Predictions for Media and technology trends in 2022 by Nic Newman

1. The Business of Journalism is Looking Up for Some

In 2021, despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the continued decay in printed publication revenues, 59% of Publishers surveyed had reported growth in revenue while 8% only have reported losses.

That is proof that the media industry is adapting as it diversifies its sources of income by introducing subscriptions, e-commerce, digital events, and licensing.

Also, for all publishers, online shopping has grown substantially because of the pandemic, causing a sharp rise in Digital advertising (30% year on year) in 2021, accounting for 64% of advertising budgets. ???

Bear in mind that many publishers not included in this survey still rely mainly on printed publications and broadcasts as the primary source of their income which makes their future so gloomy if they don’t have a prospect digital path.

According to industry data, online news consumption has declined in the UK and US as many users have grown weary of the gloomy nature of the news recently, which has caused them to turn to social media and streaming services for entertainment and distraction. Yet our survey has shown mixed results; 54% have shown a decline in consumption while 44% have shown growth.

Also, the survey has shown the publishers’ significant increase in optimism about the future of online news (73%) as they believe that the trust in their outlets has risen.

Meanwhile, the data has shown that confidence in journalism is a bit lower, especially in countries with political turmoil and economic problems.

1.1?subscription models have reached maturity.

One of the reasons that have grown The publishers' confidence is the gradual growth in subscriptions during the pandemics for early adopters like the New York Times and digital publishers like Spain's El Diario, Malaysia's Malaysian, and South Africa's the Daily Maverick.

Publishers surveyed consider the subscription as their primary revenue focus (79%), followed by advertisements (73% & 59%), events (40%) and platforms funding (29%).

Yet no one business model fits all publishers; some publishers experiment with introducing new services to diversify their revenue stream. Many publishers surveyed believe they need to have 3 to 4 different revenue streams to sustain and grow.

There is also this belief that to maintain the growth of the online publishing industry; there needs to be more accessible consumption model content and develop ways to increase the engagement of the younger audience and less educated groups.

So, what is expected in 2022, Publishers will develop new promotion packages for the less served audience groups; an example of these promotions is the Daily Maverick's pay what you can afford the membership. Portugal's lottery funding of 20,000 digital news subscriptions and el Diario's pay nothing subscription.

Also, publishers are expected to fight subscription fatigues by introducing product extensions and bundles that can grow the appeal of the digital publication and drive more subscriptions. Examples of that are the New York Times bundling its crosswords, cooking product review apps in their subscription, and offering paid podcasts and audiobooks subscription bundles to users.

1.2 The Creator Economy and the Battle for Talent

Two commanding ideas have emerged in the digital publishing industry: the first is the need for subscriptions, and the second is that journalists need to act like social influencers to sustain and grow their reach.

Those ideas are the driving catalysts of the rising Creator Economy, taking Substance as an example. The newsletter-focused platform enables writers, vloggers, and podcasters to earn significant amounts of money (in some cases, 6 figure sums) by providing paid newsletters to subscribers. Following the same path, Facebook (Bulletin) and Twitter ( Revue) have introduced their own paid newsletter platforms were features like super follow subscriptions and financial rewards for the most engaging content. In 2022, more mainstream media is expected to poach talented writers and introduce paid newsletters and podcasts on their digital platforms, for example, the Atlantic Charlie Warzel Newsletter. Applications for those ideas will develop a new realm where content is prioritised according to what gets the most attention. An example of that model is Puck, a digital platform where subscribers get access to emails across various subjects, access to events, and personal access to writers for an annual fee. Puck has an algorithm that works out how to reward those driving the most revenue. Eventually, given the growing demand for these services, journalists will start to ask for a revenue share with the publishers in subscriptions and advertisements.

All this activity is creating more and more content, but the big question is whether there are enough people with sufficient interest to pay for all but the star writers and podcasters.

1.3??????????Make or Break Year for Digital Media Brands

The original disrupters of digital media, like Buzzfeed, Vice and Vox, were thought of as the rising stars of digital media, yet in the last couple of years, because of the pandemic and changes in the Facebook algorithms and legacy organisation's growing investments in digital media. This has caused star digital media journalists to return to those legacy media organisations.

Leaving the digital media original disrupters battling with other platforms for general readers and advertising money. When it comes to what to expect in 2022, 3 main trends are expected to grow this year,

Digital media natives will attempt to consolidate to help them compete with the advertising giants (Facebook and Google).

Legacy media organisations will acquire successful digital platforms to expand their portfolio and earn revenues. An example of that is the New York Times acquisition of The Athletic (the 1 million subscribers Digital sports news Platform)

Local digital news start-ups will continue to grow and diversify.

2. Audience Strategies and Publisher Innovation?

While some media firms focus on advertising and others on subscriptions, both models rely on a deeper connection with viewers through websites, apps, newsletters, and podcasts. This year, more resources will be put into audio and newsletters regarding audience-facing innovation. In addition, this graph provides more information.

