The Predictive Pulse: Forecasting the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election: Will this be a repeat of 2000 and 2016?

All views are personal and do not reflect the opinion of any organization I am affiliated with.

In this new monthly series, I explore predictions on major events. To kick things off, we dive into one of the most anticipated global events: the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Could Vice President Kamala Harris secure victory over former President Donald Trump, or will history repeat itself like in the elections of 2000 and 2016?

Predicting the Popular Vote

According to current polling data, Kamala Harris maintains a slight lead over Donald Trump, with Harris polling at 48.4% compared to Trump’s 45.8% as of early October 2024( 538 polls, The Independent and 270toWin.com). Harris’s appeal to a diverse electorate, particularly in urban centers, gives her an edge in the popular vote, much like the 2016 election where Hillary Clinton secured nearly 3 million more votes than Trump, yet lost due to the Electoral College.

The Electoral College Conundrum

Winning the popular vote is not enough in U.S. presidential elections. The Electoral College will again play a decisive role in 2024, much like it did in 2000 and 2016. Both George W. Bush and Donald Trump won the presidency despite losing the popular vote.

Challenges and Risks Ahead

Swing State Volatility: Polling shows that Harris leads in key swing states like Wisconsin (+2), Nevada (+1), and Pennsylvania (+1), and she is behind in North Carolina (-1), Gorgia(-1) and Arizonia (-1) (538 polls, The Hill, 270toWin.com).

These margins could shift dramatically as Election Day approaches, given the volatility of swing state polling. Historical trends suggest swing states can see polling swings of up to 5 percentage points.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton’s narrow lead in several states evaporated on Election Day, costing her the presidency despite her popular vote victory. The NYT article on voters in swing states outlines some of the challeneges Ms Harris faces in swing states.

Geopolitical Tensions: Both the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict and unrest in the Middle East could shift voter focus toward national security. Trump’s America-first policies may resonate with voters concerned about U.S. foreign relations, while Harris’s more diplomatic approach might appeal to those seeking stability in international affairs(The Hill).

Economic Factors: Economic issues remain at the forefront of voters’ minds, with inflation, employment, and cost of living playing significant roles. Harris leads Trump on issues like healthcare and housing, but the economy continues to be a battleground where both candidates vie for the upper hand(The Independent).

Hidden Bias: As we had written about earlier, there exists a hidden bias against female and black candidates in the US. Kamala Harris, poised to become the first woman of colour to win the presidency, faces both the opportunity to make history and the challenge of overcoming entrenched biases. Though progress has been made, no woman has yet won the U.S. presidency.

Conclusion: Beating the Odds

Despite the challenges, we predict that Kamala Harris stands a strong chance not only to win the popular vote but to also secure the crucial Electoral College votes needed for victory. However, much will depend on factors such as voter turnout, the state of the economy, and geopolitical tensions, particularly in swing states where opinions are tightly contested.

My views, aligned with those of the New York Times, suggest that Harris is the most viable candidate in this race, and I believe she has the potential to make history in 2024.

What do you think, will this election could become a defining moment in U.S. history—will it echo 2016, or will 2024 be the year the U.S. elects its first woman of colour to the presidency?

Stay tuned for next month’s edition of The Predictive Pulse, where we will examine emerging economic trends and their impact on global markets.