Predicting Generic Prices
The way that pharmacy purchase prices work in the UK leads some people to think that they are unpredictable as the price is set by negotiation between pharmacy and wholesaler. However if you look at the graph for Candesartan Tabs 8mg 28 you will see that after the initial phase when the generic was launched in May 2012, the average market price and the drug tariff reimbursement price have been more or less parallel. The gap has narrowed in recent months as a shortage has lead to increases in prices, but the parallel nature of the two lines remains. In fact any good statistician would be able to use the reimbursement price, perhaps with a count of the number of active generic manufacturers each month, to make reasonable forecast of the expected market prices a couple of months in advance.
In the chart below I have attempted to predict prices a couple of months ahead of time and you can see the two blue lines are fairly close to each other. The data I took from https://www.bppi.co.uk which is a subscription service covering the last 10 years, and I've used a simple formula to connect reimbursement price and market price. With a little more effort we could probably create a usable forecasting tool to predict the price of this product and many others.
If you'd like to discuss this please make contact via [email protected] and put predicting prices onto the title line. Many thanks.
Managing Director at Commercial Pharma Pricing Expert WaveData
5 年The biggest changes we see are rises in the average prices. These usually result in NCSO, but not always. They also happen with brands, PIs and devices.
Managing Director at Commercial Pharma Pricing Expert WaveData
5 年We often see indications of availability issues weeks or months before NCSO
Head Of Operations at NORTH MEOLS PHARMACY LIMITED
5 年Have you had much success predicting anything that goes NCSO before it does? Have you any evidence of these predictions?