Preliminary Winter Forecast 2020-2021

Preliminary Winter Forecast 2020-2021- Issued November 8th 2020 for Central Maryland:

Influencing Factors:

Sun Spot/Volcanic Activity: Sunspot activity does not seem to be a factor this year. Solar Minimum/ Maximum in at the mid- point of the 7-year cycle and therefore is also not expected to be a factor in 2020. Volcanic activity has been normal this year.

Note: Generally I haven’t factored Wildfires, or lack of Pollution this year caused by Environmental and Pandemic conditions this year. They would seem to cancel themselves out? I believe that with less pollution that could allow for slightly colder conditions.

Folklore: Fuzzy Caterpillars: (Brown/Black), I have seen several fuzzy Caterpillars recently and those little creature were Dark Brown in coloration. This is different from last year’s observation which was mostly Brown with some Lighter shading band. This suggests normal to slightly below normal Winter temps.

Squirrel Activity: I have observed slightly higher activity recently, our furry friends have begun to stock pile nuts. Last year the squirrels seemed even more urgent. Last year that produced a colder Fall even though the Winter was at record Above Normal Temps. Seems like the squirrels are getting a little nervous.

El Nino/ La Nina: El Nino Conditions have subsided since 2018 and a Neutral ENSO Signal was expected to last into 2020. Currently we are still rebounding from 2018 and that seems to calm down and possible reverse by end of Winter. This signal will portends to slightly above normal precipitation and slightly colder conditions in the mid-Atlantic Region. 

Arctic Oscillation/AO: It is difficult to forecast the AO for an entire Winter Cycle as it generally fluctuates over shorter periods of time. When this Signal is Positive the AO can deliver Very Cold Air into our Weather Pattern. I expect a slightly Positive AO given the Neutral ENSO Signal. This signal can deliver Very Cold Air from time to time. Source Regions will play a role as True Arctic Air is much denser than Polar Pacific Air and will determine Precipitation Types i.e. (Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain, and Rain). Last year the A/O was almost entirely Negative which limited the amount of Cross Polar Air from reaching our area. I expect this year may be different. I will update in more detail with the release of my Final Winter Forecast which will be released by 12/1/2020/Metrological Winter.

1st Accumulating Snowfall/ 2” Inches December 5th

Winter Temperature Forecast: Below Normal 1.0 Degrees

Snowfall Forecast: Above Average 43.5”, (BWI Seasonal Average is 21.5") 3.8 inches last year almost 18 inches below average.

My Storm Categories: Snow & Ice Impacts:

Snow:

Cat 1: 3-5 Inches - Minimal impact, Local Travel Delays Possible

Cat 2: 6-10 Inches- Moderate Impacts, Travel Delays Likely 1-2 Days

Cat 3: 10-15 Inches- Significant Impacts, Widespread Travel Delays 2-3 Days, Property Damage possible

Cat 4: 15-25 Inches- Extreme Impacts, Widespread Travel Shut Down for ~3 Days, Property Cat 5: 25-30+ Inches- Catastrophic Impacts, Widespread Travel Shut Down 3+ Days, Widespread Property Damage Likely

Ice:

Cat 1: .25 Inch - Minimal impact, Travel Delays Possible

Cat 2: .50+ Inch- Moderate Impacts, Travel Delays Likely 1-2 Days

Cat 3: .75-1.0+ Inch- Significant Impacts, Widespread Travel Delays 2-3 Days, Property Damage Possible

Cat 4: 1.25-1.5+ Inches- Extreme Impacts, Widespread Travel Shut Down for 2+ Days, Property Damage Likely

Cat 5: 1.75-2.0+ Inches- Catastrophic Impacts, Widespread Travel Shut Down 3+ Days, Widespread Property Damage Likely

*** As usual I will Forecast Individual Winter Storms that are Category 2 or Higher as these Storms have Moderate Travel Impacts & Delays.