
• What trends, if they continue, will help or hurt your organization?

Q2 - Where is the future taking us?

?Answering this question means building hypotheses (guessing) about probable, plausible and possible scenarios and then assessing these scenarios against key success criteria. These scenarios will focus on the organization’s business model and the role of your team within the organization.

This work will result in outlining three hypothetical future business models and how they might be different from today’s reality.

• PROBABLE HYPOTHESIS Given your knowledge and experience, what do you think the future will probably look like for you and your organization? Same customer base? Same set of competitors? What about the “natural” progression of technology and workforce issues?
• PLAUSIBLE HYPOTHESIS: Take your probable hypothesis and “stretch it” within reasonable limits. The customer base might increase (or decrease) by X-percent. Industry competitors might expand or shrink. Maybe older workforce members will retire early (or delay).
• POSSIBLE HYPOTHESIS: Think the unthinkable. What if some of the trends you noted converged? What if a new technology was acquired by your biggest competitor? What if your industry slipped into recession? ?

The first two questions provide information that is only valuable if the information helps the leadership team “place bets” (i.e., make decisions) that anticipate and impact future challenges.

Q3 - Can we intercept the future?

Answering and acting upon this question lies at the heart of not being taken by surprise. We will analyze the competing hypotheses and take a closer look at stakeholder needs. The key is to make decisions today that will positively affect future conditions. These decisions might be as simple as setting a “trip wire” for action in the future or as high-risk as making changes today that will take months or years to play-out.

First, what decisions must be made regarding any, some, or even all the following strategic factors?

• Customers
• Offerings
• People and organization
• Equipment
• Facilities and locations
• Infrastructure technology
• Policies and procedures
• Business partners
• Resources employed

Second, what is the ripple effect across this list of factors if any of them are changed? For example, will a change in infrastructure technology trigger a need to change policies or procedures? Or, what are the people and organization implications of change in location?

This work will result in a decision plan that will document needed decisions and their associated timing and relative risk.

Q4 - How are we doing?

The decisions identified in the previous question will inevitably result in a portfolio of projects for the leadership team.

The question of “how are doing?” will be answered by regular After-Action Reviews. These reviews ask and answer four questions.

1.??????? What did we want to accomplish?

2.??????? What did we accomplish?

3.??????? Are they the same or different, and why?

4.??????? What did we learn?

Remember, you must learn from the past and respond to today if you are going to intercept the future. See the last two briefings for our views on these challenges.

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Want to know more? Have any questions? We provide webinars, workshops, and coaching focused on developing and using a “prepared mind.” You can reach me at [email protected] .