Predicting delays in the Panama Canal
Have you wondered how bad the delays will be in the Panama Canal three months from now and if you should book a transit slot?
At GAC Panama, we often have to deal with our customers asking us how far ahead we can project delays and transit congestions, and how many ships will arrive three months from now on the same day as their vessel.
The best way we can support our customers in expediting their transit through the Panama Canal is by giving realistic and real-time information. Transit prospects can only be forecasted, with reasonable certainty, 10 to 12 days ahead only. This is due to a number of circumstances that come into play:
1) Unforeseen/unexpected transit arrivals
2) Adverse weather such as fog, heavy rains etc. and
3) Transit delays
When forecasting beyond the 10 to 12 day range, it is very likely that several unannounced vessels will report their arrival to the Panama Canal. The vessel may be of the same category of your vessel and take an earlier place in the arrival list, and be in line ahead of your vessel for transiting.
Also, if instead of transiting 38 vessels in the e.g. the next three days, the Canal can only transit 37 vessels due to night fog, then those three will go in front of your vessel for the transit line.
Lane maintenance and operational transit restrictions can be forecasted with a high degree of accuracy. If the Canal advises that the delay will be 18 hours, it is then very likely that the delay will take that long. These items can be factored into the transit prospects.
Alexei’s Personal Tip!
Although we put a lot of analysis into forecasting transit prospects, because of the reasons listed above, estimating beyond 10 to 12 days is not very reliable and most likely will be incorrect. As soon as you have a firm ETA or even a tentative date, contact us. Nothing will replace the time spent in planning the transit.
GAC Panama is well versed with the local Panamanian port authority rules and regulations regarding Panama Canal transits. Our management team is experienced in working on all the aspects of the Panama Canal and can provide you with expert assistance prior to your arrival, and when your vessel is ready to set sail.
For more information about how we can provide you with the support you need for a smooth transit, contact us at [email protected].
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