Predicting the state of travel and tourism for the rest of 2020

Travel and tourism will return. What it looks like and when exactly that happens will vary from region to region, country to country and city to city, but it will return. I can say that right this very moment I am thinking about Koh Samui, Thailand.

This is a place I'm very much ready to return to.

(Koh Samui, Chaweng Noi beach, Thailand / Getty Images)

More realistically, I'm also longing for the day I can walk down the street to 7-Eleven with my wife and daughter, or even go swimming in the pool at our apartment complex. Small steps.

Therein lies the challenge with travel and even how we define travel going forward. Our worlds have shrunk to neighborhoods and homes. We're not conditioned for this way of life. The idea of an affordable weekend family beach getaway in Thailand seems incredibly aspirational and far off right now. So that's how I'm going to break down this newsletter edition; an attempt to define what it means to travel in a post-coronavirus world, the timeline associated with that evolving definition, and the resulting impacts and realities for travelers and the tourism industry in the broadest sense.

Now let me reach deep back into my professional travel editorial experience at CNN and HuffPost and make some bold predictions based on current reports, news, the state of Covid-19 outbreaks and individual sentiment. Aside from the effectiveness of the battles to contain the virus, travel and tourism recovery will also be dictated by the speed at which economies recover.

Here goes...

May

Travel means... Close to home and excited for local, neighborhood travel that isn't going to the grocery store.

What travelers care about: Not contracting Covid-19. Even if they could travel farther afield, they probably wouldn't pull the trigger.

The breakdown: Travel is really going local. Even as some lockdowns and restrictions begin to ease in hard-hit countries, its still way too early to think about domestic travel being anything more than expanding our local travel a few blocks or hours' drive. The availability of local travel is also highly dependent on what country you live in, as local travel in places like Vietnam, Taiwan and New Zealand and likely Australia will allow for more local travel than say in Singapore, New York or Italy where there's still heavy restrictions in place.

International travel is still pretty much out of the question and a pipe dream reserved to VR forays and staring longingly at beautiful beach or landscape pictures online between Animal Crossing game sessions. Hotels, airlines and cruises continue to lay off and furlough employees as countries continue quarantines for arriving passengers.

Governments and countries start to implement and realize coordinated, tourism-boosting efforts and form "safe travel alliances," which are already starting to take place. China also starts dangling its massive tourist export capability as an economic lifeline for countries at breaking points, or making good on threats to keep Chinese tourists from visiting countries that China is quarreling with. It’s happened before, with mixed results.

June

Travel means... Branching out a bit more domestically.

What travelers care about: Regaining more normality in their lives and localities and their travel planning will reflect that.

The breakdown: More and more local venues like restaurants, parks, beaches, national parks and "normal" things are opening up again in hard-hit countries and people are just plainly happy to start doing these things again. That exciting walk to 7-Eleven has maybe turned into a trip to the mall, masked up, but a trip to the mall none-the-less. Or more outings to a park that's been closed, playing socially-distanced sports, crossing town on public transport to *gasp* meet a friend or drive to a family member's house you haven't seen in a few months. People discover the new limited options available to them as businesses have closed and others remaining open abide by social distancing rules which leads to long waits at those restaurants, entertainment venues and even outdoor attractions which have survived.

International travel for non-essential purposes? Still not happening. But more long-distance planning starts to take shape as people around the world start thinking about their end of the year holiday options. Searches for December and 2021 flights see a big increase as people realize most summer plans are toast and their best bet is looking farther out.

People will want to start thinking about how to rework plans that have been canceled from this period and the alternatives that will be available to them.

July

Travel means... Hey, maybe I can book a hotel or AirBnB somewhere within driving distance. Cruises? Oh, some are operating again but no thanks, not ready for that.

What travelers care about: Domestic options that aren't overly crowded. You've seen the beaches in Huntington Beach, California or Australia. People are already itching to be outside, even if some have discovered they'd now prefer to work from home all the time. This already played out in China in early April with a rush to tourist attractions as they opened up. Some will throw caution to the wind and hit crowded places, others will still be waiting for more safety assurances before taking any risks. July is going to be a confusing, conflicted month for travelers and traveler-reliant businesses alike.

The breakdown: Summer is here! Well, except if you're in Australia where its winter and the toilet water spins the wrong way, or in Singapore like me where summer is year round (sweats). Yay? But for many others, it is summer time and it is hot and I want to be outside doing things and not stuck in this damn apartment.

Everybody:

Virus:

This is when there's supposed to be the majority of school summer breaks, but kids have been home already for months because of school closures. What would generally be a time for family travel is made even more challenging by kids not having even home schooling to focus on. This is the month parents will go insane if they don't have the option to get out of the house and take kids places.

