7 Predictions for the Future of Canadian Post-Secondary: Changes from a Failure of Federal Policy

#CdnPoli HigherEd #InternationalStudents #SupportColleges #Immigration #CdnPSE #LocalEconomies #LabourShortages #ImmigrationSystem

By Dennis Johnson

October 4, 2024

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Disclaimer: A Generalization with a Dash of Opinion

This article provides a broad overview of the challenges now facing Canadian post-secondary education, with a particular focus on the impact of recent international student policy changes. It’s not a detailed analysis of every institution or province, so if your experience differs, I invite you to read along, reflect and share in the comments. The perspectives shared here are my own, not intended to provoke, but to encourage thoughtful dialogue. Feel free to disagree or contribute to the conversation. After all, this complex issue affects us all, and only through open discussion can we explore the path forward.

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As someone who recently took early retirement from my role as a college president and now works as a consultant with post-secondary leaders, I have grown increasingly concerned about the long-term sustainability of Canadian institutions. The recent changes announced by Minister Miller on September 18th have only deepened these concerns.

There were a number of cracks in the system but the rapid growth of international student numbers, particularly in Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area, brought this issue to a head. By the end of 2023, Canada was hosting over one million international students, with a 30% year-over-year increase in the two years preceding the January 2024 announcement of a cap. Since the January cap and even before the latest policy shift, many institutions were already seeing significant declines in application rates due to Canada's waning reputation. The additional rule changes introduced on September 18th have poured gasoline on the decline.

While many voices are rightfully critiquing the heavy handedness of these federal policy shifts and highlighting the crisis they have triggered, I believe it’s equally important to look ahead and consider the future implications for Canadian post-secondary education. Instead of focusing solely on the federal policy failure, we need to ask: what comes next? How will institutions navigate this new reality? This article offers some predictions about what lies ahead for the sector, based on my experience, lessons from other countries and emerging discussions.

Note: If you would like some additional information and perspectives, I have included links to some selected articles and op eds at the end of this document.

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Prediction 1: The Federal Government Will Not Back Down—and May Impose Further Restrictions

Despite the current backlash form post-secondary leadership, it is highly unlikely that the federal government will retreat from its current stance on international student policy. In fact, further restrictions may be just around the corner. As the country moves toward an election, the federal government is under increasing pressure to address critical issues like housing affordability and healthcare access, both of which are being linked by some to the increase in temporary workers and the influx of international students.

The federal government has set a goal to reduce the percentage of temporary residents from the current 6.5% of Canada’s population to 5%. However, a recent Bloomberg article suggests that the actual proportion of temporary residents has already reached 7.3%. Despite the introduction of visa caps and rule changes, this number is expected to rise further as individuals already in the pipeline continue to enter the country.

Public sentiment also appears to be shifting toward tighter controls. An Abacus Data poll shows that the cost of living (71%), housing affordability (46%), and immigration (27%) rank as Canadians' top concerns. Given these pressures, it is likely the federal government will double down on its efforts to limit temporary residents, including international students.

The challenges surrounding the international student program have been evident for some time, and many post-secondary leaders supported the idea of thoughtful policy reform. Numerous stakeholders, including national associations, have met with IRCC or provided input to guide policy development. I was personally involved in three different meetings with IRCC in 2023, one of which included Minister Miller. Unfortunately, rather than listening and adopting a strategic, nuanced approach, the government has implemented blunt measures that will have long-term consequences for the sector.

Compounding this issue is the lack of collaboration between federal and provincial governments, which has only worsened the situation. Ideally, both levels of government would have engaged in meaningful dialogue and planning before enacting such sweeping changes. However, given the current political climate and focus on short-term politics, improved cooperation seems unlikely in the near term.

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Prediction 2: Provincial Governments Will Be Forced to Take Responsibility

Provinces are already being pressured to increase funding to offset the revenue losses that institutions will face due to shrinking international enrollments. However, any additional funding—if it materializes at all—will likely fall far short of what is required to maintain the status quo. While much of the current criticism is aimed at the federal government, provincial governments will soon find themselves in the spotlight, forced to take ownership of the future of their educational institutions. And anyone expecting purely positive attention will likely be disappointed.

