Predictions for 2024 Sure to Go… Right?
Last year my predictions were pretty spot on . The only one I missed on was that one brand would go defunct. That somehow didn’t happen.
As I look to the year ahead there are two clear overall trends I see coming our way.
?First, new car inventories are essentially normal. Let’s not use the phrase “return to normal” moving forward. Dealers are selling cars like they used to and while they may have gained efficiency over the past few years, they want to move from one deal to the next as swiftly and seamlessly as possible.
Second, electric vehicles are going from a year of backlash in 2023 to outright disdain in 2024. Tax incentives remain murky with their materials requirements, non-Tesla EVs will have outdated charging ports as NACS becomes the de facto standard in 2025 and frankly half the country by pure political persuasion doesn’t seem to like them no matter how fantastic they may be. The parade of negative headlines will even outpace this year.
OK, with that all said here are my predictions for 2024.
1.???? We’ll hit 16 million new cars sold. This year the industry hovered right around 15.5M and sometimes 16M SAAR for months with the final tally around 15.6M. And this was with tight credit, high interest rates and early in the year, tight inventories. This year it will be hard to hide the strength of the U.S. economy behind negative headlines. There’s likely no recession coming (knock on wood) as there hasn’t been the past two years everyone kept saying it was imminent. Credit and interest rates should relax, getting sidelined shoppers back in the market. And people will be turned off by politics and want to go on with their lives and buying a new car is a great way to do that. Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if sales are even higher than 16M, although I wouldn’t expect them to blast past 16.5M. FYI, others predicted 2023 sales of 14.3M a year ago.
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2.???? It will be a horrible, no good year for electric vehicles. While I expect EV sales to continue to grow, that is really just a function of them starting from zero. If they were at 1.2M units this year they’ll easily hit 1.3M right? I’d even say they could hit 2M. But the headlines won’t be positive no matter the sales. And there aren’t a lot of highly anticipated EVs coming to the market that will scale. The only mass-market EV with a sub-$40K sticker price seems to be the Chevy Equinox EV…which won’t debut with its most affordable version. And how much longer can Tesla sell the aging Model Y in such volume? Otherwise, new EVs I expect to be popular like the Kia EV9, Porsche Macan, Volvo XC90 and VW ID.Buzz simply won’t be able to generate the volume to move the big number past 2M.
*A bonus prediction, I think the Kia EV9 will become the best-selling non-Tesla EV on the market, essentially selling out of whatever supply they can generate from Korea manufacturing (folks in California will pay over sticker early on). Then, once it is eligible for the tax incentive when the Georgia plant is ready to roll them out, expect volume to expand and sales distribution to even out. ?
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3.???? 2024 will be the year of giant SUVs. I know, what’s new with that? But when you look at what’s expected on tap for the year that isn’t electric, it is big and it is boxy. And I think they’re all going to sell. Gas prices are falling and people aren’t afraid to spend on a new vehicle. That’s why you’re going to have a hard time securing a new Toyota Land Cruiser or Lexus GX. Similarly, the “blocky in a good way” Hyundai Santa Fe got bigger. The new Nissan/Infiniti Armada/QX are coming. Ford’s got a new Expedition to compete with the updated GM full-size trio of Chevy Tahoe/GMC Yukon/GMC Suburban. Shhh…don’t tell anyone how well the current versions are selling with their 17 mpg combined. Heck, even the Mini Countryman is its biggest ever.
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4.???? There will be a battle around Chinese car brands. Every year since I’ve worked in the auto industry, I can recall the idea that “the Chinese are coming” and they’ll completely disrupt the status quo. It has been literal decades now and while there is Chinese ownership of brands like Volvo, this hasn’t really happened. But this year I think will be different. The most affordable EVs in the world are Chinese and Chinese brands have indeed thrown the Mexican auto market into disarray. The foothold in Mexico is seen as an entry to the U.S. but there’s one thing America has that Mexico doesn’t. Politicians who love to demonize China.
Right or wrong, high tariffs are keeping Chinese EVs at bay. GM and Volvo are only allowed to sell Chinese-made vehicles without tariffs because they export more cars from the U.S. than they import from China. But if Chinese automakers build in Mexico, can they escape the tariffs? Will their Chinese-made EVs be so cheap that they’ll still be affordable even with the tariffs? I expect politicians from both sides of the aisle to draw up legislation, or at least threaten it, to prevent both from happening.
Notice, I’m not saying this should or should not happen, I just expect it to. But I also don’t see anything wrong with protecting an industry that is so influential to the country’s overall economic health.
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5.???? Many EV start-ups will finally putter out. Look, it was a good run. We saw a bunch of interesting ideas from a wide array of visionary thinkers and a few even built some cars. But in 2024 I expect a few to finally throw in the towel. Fisker is the clearest example. I just can’t see enough buyers there despite the nifty designs and smart manufacturing outsourcing. Can Canoo really make it long enough where we’ll ever see that cute little bulldog truck? Sadly, probably not. Delorean? Karma? Really?
Lucid and Rivian are the bigger questions. I think Rivian is safe. It’s proven itself as a manufacturer and legitimate company. If they do get an R2 to market in 2025 it should see a lot of takers. Lucid, I’m just not sure about. I like the new Gravity SUV (also, they’re killing it with their model names) but how many wealthy buyers are out there willing to pick one over a legacy luxury brand like BMW or Mercedes-Benz?
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David is the director of content marketing at CDK Global, a leading automotive software supplier to OEMs and dealers. He has spent nearly 20 years in the automotive industry as a product evaluator, journalist and marketer for brands like Autoblog, Cars.com , Nissan and Harley Davidson. In that time, David has tested hundreds of vehicles across all types of tracks and terrain. All opinions above are purely his own.
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Manager, Product and Consumer Insights at AutoPacific
10 个月These are spot-on predictions. I think especially as it relates to EV sales, we of course will see growth but I think it's going to be a slow trickle and at a pace far behind last year's sales. 2024 is a hostile one for EV shoppers, both in regard to the cluster mess that is the IRS's eligibility requirements and the upcoming election. While they shouldn't be, EVs are too (immaturely) politicized and the result come November could severely halt any progress.
Senior Writer at Postmedia Driving.ca, senior writer at Motorcycle Mojo magazine
10 个月Pretty spot on, David. I do have to wonder about the Chinese question though. US tariffs are huge and, if recent decisions from the Biden administration are any indiction, only likely to get more protective. They will come to Canada, however, since we offer no such resistance and, rightly or wrongly, a goodly part of our decision makers value more EVs on the road than a strong domestic auto industry. Very well written nonetheless.
Sr. Director, Transformation at MBTA | Freelance Automotive Journalist
11 个月This seema right on.