The safety concerns around travel are really highlighted here because parents are of course concerned about themselves, but they're even more concerned with their kid's safety. Even with children being at a lower risk of Covid-19, as parents we're still highly paranoid about what they're touching, if they're washing their hands, if the places we're bringing them to are safe. This will cancel out any thoughts of flights (if they're even available), family cruises (still way too soon for cruising) or travels to densely populated cities or attractions, regardless of social distancing measures.

Also, Vietnam, Taiwan and New Zealand and South Korea become major aspirational travel destinations because of their success containing coronavirus and increasing domestic travel.

August

Travel means... Still traveling to places reachable by taking public transport or driving. If a local hotel or BnB is open and I can afford it, OK yeah, a change of scenery would be nice. That’s if I'm not out of work and looking for a job, in which case that's the focus.

What travelers care about: Alright, I'll consider getting on a plane if I've really have to go somewhere, but for leisure? Still too soon.

The breakdown: So many jobs have been lost in economies around the world that the tourism industry really starts to see and feel the impact of people just not being able to afford to take trips. This is a hard realization which is made even more striking by the summer travel seasons ending without even having gotten started. In Southeast Asia, it isn't felt as dramatically as in North Asia, North America or Europe, but it is still felt.

Countries that opened up for tourism in June and July and continue to suffer because people either couldn't get there or didn't want to get there just yet have to face the reality they opened up too quickly and now face the reality of eating those operating costs.

Meanwhile countries that focused on promoting "disease-free" long-stay tourism, sustainable tourism, and those that worked towards improving service and safety standards while they bid their time, focused on online promotion towards long term traveler planning start to see bookings come back to life leading into the fall and holiday seasons. Though the response is nowhere near anything approaching normal considering struggling economies, difficulties traveling and reduced capacity because of continued social distancing.

September

Travel means... Yeah, no. Not a great month for travel outside of essential business travel or heading where you've got to get to, like college, or to see family.

What travelers care about: Kids are back in school, thank God. The global economy is in a recession and many are looking for work, being cautious with money, starting new jobs or settling back in the office. Reality sets in. Travelers care about essential travel domestically.

The breakdown: In the U.S., Henry Harteveldt, founder of Atmosphere Research Group, a travel analysis firm in San Francisco, recently told NYT that "Business travel won’t come back before we hear from public health officials that it’s safe to travel. Once we hit the point where the virus is contained and, hopefully, treatment is available, I believe business travel will start to resume, assuming the economy hasn’t gone into a deep recession or, worse, a depression."

With the recent encouraging news of remdesivir showing "positive results" as a treatment (not cure) for Covid-19, hopefully such a treatment can have a impact by September and business travel starts becoming a reality once again. College kids largely return back to school, so flights are happening, but not because people are going out of their way to travel, more that they have to and it isn't completely unsafe to do it as the majority of countries already hard-hit by coronavirus have their social distancing routines and regulations down and people are used to them.

International travel continues to be excluded to all but between those countries which have effectively contained their outbreaks. New outbreaks in countries will have come over the summer and continue to hit in different parts of the world and force countries to keep limiting international travel or institute selective quarantines.

For countries that have gotten through the worst of it already, domestic flights continue to come back to meet more necessary demand, and some furloughed workers are brought back to help meet that demand. Food & Beverage finally starts seeing rebounds in college towns, and metro areas as students are back and workers are for the most part have been back in their offices. The free, local destinations continue to be the big draws for people with limited options, but there's also now a growing base of people who became accustomed to working from home. These people are looking at long term remote working locations that are anywhere but their own house and they're combining this newfound freedom with "vacationing" as restrictions allow. The super rich have also begun escaping to destinations that well, cater to the super rich.

September is very much a noticeable rebound month but cautioned by potential second waves of coronavirus returning during flu season.

October

Travel means... Continued focus on local and domestic travel and international travel between those countries which have contained coronavirus and have no new cases still.

What travelers care about: Seeing family and friends and really planning on using up that vacation time before the end of the year. Should I finally book that trip back home for holidays to see family? Decision time.

The breakdown: Think about all of the canceled vacations and time off that people didn't want to take because that time off would be spent sitting at home. Normally, people can only carry over so much vacation time into the new year and we're looking at a situation where who knows how many people are going to be wondering what to do with all of the saved vacation days. Again, this is a problem unique to those who still have jobs or haven't had to give up their vacation time because of furloughs. For those who have lost a job or started a new one, this really won't be a consideration.

October can be a great month to travel, though historically it isn't a peak season. In places like Hong Kong the weather is just starting to cool off, in Japan it isn't freezing yet and prices aren't insane, monsoon seasons are coming to an end and it is a great window. But the idea of "peak season" will be different this year. Peak season will now mean a time when there's any kind of travel or tourism at all. October could be a new peak season, a time to squeeze required vacation days before they expire and before you plan on using up the rest to visit family before your relatives think you've forgotten about them.

