Preface to the Chinese Edition of Megaprojects and Risk

Full reference: Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius, and Werner Rothengatter, 2018, Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. Beijing: Cambridge University Press and China Science Publishing and Media, 209 pp. Available at Amazon China: https://amzn.to/2KKMsE5 and Dangdang: https://bit.ly/2P1crdJ.

No other country builds more megaprojects than China. No other country is defined by megaprojects the way China is

We are currently living through the biggest investment boom in history, led by China. Never have megaprojects been bigger, never have more such projects been built, and never has a country used megaprojects for nation-building in the manner and to the degree China does. The numbers are staggering. China used more cement in the three years 2011-2013 than the US in the entire twentieth century. In the five years 2004-2008, China spent more on infrastructure in real terms than it did in the whole of the previous century. In the four years 2005-2008, China built as many miles of high-speed rail as Europe in the past two decades, when Europe built more of this asset class than ever before. No other country builds more megaprojects than China. No other country is defined by megaprojects the way China is.

The suggestion to make a Chinese translation of Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition was therefore particularly welcome to me. The book is about how to plan and deliver megaprojects in ways that secure successful outcomes. Megaprojects are highly risky and often go wrong, even in China. Some have gone so wrong that people lost face, including in high places. No one wants to do megaprojects like this, with the tragedy, costs, litigation, collapse of institutions, and public humiliation it entails, negatively affecting people from ordinary citizens to the highest levels of government. This illustrates just how important it is to get megaprojects right. Megaprojects and Risk is about this: how to avoid failure and how to instead deliver megaprojects with the promised benefits, on budget and schedule, and in a safe and environmentally sound manner that improves the reputation of those involved instead of undermining it.

The book asks and answers the question of whether China is better at delivering infrastructure than other countries, as is often assumed

This edition of Megaprojects and Risk contains a new chapter not included in earlier versions of the book [co-authored with Atif Ansar, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn]. The new chapter compares performance in large Chinese infrastructure projects with the rest of the world, a topic which has not been studied before. The chapter asks and answers the question of whether China is better at delivering infrastructure than other countries, as is often assumed. The chapter also asks what the risks are of China's megaproject boom ending in a bust. Special attention is given to debt-financed megaprojects, because these are particularly perilous in terms of financial and economic risks, and because debt-financing is a common vehicle for promoting large infrastructure projects in China. It is my hope that my Chinese colleagues will read this new chapter carefully and will engage in joint discussions and research to better understand the issues raised, and how to translate our knowledge into improved policy and practice.

With the Belt and Road initiative, China is entering, for the first time, the age of the "tera-project," that is, the trillion-dollar project impacting a billion people or more. It is my hope that the ideas, data, and methods described in Megaprojects and Risk will inform future decisions on the Belt and Road initiative. It is all too easy to build megaprojects that detract from the economy instead of adding to it. Examples of this are legion. It is not enough that projects generate jobs and other economic activity while being built. Economic viability must be secured beyond the date the construction crews leave the site, which requires a solid stream of revenues, or other benefits, that keep flowing after the site has gone quiet, and that outweigh the costs incurred. Megaprojects and Risk shows how this is best done to secure long-term economic and social growth for cities, regions, and nations.

With the Belt and Road initiative, China is entering, for the first time, the age of the "tera-project"

In my home country, Denmark, the methods for megaproject planning and management described in Megaprojects and Risk have been nicknamed "megaprojects without tears." With this translation, it is my great pleasure that the methods are now available for all to use on Chinese megaprojects. If I can help with anything in that context do not hesitate to contact me.

Bent Flyvbjerg, 傅以斌

University of Oxford