Premier League Value: First thoughts on this week's midweek matches

Running the numbers through our little Black Box here at Magpie Quants HQ, we've highlighted two matches this midweek which we think have been priced up wrong. For the traders amongst you these are plays in which we think you can get in and get out pre-match, or if that fails get out in-running.

Tuesday 4th April 2023

Nottingham Forest to beat Leeds @ 4.90 Betfair Exchange

The oddsmakers have Nottingham Forest as 20.41% chances to win at Elland Road, whilst our figures have them holding a near 25% chance. 4.90 very much value according to the Black Box.

Wednesday 5th April 2023

Newcastle to beat West Ham @ 2.20 Betfair Exchange

If this current Newcastle team were to play West Ham away 100 times you'd have to be thinking they'd win more than 50 of them, wouldn't you? Our Black Box has it nearer 60, so the 2.20 is value.