#60 AI: Hype Cycles and Bubbles!

Gartner ???????? ?????????? ?????? ???? ???? ???????????????? ??????????????????????, 2024

Back in 2018, I envisioned the transformative impact AI could have on software engineering in my article "How’s the 'software factory' going?" for CIO magazine.

I wrote,

?? ???????????????? ?????????????? ???????????????? ?????????????? ??????????, ???????????????????????? ?????? ???????????????? ???????????????????? ?????????????? ???????????? ???? ?????? ???????? ?????????? ???? ???????????????? ??????????????????????.

???????? ???????????????????????? ???????????????????????? ???? ???????????????????? ???????????????????????? (????), ?????????????? ???????????????? (????), ?????? ?????????????? ???????????????? ???????????????????? (??????), ?????? ?????????? ?????????? ???????? ???????????? ??????????.

What I couldn't foresee then was that a few years later, I would coauthor Gartner's inaugural Hype Cycle for AI in Software Engineering alongside Adrian Leow (lead author) and Soyeb Barot , under the leadership of Mark O'Neill .

This is now my first published work for Gartner.AI is increasingly being "hyped" to deliver on the vision I spoke about in 2018:

???????????????? ?????????????????????? ???????????????????? ???????? ???? ?????????????? ?????? ?????????????? ???????? ???????????????????????? ?????????????? ?????????? ????????????????????????.

????, ????????'?? ????????? ???????????????? ???????????????????? ???????? ?????? ?????????????????

The journey has come full circle.....and the hype continues. :-)

Highlights

• AI Agents: The hype around AI agents is growing at an unprecedented pace. Haritha Khandabattu and Tom Coshow delve into this fascinating space, profiling vendors like crewAI and Sema4.ai . It's a must-read!
• AI Agents in Software Engineering: Unlike general-purpose AI agents, these are tailored specifically for software engineering tasks, encompassing not just coding, but also testing, requirements analysis, and documentation. Haritha Khandabattu and Steve Deng explore this area, featuring vendors like Cognition, known for their Devin demos, and Pythagora (YC W24).
• AI Developer Platforms: Exciting developments are happening with new platforms designed to support the entire AI development lifecycle—design, build, test, and deployment. Mike Fang and Jim Scheibmeir, Ph.D. ., are leading the exploration of these cutting-edge AI developer platforms.
• AI Security Code Assistants: Mark Horvath offers an insightful look into AI security code assistants, covering established names like Checkmarx and Veracode, along with emerging specialists like Mobb and Qwiet AI.
• Open-Source GenAI Code Models: Open-source remains a key element in generative AI, particularly in specialized foundation models fine-tuned for coding tasks like code generation, completion, and explainability. This profile, penned by Manjunath (Manju) Bhat , Arun Batchu , Philip Walsh, PhD , and Haritha Khandabattu, is an essential read for anyone interested in this evolving field.

Gartner clients can access the Hype Cycle here: https://www.gartner.com/interactive/hc/5625491

Read more by lead author Adrian Leow :

When Will AI Pay Off? Wall Street's Growing Impatience

Wall Street is increasingly impatient as Big Tech's massive AI investments have yet to deliver substantial profits. Despite billions spent since the launch of ChatGPT, the returns have been underwhelming—mostly chatbots and cost-saving tools with unclear monetization.

Investors are questioning whether AI will ever pay off, especially as companies like Amazon and Intel face stock declines tied to heavy AI spending. However, tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Meta are doubling down, betting on long-term gains despite mounting pressure for quicker returns. The industry remains divided on whether AI's potential will justify the costs, leaving the future of these investments uncertain.

Read more: Has the AI bubble burst? Wall Street wonders if artificial intelligence will ever make money(CNN)

In a related vein, as investment in AI reaches new highs, Gartner Global Chief of Research Chris Howard breaks down the newly released Hype Cycle for Artificial Intelligence.

He covers the stages of AI development, what it means for GenAI to enter the trough of disillusionment, and the impact of AI on energy consumption.

Use this new research to expand your purview beyond AI to identify other techniques and technologies worthy of investment.

When not to use generative AI: https://gtnr.it/3zUHPqa

Pardon my French!

Watch full video in English:

Signing Off

Why did the AI bubble go to therapy?

It had too many inflated expectations!

Keep an eye on our upcoming editions for in-depth discussions on specific AI trends, expert insights, and answers to your most pressing AI questions!

Stay connected for more updates and insights in the dynamic world of AI.

For any feedback or topics you'd like us to cover, feel free to contact me via LinkedIn.

DEEPakAI: AI Demystifed Demystifying AI, one newsletter at a time!

p.s. - The newsletter includes smart prompt based LLM generated content. The views and opinions expressed in the newsletter are my personal views and opinions.