Predictions from surveys
A quick guide to political polling
Political polls can make for interesting and often exciting reading. But before you get too excited, can we use them to know who will win the next election?
The simple answer is no. And here is why.
The polls give an indication of preferences based on a sample of individuals. Those numbers are then used to digest what the overall picture *might* look like. But remember, it is a sample.
The other issue is that the distribution of that sample. Despite the best efforts of pollsters, that sample is never evenly distributed across the whole country. It makes predicting who will win local seats quite tricky because peaks and troughs of support will influence local results.
Because local seats are based not just on preference of political party but also local opinions of issues and candidates. I can recall a seat in the 1997 General Election that had been held by a party for over 60 years yet a local candidate beat a future Prime Minister because of the local connection.
Much like a google review of coffee shops, the party might be great but the local candidate hopeless (or the other way around).
Polls provide insights but they don’t give definitive answers. The only way we find out is by holding the election.