In Praise of Maybe

Recently, I found myself in the ER with my youngest child, Hudson. Besides being a smart, energetic, and often willful toddler, I discovered that he is beginning to retain everything I tell him…except, seemingly, the things I might really need him to (i.e. what led us to our trip to the emergency room). While receiving care he began to tell the MD about his current imaginary friend, whom he calls “Koogon”. The doctor asked him where he met Koogon, to which he said, “Costco.”

“Really…What do you and Koogon like to do together?”

“He gives me candy and we ride in his car….”

Now, here I want to state clearly for the record that I do not let my 3-year-old ride in cars with people who give him candy at Costco. However, a few days before, my spouse and I had given our kids a Berenstain Bears enabled “stranger danger” talk where we had gone over the important life-pro-tip of not taking candy from strangers or getting in their cars. His timing of spouting off that important information wasn’t ideal, but as an inexperienced dad, I became keenly aware of his ever-growing desire to internalize what I teach him.

My current job is to help a large online university to think about the future of earning and learning, in order to continue to connect talented individuals to opportunity. This experience in the ER and my day-to-day got me thinking…what will I tell my children is the “formula to success”? And if I told them, would they believe me?

Some facts: for nearly 60-70 years the percentage of Americans who attain a college degree has steadily climbed to nearly 30% of the population aged 25+, purportedly because they want a “good job” – or so ~80 – 85% of incoming freshman say. In fact, this is a widely held belief among many of our federal and state politicians (Democrat and Republican). Justifiably so. A college degree remains one of the surest paths to opportunity and increased wages. This is the “formula to success”!…maybe.

Some more facts: Millennials are the first American generation on track to do worse than their parents in job status and income. At no time prior, has the underemployment (degree holders working in non-degree jobs) been higher, regardless for how recently they graduated. In fact, according to Brookings, 45% of low-wage workers are either in college or already have a degree. Worse and even more indicative of the problem, is that this is the first time (perhaps ever) that recent college graduates have higher unemployment than overall unemployment.

So, what are we to do with this paradoxical information: that the college degree is simultaneously the surest path to success and that it is not? (btw looks like in today’s world we might have to get used to paradoxes). As someone who is currently paid to think about this at some level, let me suggest a maxim in the same vein of Malcolm Gladwell’s Grand Unifying Theory for Higher Education: Be ok with maybe. Maybe getting a degree is useful. Maybe it’s not. Maybe it is all the education you’ll need during your life. Maybe not. Maybe it is, if you have a specific goal, study in an in-demand major, don’t pay too much, and finish in a timely fashion. Maybe it’s not. Or maybe this is just the very first generation of college going students to which “big data” has been reliably collected and we are all simply watching what prior generations have described as “paying your dues”. Maybe not.

The point is, the more we make decisions off of what we hope or believe is the “formula to success” the more likely we are to make the mistake of giving ourselves, friends, children, students, etc. bad information…which they very well might ingest and reproduce at inopportune times – like my son in the ER. I say we bestow an increased value of maybe, instead of absolutes. Let’s reverse the disdain we have for the word “flip-flopper” (you mean this person listened to a counterpoint, took in new data, weighed the evidence, and changed their mind!....gasp). Let’s praise individuals who are willing to question – brace yourself – the status quo. In short, let’s be ok with maybe.

If one day one of my willful (and now slightly more experienced) children asks me, “Dad, should I go to college?” I hope I’m open enough to the idea to say, “Maybe. Let’s figure out what’s best for you.”

“Doubt is humble, and that's what man needs to be, considering that human history is just a litany of getting shit dead wrong.” – Bill Maher