Predictions for the state of higher ed in 2025, TikTok’s ban in the US looms and Australia fails to pass international student caps
Welcome to The Student Funnel, a monthly higher ed sector newsletter from Hybrid, a leader in student marketing and recruitment strategies. We highlight news, trends, and behaviors that impact the sector and share insights on how to better connect with your audiences.
The end of Q4 2024 naturally brought many predictions for what is to come in 2025 as well as end-of-year reports from social media and marketing giants. 2024 brought significant crackdowns on said giants, with the US forcing Google to divest Chrome and TikTok to resell or be banned, while Australia has banned social media for their teens altogether.
In this month’s edition, we round up December 2024 and look at what's on the cards for 2025. Here’s our full breakdown:?
The forecast for higher education is in, and it’s a mixed-bag
In 2025, higher education is said to face significant demographic and financial shifts:
The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) projects that the number of high school graduates will peak between 3.8 million and 3.9 million in 2025. This will be followed by a decline to approximately 3.4 million by 2041, which is a 10.3% decrease. The anticipated downturn, often referred to as the "demographic cliff," suggests a gradual reduction rather than an abrupt drop, which instead could provide institutions vital time to adapt.?
Notably, it’s predicted that only 12 US states, mostly in the South apart from the District of Columbia, are expected to see an increase in graduates by 2041, while other regions experience a potential decline.?
When it comes to the financial forecast for higher education institutions in 2025, credit rating agencies such as S&P Global Ratings offer mixed outlooks:
Moody's has a similar outlook, citing balanced revenue and expenses, though it warns that approximately one-third of private universities and 20% of public universities may face operating deficits exceeding 2%.
YouTube’s CTV success paves the way for new features
YouTube is enhancing its Connected TV (CTV) experience to cater to the growing number of users streaming content on their televisions.
Notably, watch time for sports content on TV has increased by over 30% year-over-year, and users now consume more than 400 million hours of podcasts monthly via their living room devices.
In response, YouTube is introducing features like "Watch With," allowing creators to provide live commentary during games, and a more prominent "Subscribe" button on the CTV video player, which has boosted subscriptions via TV by 40% in early tests. Additionally, a new "Parent Code" feature will enable parents to lock their profiles, ensuring children access age-appropriate content. For higher education marketers, these new features open new avenues for engagement with student audiences. With watch time for sports and podcasts surging, institutions can explore opportunities to create compelling, long-form content tailored for CTV, such as live-streamed campus events, virtual tours, or student-led discussions.
The Australian government fails to pass international student caps legislation
The Australian government has introduced Ministerial Direction 111 (MD111) to manage international student numbers after legislative attempts to impose caps were blocked. Instead, MD111 aims to regulate visa processing by pacing approvals as institutions approach their international student targets, ensuring a balanced distribution across universities.?
While not an explicit cap, MD111 is designed to control the flow of international students into Australia. This approach seeks to address concerns about over-enrollment and its impact on housing and infrastructure. However, critics argue that this method may not effectively achieve the government's objectives of managing student numbers, enhancing student quality, or diversifying demographics. On the other hand, higher education leaders (particularly from regional institutions) have welcomed the change, hoping it will alleviate financial pressures.?
This development follows the government's failed attempt to pass legislation imposing a cap of 270,000 international students, intended to mitigate the surge in numbers post-pandemic and address net migration concerns.
Social media highlights
TikTok
...continues to face an increasingly uncertain future in the US. With a looming January 19th deadline imposed by Congress, its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, could still be forced to divest ownership or face a nationwide ban over national security concerns.
But there’s a glimmer of hope. The US Supreme Court has agreed to hear TikTok's appeal on January 10, but this is just days before the deadline. However, President-elect Donald Trump, who previously sought to ban TikTok in 2020, has indicated a willingness to negotiate a solution that might allow the app to continue operating under certain conditions.?
As the deadline approaches, TikTok's operations in the US remain in jeopardy, but could there still be hope for the much-loved platform?
Across the pond, TikTok has announced new measures to enhance the safety of young users in the European Union. The platform reports removing approximately 6 million accounts monthly worldwide for not meeting the minimum age requirement. To further protect its 175 million EU users, TikTok is:
As the platform tightens restrictions and emphasizes safety and mental health, marketers might find it more challenging to engage younger users directly. Instead, focusing efforts on marketing to parents, by highlighting values like student well-being, safety, and a supportive educational environment could be a more effective approach.
Threads
...had a big 2024. The platform surpassed 300 million monthly active users, adding over 200 million in 2024 alone.
In November, Threads led iOS app downloads, maintaining its position as the most downloaded app on the platform.
But despite this rapid growth, Threads still faces challenges in user retention and engagement, with daily active users comprising only 33% of its monthly user base. In comparison, X (formerly Twitter) reported a 44% ratio.
To address these challenges, the Threads team is actively seeking user feedback to enhance algorithms and content moderation policies. Recent updates include improved link previews and new reaction icons, indicating a commitment to refining the user experience.?
The app’s trajectory suggests it’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Does this mean on-platform advertising is on the cards for 2025?
X
...on the other hand, reported a 10% year-over-year increase in daily active user seconds, totalling 364 billion per day. This equates to an average of 24 minutes per user daily, based on 250 million daily active users.?
However, this is a decrease from the 30 minutes per day reported in March 2024, and lower than the 38 minutes per day observed in previous years.?
These figures suggest that while X maintains substantial user engagement, the average time spent per user has declined compared to earlier periods. The platform's shift to reporting cumulative active user seconds may also indicate changes in user behaviour.
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