Pre Match Trading: The Way to Steady Profits

Pre-Match Trading is often the most overlooked way of making money on the exchanges.

The risk v reward offers some very good opportunities on a very regular basis.

The exchange markets are not what they were 15 years ago the money you see matched on the non-televised Premier League game on a Saturday morning would be the equivalent of what was already matched on a Thursday evening.

If you are putting a fair amount of money in the market, you must be able to get it out. That is why I only look at matches with at least 30/40K matched on the morning of kick off.

Also, what you must be very aware of is that on a Saturday the Betfair platform can suddenly without warning go down. This can leave you with a considerable sum in the market. This is why it is imperative that you do not trade with all of your bank, and you have the funds to lay off your trade, either on a different exchange platform or using a conventional bookmaker.

Staking

Every One Hundred pounds that you put into the market you gain or lose ￡1 a tick between the odds of 1.01 & 1.99 whichever way the market goes. So, if you back a side at 1.95 and they go into 1.91. Then you can lay at 1.91 leaving you with ￡4 profit on that side should they go on to win.

When the price goes above 2.00 then you win or lose ￡2 a tick as the odds move in .02 increments.

If you back a side at 1.95 and they move out to 1.99 then that would leave you with a ￡4 loss on that side should they go onto lose.

You can also Green or Red up.

So in the first example You back a team at 1.95 and they go into 1.91. If you take that ￡4 and divide by 1.91 = ￡2.09 then you lay 102.09 (￡100 + 2.09) at 1.91 ?

If you back the team at 1.95 and they go out to 1.99. If you take the -￡4 loss and divide by 1.99 = -￡2.01 then you lay ￡97.99 (￡100 - ￡2.01) at 1.99

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New Traders are frightened of making the wrong decision

I believe that many new traders fail to master pre match trading because they can’t or won’t make a decision.

The simple question is will the price of this team go up or go down? The newbie trader is so frightened of making the wrong decision that this leads to in action.

Now the reality is providing that you have a stop loss, and you always stick to it and providing you are right around 50% of the time you cannot really fail to end up in profit.

Generally, when placing a trade there are 3 outcomes.

1: The trade goes against you, and it hits your stop loss. Here you would then look to lose around 2% of your bank.

2: The trade goes nowhere. In which case you just scratch out for no profit/loss

3: The trade goes your way, and you trade out for a nice profit.

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When I first started pre-match trading, I was putting into the market basically guessing which way the Trade was going to go. Now with the Pre-Match Trading Portal the decision is made for me.

I am going to use the video below to highlight the thought process.

I am also going to assume that you are placing ￡500 into the market so that for every tick you are winning or losing ￡5. You should do this with a ￡1000 bank. Because as discussed previously you must be ready should the Betfair platform go down.

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Manchester City v Newcastle

Let’s look at the first Match Manchester City v Newcastle.

When looking at a trade I tend to look for several things

The first thing to look at is where is the Pinnacle price? The reason we use Pinnacle is because they are generally regarded as the market leaders.

Here we can see that the Newcastle price is 4.50 on Pinnacle and 5.00 on Betfair.

Also, the Manchester City of 1.78 is exactly the same as the price on Pinnacle.

When you look at the portal, we can see that over the last few hours the Manchester City price has barely moved. However, there is a solid pink block between 0100 to 0630. Whereas when we look at the Newcastle & Draw price, we see a solid block of Blue.

This is a strong indication that that the Manchester City price will drift. Indeed, the Manchester City price drifted out to above 1.90 before settling at 1.90 before kick-off.

So here you would Lay Manchester City for ￡500 at 1.78 with a stop loss at 1.74 This means should the trade go against you then you are losing -￡15.88 so 1.5% of your bank. You should look to lose no more than 2% of your bank on any trade.

Then you monitor the trade. Should the price go your way and move out to 1.79 then you put your stop loss at 1.75. I tend to move my stop loss until it reaches my entry point. So in this case Manchester City drift to 1.82 then I have my stop where I entered at 1.78.

Let’s see some of the options we could have employed just before kick-off

We could have left our money on Manchester City at 1.90 This would have given us ￡60 on Manchester City and no loss on the Draw & Newcastle.

?We could have equalled the profit over all 3 results. Here this would have given us an overall profit of ￡31.57 pre commission.

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QPR v Ipswich

If we look at the Ipswich game, they were priced at 1.91 and Pinnacle had them priced at 1.86.

Again, there was no real price movement between 0100 & 0630 and although we are not seeing a solid wall of blue. Ipswich have taken 89% of the book (73K of 82K has been traded on them)

So, the difference between what was taken 89% and the implied odds of 1.92 52% is 37% difference.

This again is a big indication that the Ipswich price will go down.

So here you would Back Ipswich for ￡500 at 1.91 with a stop loss at 1.96 This means should the trade go against you then you are losing -￡12.76 so 1.27% of your bank. You should look to lose no more than 2% of your bank on any trade.

Then you monitor the trade. Should the price go your way and move in to 1.89 then you put your stop loss at 1.94. Again, I tend to move my stop loss until it reaches my entry point. So in this case Ipswich go into 1.86 then I have my stop where I entered at 1.91.

Let’s see some of the options we could have employed just before kick-off

We could have left our money on Ipswich at 1.71 This would have given us ￡100 on Ipswich and no loss on the Draw & Newcastle.

?We could have equalled the profit over all 3 results. Here this would have given us an overall profit of ￡58.48 pre commission.

Summary

These two trades are typical of a Saturday and when you look at the risk v reward the returns are excellent.

In the Manchester City game You would have risked ￡15.88 for a ￡31.57 profit and in the Ipswich game you would have risked ￡12.76 for a ￡58.48 profit.

Now obviously the profit can be more the more money you put into the market. However, as previously stated ?you must be sure of getting out of the market.

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The Pre Match trading tool on the Trade on Sports portal is invaluable as it helps you to make a decision. It highlights where the money is going and also highlights where the money is going on Pinnacle.

As previously stated you don’t have to be right every time but providing you are disciplined and stick with implementing your stop loss then over time you should make a nice profit.

The best games to concentrate on are the Big European leagues along with the Champions League & Europa League games where some large price movements can be seen

To learn more go to tradeonsports.co.uk

https://youtu.be/KDb6jPiwiDk?si=YkzN1tz5gx3U4zNR