Premortem
Greg Fisher
Larry and Barbara Sharpf Professor of Entrepreneurship at Indiana University
A few years ago, the winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, Daniel Kahneman, was asked what one tool he would recommend to help leaders and executives make better decisions and avoid bias in their choices. His answer: A premortem, the debiasing technique created by Gary Klein. Here, Kahneman explains the concept:
A pre-mortem is the opposite of a post-mortem. Rather than dissecting failures after the fact, a premortem has you envision a future where your decision went wrong. The goal is to identify weak spots, anticipate obstacles, and validate your strategic direction and approach while there's still time to adjust.
How to Run a Pre-Mortem
Why It Works
A premortem combats overconfidence and groupthink, surfacing risks early when changes are cheaper and easier. It empowers teams to think critically and anticipate issues without fear of judgment. When done well, it strengthens confidence in the strategy, knowing it’s been refined through a thorough vetting process.
Quick Tips
Next time you’re about to make a strategic leap, run a premortem. It’s a simple exercise that could save you months of work and thousands in resources.
Innovative Business Strategist | Product Designer/Developer | AI Engineer (Student) | E-Commerce & Digital Marketing Professional Certified
4 个月Thank you, Greg, for giving me something new to think about! ?? The premortem approach is, in my view, essential for strategic risk management. Strategies shouldn’t be rigid plans but hypotheses that need regular review as conditions evolve—what worked before may not be the best approach today. Tools like the Balanced Scorecard help monitor objectives and allow adjustments if the plan veers off course. Involving diverse perspectives—internally and externally—is crucial. External feedback, especially from target groups, ensures strategies align with real needs and prevents groupthink. I find the potential of AI for scenario analysis increasingly intriguing. AI can help identify risks and simulate scenarios with variable factors, enhancing our understanding of dependencies. In my opinion, regular premortems enable teams to catch weaknesses early and keep strategies future-proof—a must in today’s dynamic world, especially if companies conduct effective trend analysis.
Principal | Consultant | Founder
4 个月We recently ran a pre-mortem for a beta stage startup. It was particularly revealing in its capacity to identify and evaluate potential disconnects that should have been detected but for expediency sake their emerging signals either discounted or back-burnered.
People Leader | Team Builder | Community Advocate
4 个月When I first proposed a pre-mortem I had to fight off accusations of cynicism. Once I was able to convince the team is was a strategy for success - not a harbinger of failure - they bought in and found it really useful. As with most things, you have to pitch and communicate it the right way to get buy-in
Digital Strategy & Marketing Analytics | Kelley MBA | Techstars Mentor
4 个月About 10 years ago I ran a pre-mortem for a major product launch unlike anything else in the business. The exercise was great and we identified the cause of failure before we launched. The trouble was that it’s difficult to take your own advice before it’s too late. It was tough to watch the project fail knowing we could have done more.
Founding Partner, medical director and veterinarian @ Fox Creek Veterinary Hospital | Doctor of Veterinary Medicine and MBA
4 个月Insightful. Thank you