2.1 Audio Everywhere

Growing consumption of digital audio has been a trend for a few years, driven by smartphones, better headphones, and investment in podcasts from platforms like Spotify, Google, and Amazon. But in the last year, we’ve seen the rapid development of a much more comprehensive range of digital formats such as audio articles, flash briefings, audio messages, and living formats such as social audio.

The rise (and fall) of Clubhouse, known as the first ‘AirPods social network’, has been well documented. Still, almost all the major platforms, such as Twitter (Spaces), Facebook (Live Audio Rooms), and Reddit (Talk), quickly produced clones to allow users to create impromptu discussions and events.

What Will happen this year in audio?

More publishers look to become audio destinations of their own: With audio becoming more central, the battle is on between competing platforms and publishers to control the total customer experience.

Second, coming for paid podcast platforms: Paid features from Apple and Spotify will open up the market for individual creators and publishers alike this year. Options include offering free and paid content, including bonus episodes for super fans. Unlike Apple, Spotify is not taking a cut for the first two years in a bid to encourage the best talent. Independent podcast platforms are also quietly creating alternatives, especially in smaller markets.

2.2 Get Set for Another Pivot to Video

The first pivot to video was partly driven by new social media formats like Facebook Live but quickly faded after the platforms lost interest. Now live video is booming again, partly fuelled by COVID news conferences and dramatic events like the storming of the US Capitol. In contrast, the short-form video has been revitalised by the creativity and dynamic growth of TikTok.Our own Digital News Report found that TikTok now reaches a quarter (24%) of under-35s,

with 7% using the platform for news – even more in parts of Asia and South America. But our research also found that, when it comes to news, it is mainly influencers and celebrities that people are paying attention to – raising questions about how and whether journalists and news brands should engage on this platform.16

Why does this matter for journalism?

Publishers are increasingly worried about how to attract younger audiences, and many see native video formats as part of the answer.

Our survey shows an apparent change in direction regarding the third-party platforms being prioritised this year. Publishers say they will be putting much more effort into Instagram (net score of +54), TikTok (+44), and YouTube (+43), all networks that lead with visual and video content, and less effort into general-purpose networks like Twitter (-5) and Facebook (-8).

News on TikTok remains a battleground:

One start-up looking to counter misinformation on TikTok and other social platforms is the News Movement, founded by former executives from Dow Jones and the BBC. The service aims to deliver trustworthy and objective information in 2022 to mass audiences on social media, with accessible video explainers and text. The News Movement is staffed by young journalists and will operate across TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, Facebook and Twitter.

2.3 Publishers Identify Blockers to Innovation

Most survey respondents are clear that the main focus this year should be on iterating and improving existing products (67%) rather than investing in new technologies or services (32%). News products have often fallen far short. This is partly because publishers have less money available for risky investments and because most publishers now have a clear path on which they are set. A good starting point is to ensure that existing digital products are as seamless and engaging as those produced by tech platforms.

Publishers recognise that innovation is critical in making sure that they stay relevant as audience behaviours continue to shift. But our survey suggests that, although the strategy is often clear, delivering planned improvements can be a different issue.

In our Changing Newsrooms report, we found the most significant concerns about talent were around software engineers and data scientists. Around half (51%) of our sample of publishers say that they don’t have enough money to invest in innovation this year, partly due to budget cuts imposed during COVID. A similar proportion says they struggle to hire or keep enough technical, design, or data staff to deliver solutions.

5. What’s Next??

Terms like artificial intelligence, Web3, crypto, NFTs, and the metaverse will be heard more and more in the year ahead, but what relevance do they have for journalism??

5.1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Intelligent Automation?

AI technologies are integrated into every aspect of news production; 85% of publishers surveyed consider it essential in delivering customized tailored content to their customers, also 81% consider it an integral component of an efficient newsroom, others (70%) consider it essential in the research and data gathering in investigative journalism. Also, it is used in robo journalism and setting commercial strategies (69%).

AI in 2022

A new approach to content management:

Content management systems that are built on the principle of nested blocks allowing better connections and limitless ?reassembling content techniques, e.g. Washington post-Arc and BBC Optimo

Other AI trends to watch this year

Bridging the AI divide:

Faster progress in natural language processing as more organisations invest resources and collaborate with academics and design their system, examples of that la Nacion in Argentina and Inkyfada in Tunisia.

Productisation eases take-up: Tools such as Trint for automatic transcription, Pinpoint for investigations, and Echobox for identifying the right content to post in social media at the time right time, are also helping to make it easier for smaller newsrooms to get started. Publishers

in Scandinavia and elsewhere have developed newsroom tools that identify the gender balance within output to inform editors how well they are representing target audiences. The integration of these tools into content systems will make AI far more accessible and useful this year.