I believe October will be the month where countries which have gotten through their outbreaks and are not experiencing second waves will finally start seeing some real tourism and travel progress. Long weekends will be the name of the game as people still have commitments like school and work to attend to.

In Asia, look for Chinese tourists to travel heavily once again during the National Day Golden Week Holiday from October 1st to the 8th.

November

Travel means... Dealing with a potential second wave of coronavirus so potentially not traveling again. Oh, and there's an election in the U.S. on November 4th, (sort of a big one) so people are going to be around for that. Don't expect Americans to travel around that time.

What travelers care about: Not getting sick again and once again planning ahead.

The breakdown: With the increased travel in October, loosened restrictions on domestic travel in countries where Covid-19 hasn't been completely stamped out, and new infections in other countries, and the onset of seasonal flu, November has the potential to be the month with the highest probability for reinstatement of lockdowns and restrictions to combat a second wave.

This is bad news for those hotels, restaurants, airlines and businesses which started to see some light in previous months or for people who've had a taste of a bit more freedom. The countries which will do best during this period will be the ones who either never opened back up for international travel, or maintained strict quarantines for new international arrivals from coronavirus-hit countries which conversely would have continued to kill international geared tourism. It's a bit of a catch-22.

The potential for this second wave is why I believe international tourism will only truly begin to rebound in 2020 for countries that can maintain a few to zero new coronavirus cases and only allow travel between these countries. You simply cannot restart international tourism when you've got quarantines in place for new arrivals.

December

Travel means... Barring a coronavirus second wave, travel in December still feels mostly local and domestic with the addition of holiday travel for those countries celebrating Christmas.

What travelers care about: Is 2020 over yet?

The breakdown: Some may still find it difficult to travel home internationally for the holidays between countries that still have infections. Domestically it will still potentially be challenging as airlines will still not be recovered, won't have the staffing capacity to handle a holiday crush as usual, and planes still might be incorporating safe social distancing measures like keeping the middle seat and requiring passengers to wear masks. Same with taking the bus or train. That doesn't encourage wanting to travel. People will still try to get home for the holidays though, particularly if they'd returned to school in the fall. For those with cars, I foresee some embarking on road trips this December.

There will be no big 2020 New Years celebrations around the world. Can you honestly see Times Square in New York city packed with a million people? There's just no way that's happening.

But with New Years comes resolutions and planning for 2021, when there will hopefully be a vaccine and the pandemic will be mostly under control. Some people look to book cruises again (not me), and really start looking forward to mid to late 2021 plans to make up for all of the lost time in 2020.

The bottom line

Considering all of the above is in fact speculative and based on where we're at right now, I'm still hopeful that we'll see some travel and tourism success stories in the remainder of 2020 as economies, sentiment and realities shift and adjust. I would love to be wrong about the international travel timelines in particular. Regardless, we can all help speed up the process by being smart about social distancing, listening to medical professionals, supporting our communities, healthcare workers and small businesses.

People are stuck figuratively and literally and looking for an escape, turning to memories of past travels, reading fiction, binging shows or playing games. We all have our stories about how this pandemic has affected us, how it's limited where we can go and who we can see, what travel we've had to cancel or postpone.

Personally, this December I hope to be in California with my family eating candy cane cookies, watching old Sci-Fi movies with my dad, taking my daughter and wife out to the ranch, listening to my brother play jazz and eating my mom's home-cooked meals. No Zoom meeting, novel, movie or game will ever be able to replace that experience, and I will wait this out with the rest of you for the day a return to travel becomes a reality.

Brian Chesky, CEO & Co-founder of Airbnb, said in a recent LinkedIn Live interview, "No matter how bad this storm is, no matter how long travel is in pause, travel will return and it will probably be bigger that it ever has been before. Travel has lived through the Great Depression, travel has lived through World War II, it will absolutely return."

Chesky summed it up nicely when he said, "The reason it will return is we all have a fundamental human desire to explore. We're hunter gatherers, that's how we evolved."

We aren't meant to be stuck in our caves for the entirety of our lives. Travel is in our DNA and I know we'll find our way and cross those continents and oceans again, eventually reaching higher than we have before.

One last prediction

I'm going to make a bold prediction here, and I'd like you to hold me to it when the time comes. We're facing a year of hurt in 2020, recovery and innovation in 2021 and resurgence from 2022 to 2024. By 2025 the travel and tourism industry will look completely different than it does today, but it will also be stronger, more sustainable, provide better protections for workers and travelers alike, and will even offer a wider variety of affordable options than what we had before the pandemic.

What are your predictions for travel and tourism for the rest of 2020? What ways can people help support the travel and tourism industry through this period? Let me know in the comments below.