Predicting Politics with Alan Lichtman

Predicting Politics with Alan Lichtman

Mutsa Mambo Ph.D Mutsa Mambo Ph.D

Mutsa Mambo Ph.D

Skilled analytical researcher with over 14 years of experience in the water sector.

发布日期: 2024年8月7日
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Mr Litchtman has been able to predict the last 9 elections by employing his 13 keys, originally 12 keys, to the White House.

The method consists of 13 true or false questions about America, and if 6 or more keys go against the incumbent party, the the Professor predicts the defeat of the incumbent. If fewer than 6 go against the incumbent then he will predict the incumbent party’s win.

His keys assess economic performance, social stability, incumbent charisma, party mandate, nomination contest, the third party factor, long term economic growth, policy shift, scandal free candidates and presidencies, foreign/military mishaps, foreign/military triumphs, and challenger appeal for the most part.

Using careful analysis of historical data since Abraham Lincoln, Lichtman has crafted a predictive model that is more accurate than other conventional methods such as polling data.

Lichtman has been vocal in criticizing the Democrats for abandoning President Biden as their presidential nominee, given that it flips one of his keys. Providing additional obstacles for Democrats to navigate on their trek to the White House.

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However, with President Biden off the ballot, the public does not have to contend with the Biden-Trump rematch they were complaining about. And resultantly, all the other keys appear to be unaffected with President Biden off the ticket.

It should be noted that, Presidents who have been impeached have never been elected for a second term. Andrew Johnson in 1868, could not earn a second Democratic nomination. While Bill Clinton was impeached in his second term and President Trump was impeached twice.

If history and the recent 2020 contentious election are anything to go by, it appears that the Lichtman keys are still valuable in predicting the American election results. Thus, taking into account all of the keys suggestions it appears that America will have a new President, its first female President and its second President of Color.

#Biden #PresidentBiden #Harris #KamalaHarris #Trump #PresidentTrump #Election #Walz #AlanLichtman #PresidentialElection


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