Predicting the Unpredictable: Early Business Expectations for 2019

Predictions usually come with the disclaimer that the future is unpredictable. Even our immediate horizons seem clouded by uncertainty. But there are plenty of bright spots as well—places where new opportunities are emerging. There are complex challenges to solve. There is critical work to be done. There are areas where we can meaningfully direct attention and energy, and do the work of the future, in 2019 and beyond. Consider these:

From AI to HI. The practical applications of AI—to take up rote tasks, improve business performance, and augment humans—will give rise to a new focus on HI: human ingenuity, our capacity for innovation and problem solving. In 2019, the conversation about artificial intelligence will shift, as we move past fear-mongering about AI and toward a new pragmatism: understanding how can we best work with artificial intelligence, and developing it to solve our most complex problems. AI will help human ingenuity achieve new, unprecedented scale, and require uniquely human strengths, like sound judgment, creativity, and collaboration. At the same time, this means we’ll have to reinforce critical thinking, curiosity and other human skills in classrooms, redesign jobs around human capabilities, and reskill and upskill our existing workforce. The complementary development of AI and HI will inform the conversation around education, talent, and leadership development for years to come—and putting humans first in those discussions will be crucial.   

Planning for multiple futures. Shifts in fiscal policy, trade brinkmanship, and regulatory uncertainty will continue in the new year. To thrive and grow in this environment, companies will step up planning for multiple scenarios, from sustained macroeconomic expansion to contraction and slower growth. The changing talent landscape, continued technological disruption, and other external factors will also factor into robust scenario planning. Powerful new technologies such as cognitive computing can already help organizations model and predict future financial performance under different situations. It will also be key for CFOs to work in concert with other executives—as a “symphonic” C-suite—to translate these scenarios into real-time strategies. Given the pace of change today, staying agile and building the right options for alternative futures requires leaders to operate as a cohesive unit.

Corporate giants and disruptors pair up. While startups have traditionally been viewed as threats to the establishment, we will continue to see a growing number of large corporations, across diverse sectors, partner up with younger companies to spur innovation, keep up with new technologies, and prepare for the work of the future. Together, they will extend their reach by forming and participating in business consortia and ecosystem plays across their enterprises. We’re already seeing this new dynamic play out in the marketplace. This will be amplified through the quickening pace of mergers & acquisitions, alliances, as well as decades-high venture capital investments in startups—$57.5 billion in the first half of 2018 alone—enabling these new companies to scale faster, make bolder moves and become more attractive to established players.

Data Compliance, Confidence. The EU’s 2018 General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) has set the stage for a new era in our data-driven economy. Compliance was a first step, but what organizations do over the coming year to ensure data privacy and reassure stakeholders will be decisive. In 2019, companies will need to improve data governance across the enterprise, and take full advantage of the opportunity GDPR presents. The most successful marketplace strategies, now and moving forward, will focus on earning and rebuilding trust, and on advancing a new social compact between customers and brands.  

Leading with Courage. Social, economic, and political instability that has grown over the past decade led to the rise of the social enterprise in 2018. Going forward, the importance of the social enterprise will pull forward corporate activism as an added dimension of corporate social responsibility, with CEOs and other business leaders facing mounting pressure to take a public stance on social issues. The pressure will not only come from the usual places, like shareholder resolutions or advocacy groups; it will now build within their own ranks of employees. People want the companies they work for to represent their values and concerns. Different forces are behind this attitude. Social media and the untethering of talent from the workplace have blurred the lines between the personal and the professional. Balancing business objectives with heightened employee activism and pressures from other stakeholders will become a core part of companies’ strategies. This includes an unwavering commitment from leaders to support courageous conversations within their organizations.   

There are big issues at stake. How can we best navigate the complex and rapidly changing business landscape? How can we thoughtfully apply and develop powerful new technologies to improve business, and to address our most pressing problems? How will we reinvent human work? What kind of organizational structures will best support that work? And what leadership challenges come with the more open, fluid, and socially responsive organizations we need to create?

In my experience, diverse thinking always leads to the best answers. Great minds don’t always have to think alike—that’s what human ingenuity is all about. And I’m optimistic it will take us down an exciting path toward future opportunities.