The level of intervention required will vary significantly by province, influenced by factors such as existing provincial funding levels and institutional dependence on international tuition. Some provinces and institutions are better positioned to handle the fallout, while others—particularly in Ontario, British Columbia, and Nova Scotia—are far more vulnerable. Nevertheless, all provinces will feel the negative impacts, and their governments will be compelled to respond.

Historically, when governments face rising costs for higher education, the conversation often shifts toward cost-saving measures, value for money, and debates about efficiency. This scenario is almost certain to unfold once again, with provincial governments likely to use the current crisis as an opportunity to scrutinize the post-secondary sector and push for cost reductions.

While the idea of mergers or partnerships between struggling institutions may seem far-fetched to some, this option is already being discussed. The rapid expansion to accommodate international students has left many institutions with excess capacity, far beyond what is required for domestic students. Smaller institutions, in particular, will struggle to manage the loss of international students and tuition and may be forced to consolidate. Provincial governments may explore ways to reduce overhead while maintaining a minimum level of access, especially in rural areas. Some urban areas will have an excess of capacity and could also be under pressure. Restructuring efforts will target perceived inefficiencies, and difficult decisions regarding which programs, services, and campuses will survive are inevitable.

That said, a key condition for a successful transition to a system that is less dependant on international will be that provincial governments rise above the kind of short-term and highly divisive policy responses we’ve seen so far. Instead, they must work together with institutions to support a framework that allows for a purposeful evolution—one that is not wholly crisis-driven or dominated by reactionary measures. If governments can develop a strategic path forward, rather than simply responding to immediate political pressures, the post-secondary sector may emerge more resilient. However, this requires a level of long-term planning and collaboration that has been sorely lacking to date.

There will be immense pressure on provinces to act swiftly, and hastily made policy decisions rarely satisfy anyone. Institutions and their respective associations must work proactively to present their provincial governments with viable solutions. This is no small task, but leaving policy development solely in the hands of provincial governments carries significant risks. It’s imperative that we move beyond crisis management and build a more stable, sustainable future for higher education.

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Prediction 3: A Renewed Focus on Domestic Recruitment and Retention Strategies

With the shrinking pool of international students, Canadian institutions will need to intensify their focus on domestic student recruitment and retention. This will require a broader strategy that targets not only traditional high school graduates but also non-traditional and mature learners. Institutions will need to invest in professional enrollment practices, such as Strategic Enrollment Management (SEM) and Strategic Enrollment Planning (SEP), to improve student conversion rates and guide them through to graduation. However, adoption of these frameworks varies across the sector, with some institutions already highly developed in these areas while others still need to build capacity, especially as resources shrink.

To offset the decline in international enrollment, institutions must tap into underserved domestic populations, including mature learners, working adults, and underrepresented groups. A key approach will be developing clear and accessible pathways for non-traditional students. This could involve innovative training programs, flexible certification pathways, and alternate delivery methods such as online learning, hybrid models, and modular course formats that fit the schedules of working adults or those seeking career changes. Institutions that offer stackable credentials and accelerated programs will be more attractive to mature learners seeking practical skills and qualifications.

Flexible scheduling options, including evening, weekend, and part-time programs, will be crucial in attracting these learners. Additionally, recognizing prior learning and experience through credits or fast-tracked programs can significantly reduce barriers for mature students looking to re-enter the education system. Retention strategies must be equally robust, focusing on support services that help non-traditional learners balance their education with other life responsibilities.

Competition to attract domestic students will increase, particularly in urban areas where multiple institutions compete for the same pool of students. Institutions with mature enrollment processes and established support systems will have a competitive edge over those still developing these capabilities. In response, some may adopt American-style recruitment practices, placing greater emphasis on marketing, outreach, and relationship-building with prospective students.