Cooperation and learning: Programmes to share best practicess such as the Journalism AI collaboration programme from LSE’s Polis and INMA’s AI webinars and showcases are also helping spread knowledge, enabling small teams to build confidence. The Journalism AI network also enables mentoring for those just starting their AI journeys.35

Improving AI reporting literacy: As with climate change reporting, there is a skills gap around understanding and reporting. AI is throwing up many issues around algorithmic bias, ethics, and regulation, but most journalists don’t have the necessary expertise to hold the big companies to account. One example of what skills might be needed comes from The Markup and its Citizen Browser project, which involved engaging a paid panel of Facebook users prepared to share the content of their news feed.36 This required the publication to analyse huge amounts of data to counter Facebook’s claim that right-wing content, for example, has been getting less popular on the platform.

Holding algorithms to account: The Markup

5.2 The Metaverse?

Facebook changed its name last year to Meta to signal its focus on the metaverse, which Mark Zuckerberg thinks will be the successor to the mobile internet. Others are deeply sceptical, not least because most of the building blocks have still to be put in place and there are so many different visions of what it might be.

Metaverse Today broadly describes shared online virtual world environments, many of which already exist in some form (e.g. Second Life, Roblox) but will gradually become more lifelike through the addition of virtual reality (VR) or augmented reality (AR). Others link cryptocurrencies to the concept because in some types of metaverse users buy and trade digital assets based on blockchain technology.?

What may happen this year??

Reporting of the metaverse will become more ‘meta’: Expect to see more interviews done in the metaverse itself as the companies themselves try to sell their vision and journalists try, literally, to get their heads around the concept. Journalists have been extremely sceptical so far, partly because of the vagueness of the ideas and partly because the charge is being led by those who created Facebook.?

Just?after Facebook rebranded as Meta, Microsoft?reported?it would be bringing the capabilities of?Work, its collaborative virtual?stage, to Microsoft?Groups?in 2022. This will?empower?vivified?3D avatars and?intelligent?will work with or without a VR headset. Over time Microsoft says that avatars will?begin?to require?more?similar?facial expressions?through?signals from webcams. Facebook/Meta?is additionally?centring?on the?venture?space, with?Skyline?Workroom?connected?to its?claim?Oculus VR headsets. Avatars can?associate?and draw on whiteboards together,?whereas?directional?sound?will?increment?the sense of?nearness.

Sports and news?occasions?scope:?A few?of?the foremost?excited?early adopters have been?uncommon?occasions?makers?in?tv?who are?continuously?on the?post?for?unused?strategies?to?improve?scope. Broadcasters are?receiving?blended?reality studios, such as Eurosport’s?3d shape?that?permits?has?to see and?connected?with?substance?around them and to bring celebrities into the studio space from?distinctive?areas.

Distribution opportunities for news:?

the challenges of content moderation and oversight that already plague social media could get even worse in spaces powered by VR and AR. An early metaverse demo, for example, was disrupted by a bot spewing misinformation about the dangers of vaccines. Experiences from other nascent virtual worlds also reveal extensive problems with racism, homophobia, and other forms of hate speech.37?

5.3 Web3, Crypto, and NFTs?

As we’ve already discussed, the development of the metaverse is closely linked with virtual currencies and the idea that digital objects and experiences can be bought and sold in a safe and secure way. This shift is sometimes linked to the next stage of the development of the web which has seen control shift from (1) old gatekeepers to (2) tech platforms and intermediaries and now potentially to (3) individual users and creators themselves. The chart on the next page shows how analyst Benedict Evans describes the possibilities in his annual state of technology presentation.38?

NFTS

The term describes a unique certificate that can record the ownership of any digital item such as an artwork, a photograph, or even an original news story. This is lodged in a decentralised public blockchain which serves as a record of ownership.?

What may happen this year?

Making NFTs more accessible: This year we can expect to see more uses of NFTs that go beyond art speculation. Publishers could start experimenting with monetising archives that mention family members, or coming up with and auctioning unique membership benefits. That in turn will require a step-change in ease of use and ways of accessing the technology.?

6. Conclusions?

This year’s report and survey show many publishers more determined than ever to refocus their businesses on digital?

Achieving that will require a laser focus on meeting audience needs, both with content that helps users navigate an increasingly uncertain world but also with products that are more convenient, more relevant, and built around communities of interest. This is why publishers are focusing innovation around their core services as a priority this year, investing in formats like email and audio that are proven to generate loyalty and quality time.?

With a new generation of editors coming through, we will see more focused attempts to engage younger audiences – as well as disaffected ones – with more constructive journalism, as well as by explaining stories better using visuals and data, building on lessons learnt during COVID-19.?

Sports and news?occasions?scope:?A few?of?the foremost?excited?early adopters have been?uncommon?occasions?makers?in?tv?who are?continuously?on the?post?for?unused?strategies?to?improve?scope. Broadcasters are?receiving?blended?reality studios, such as Eurosport’s?3d shape?that?permits?has?to see and?connected?with?substance?around them and to bring celebrities into the studio space from?distinctive?areas.

The article is a summary of the Journalism, Media, and Technology Trends and Predictions 2022?report by Nic Newman?