Is it prediction, luck, hugging? A fun conversation with a professional problem solver and tea drinker

Clark Ray : When you don’t know what to do next, take a wild guess.

Your chance of being right is as good as any expert.

We all know the famous joke about the monkey throwing darts at a list of stocks.

Although it’s not a joke.

The story goes that a monkey throwing darts at a chart of stock picks will perform better than the average investor.

Sounds funny but is, apparently, perfectly true.

In the book ‘Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction’, Prof. Philip Tetlock and co-author Dan Gardner tell us that:

The average expert’s ability to make accurate predictions about the future is only slightly better than a layperson using guesswork.

“Open any newspaper, watch any TV news show, and you find experts who forecast what’s coming.

Some are cautious. More are bold and confident.

A handful claim to be visionaries able to see decades into the future.

With few exceptions, they are not in front of the camera because they possess any proven skill at forecasting.

Accuracy is seldom even mentioned…

The one undeniable talent they have is their skill at telling a compelling story with conviction, and that is enough.”

In business, the greatest skill anyone can possess is the ability to answer the question:

‘Now what?’

What’s the next step?

Problem-solving is really only the art of knowing what to do next in any given situation.

Your state-of-the-art machine has packed up.

Now what?

Your managers are all pulling in different directions.

Now what?

Nobody wants to come to work anymore.

Now what?

If you learn the theory and practice of problem-solving, you have a process through which you can evaluate the best approach to take.

And give yourself a fighting chance of getting it right.

If you don’t, here’s what you should do:

Write out all the possible options.

Include every crazy idea you can think of.

Pin the list to a wall.

Now go and find a monkey and a set of darts.

nikos nikolaou : Predictions and luck are not my thing.

Problem solving is about what works.

I can tell you what I think will work in your business or I can help you think for yourself how to think about problems and problem solve.

If I were a business owner option two would be my choice.

Teach me how to solve problems.

Teach me how to utilize my resources to solve problems.

First you have to frame the problem and understand that you are indeed trying to solve the right problem.

A deeper look might uncover a deeper problem that needs to be addressed.

Solving that deeper one will probably solve other problems that are more obvious.

Solving problems is about asking the right questions, building the bigger picture and understanding what is actually important and worthy of your time and investment and what is just noise.

And be ready to accept responsibility.

Curious about your process Clark.

Clark Ray : Your curiosity about the process beautifully sums up the process, Nikos.

It should come as no surprise that a perceptive man such as yourself, without guile or artifice, should describe perfectly the best way to approach a problem.

Rather than tell you the external process, I'll touch on my internal one. I think it sums up better how I go about my work.

Whenever I am asked to look at a situation, I always ask myself first: what am I looking at? Am I seeing what they're seeing? And, above else, what should I be seeing, that is, what is the standard against which this 'problem' is measured?

Then I look at the person(s) telling me about the problem. Why do they think its a problem? Are they the problem? Why can't they resolve it?

As you can see, it's really about the questions. There is a whole series of questions I ask myself before I even say a word.

You or anyone else could ask the same questions, but most don't.

It is, for me, the most fascinating and rewarding hobby. I love it. Always have done.

Thank you for your insight, Nikos.

nikos nikolaou : Clark love your process man!

I am curious.

How would a non perceptive, with guile and artifice person approach a problem according to your experience?

Why ?

How do you spot those persons?

How do you deal with them?

What makes you believe i have no guile or artifice?

Love having these conversations with you man!

Clark Ray : Haha, me too, Nikos. I'll answer the last part first if you don't mind - I don't believe I could do my job if I weren't able to judge the character of a person before finishing my tea, let alone after all the conversations we've had ??

But, your question answers itself - the only reason anyone with guile or artifice would ask the questions you have, would be to catch me out.

And, if you really wanted to catch me out you'd use more technical questions.

But, to answer the first part, you will have met people who aren't so lacking in guile yourself, I'm sure.

They tend to approach other peoples misfortune as an opportunity to indulge their ego.

Every aspect of the process affords them the platform they need to demonstrate their expertise and intellectual superiority.

You can't miss them. There is a point at which any morally sound person finds themselves muttering something along the lines of: 'who do they think they are?' Or, less charitably: 'pompous prick' under their breath.

nikos nikolaou : Tea?

Seriously man?

Tea?

tstststsst

??

"They tend to approach other peoples misfortune as an opportunity to indulge their ego.

Every aspect of the process affords them the platform they need to demonstrate their expertise and intellectual superiority. "

Ok now i get it.

You are talking about those poor guys.

What can we do to help them Clark?

I am thinking hugging...

You know..as soon they start their pompous blah blah blah just go to them and hug them.

What do you think?

Clark Ray : Tea. Absolutely. I mean, I love a coffee, but there are times when only tea does the job ??, and because.. it's in our genes, man.

But I'm afraid I must draw the line at hugging.

A stern look, maybe the slightest shake of the head, nothing too obvious. But hugging?? Oh no. ??

So what do you think about problem solving linkedin friends?