A key area for innovation is improving the transition from high school to post-secondary education, particularly for underrepresented groups such as Indigenous learners and students from lower socio-economic backgrounds. Strengthening partnerships between high schools and post-secondary institutions will be essential in making this transition smoother. Programs like dual credit, where high school students can take college or university courses and earn credits toward both their high school diploma and a post-secondary credential, have proven effective in improving post-secondary participation rates. Expanding these programs would ease the transition for more students, better preparing them for academic success at the post-secondary level.

Ultimately, attracting a more diverse range of domestic students will require institutions to adopt a more flexible, student-centered approach. By focusing on pathways that cater to non-traditional and mature learners, as well as expanding access to innovative training and alternate delivery models, Canadian institutions can build a more resilient and diverse student population in the years ahead. However, this will not replace the tuition revenue previously provided by international students.

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Prediction 4: Leadership Will Face Difficult Conversations About Institutional Purpose and Future

Leaders of colleges, polytechnics and universities, along with their governing boards, will soon face tough conversations about the viability and sustainability of their institutions. With revenue declining and resources shrinking, institutional leaders will need to reassess their core priorities and align them with new financial and demographic realities.

Strategic recalibration will be essential. Leaders will need to engage stakeholders, gather and analyze data, seek innovative solutions, and communicate the difficult decisions that will inevitably follow. Expect institutional strategic plans to be revised, with fewer long-term ambitions and more foundational priorities. This shift will challenge institutions to rethink the scope of their missions and the roles they can reasonably play in their communities and regions.

Effective communication and transparency will be critical. Unions and students will voice concerns and will initiate their own lobbying efforts. Unions, for example, may argue that the number of administrative positions is excessive and that cuts should focus there—a frequent criticism in discussions about post-secondary governance. They will work hard to protect their members' jobs and will likely oppose any layoffs for unionized faculty and staff altogether. Students, on the other hand, will likely argue that domestic tuition should not be increased and all programs and services maintained, regardless of institutional or provincial financial challenges.

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Prediction 5: There Will Be Renewed Interest in Efficiency and Value, as well as Program and Core Service Reviews

To remain competitive and sustainable, institutions will need to focus on cost effectiveness, efficiency and improved management practices. Evidence-based program reviews will become a top priority as institutions work to align their offerings with domestic enrolment, labor market demands and financial viability.

For example, books like Prioritizing Academic Programs and Services by Robert C. Dickeson may become essential reading for institutional leaders as program rationalization moves to the forefront. Some programs will be scaled back or eliminated, while others will be redesigned to better meet local needs. These efforts will likely be controversial, with resistance from unions, senates and academic councils. Partnerships with employers will be vital in ensuring programs remain relevant, providing students with applied learning opportunities tied directly to job prospects.

Budgeting practices will also need to be rethought. Traditional incremental budgeting or across-the-board cost-cutting will not suffice. Instead, institutions must adopt more strategic, data-driven budgeting models, finding savings and aligning resources with their highest-priority areas.

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Prediction 6: Institutions Will Adapt to the Federal High-Demand Occupations List

Institutions that hope to regain international students, and particularly colleges, will need to realign their offerings to match the federal government’s high-demand occupations list (which is currently scheduled to be released on November 1st). However, this alignment will be challenging for many institutions, especially those in regions where local employment opportunities do not match federal priorities.

From statements by the Minister, it appears that graduates of non-degree programs in fields like business and hospitality will no longer be eligible for Post-Graduation Work Permits (PGWPs). As a result, these programs, which have historically enrolled the highest number of international students at many colleges, are likely to see a sharp decline in enrollment. For institutions heavily reliant on these programs, this policy change will be a significant blow.

On the other hand, as of today, I am hearing that universities will fair far better as many more university programs will be eligible for PGWPs than college programs. This will make the work ahead for colleges even more challenging.

Institutions that already offer programs in high-demand sectors will be better positioned to recover their enrollment numbers more quickly. These institutions won’t need to develop as many entirely new programs to meet the eligibility criteria for PGWPs, giving them a distinct advantage over institutions that must start from scratch to design and launch programs aligned with federal labor market priorities.

One-year entry-level or foundation trades programs are also likely to receive increased attention, given the federal government's statements on addressing shortages in skilled trades. However, the current IRCC rules present a barrier to attracting international students to these programs, as they don’t meet the eligibility requirements for three-year PGWPs. To fully tap into the potential of these trades programs, IRCC will need to revise its policies to allow for greater flexibility in work permit eligibility, making them more attractive to international students.

However, no matter what programs are developed, attracting new international students will still remain a challenge for several years. The recent policy changes have tarnished Canada’s reputation as a leading destination for international education, particularly in major markets like India. In fact, reports indicate that some recruitment agents in India have already shut down, citing reduced interest in Canadian institutions.

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Prediction 7: Innovation Will Shape the Future

Despite these challenges, I firmly believe that Canadian institutions will use this crisis as an opportunity for improvement, innovation and change. We are likely entering one of the most transformative periods in Canadian post-secondary education in decades, as institutions rethink their business models, improve operations, professionalize management practices, and adapt their priorities and program offerings to align with new realities.

Evidence from other countries suggests that adversity can be a powerful driver of innovation and change. Institutions that are proactive and adaptable will emerge stronger, more efficient, and more sustainable in the long run.

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Final Thoughts

The recent policy changes announced by Minister Miller mark a pivotal shift for Canada’s International Student Program, drastically reducing what was once a financial lifeline for many institutions. The future of the post-secondary education system is at risk, and without coordinated action, both the viability of institutions and opportunities for future learners are in question.

Post-secondary institutions must urgently demonstrate to policymakers the strategic value of the public system. In a time of economic and social challenges, post-secondary education is not just a cost but also a critical asset for the country’s future. Grassroots, institution level innovation is necessary but alone will not suffice—national and provincial collaboration is essential to ensure long-term sustainability.

Fortunately, provincial and national associations can serve as platforms for sharing solutions and fostering collaboration across institutions. This crisis presents an opportunity for these organizations to help the sector work together, share best practices, and reshape higher education.

Governments must look beyond short-term, divisive policies and provide the resources and strategic vision needed for real progress. The decisions made today will shape the future for generations, making it crucial to prioritize long-term planning over partisan politics to secure a stronger, more resilient system.

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These are my thoughts, but I encourage others to contribute to this critical conversation. What have I missed? Where should we expand the focus? Feel free to share your comments or direct message me. I plan to post additional articles exploring related topics and welcome ideas and suggestions for future discussions.

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Suggested Articles and Opinion

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Alex Usher—Marc Miller Strikes Again

September 23, 2024

https://higheredstrategy.com/marc-miller-strikes-again/

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Alex Usher—No One is Coming to Save Us

June 12, 2024

https://higheredstrategy.com/no-one-is-coming-to-save-us/

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CICan’s Statement on International Student Reforms

Ottawa, September 18, 2024

https://www.collegesinstitutes.ca/news-release/cicans-statement-on-international-student-reforms/

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University Affairs—Federal government further reduces cap on international student study permits—September 20

https://universityaffairs.ca/news/news-article/federal-government-further-reduces-cap-on-international-student-study-permits/

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Canada further reducing the number of international student permits—

Liberal government to slash number of permits by 10 per cent—September 18

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/inernational-student-permits-canada-1.7326996

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NBCC says cuts to work permits for international students 'ludicrous'

Federal changes add more restrictions to post-graduation work permits, but don't apply to universities—Hannah Rudderham · CBC News · Posted: Sep 25

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/community-colleges-post-graduation-work-permit-1.7333765

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Opinion | I’m the president of a major Canadian university: Here’s what we all stand to lose if we keep cutting off international students

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/im-the-president-of-a-major-canadian-university-heres-what-we-all-stand-to-lose/article_169a8ff6-778d-11ef-88b4-4bafc3ba3d11.html

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