Powerful solar power growth ahead

Solar PV panels have become so cheap, they are "almost for free".

Despite the very low panel prices, investors seem determined to continue investing in increased capacity to produce new PV panels, according to today's article in the Financial Times. According to this article, global manufacturing capacity passes 1 TW this year, and by the end of 2025 the industry will be able to supply panels with more than 2 TW of electricity generation capacity per year.

Last year, a record 0.4 TW of new solar PV capacity was installed globally.

This year, total global electricity generation will be about 30 PWh (30 000 TWh). 2 TW of new solar PV capacity would produce in the order of 3 PWh per year, which is 4 times higher than last year growth in total, global electricity generation.

So, if this expected PV manufacturing capacity results in electricity producing installations, the global electricity industry will see thermal power plants being forced out of the market.

Even if one of the three new solar PWh is used for new demand, two PWh may be used to replace production from the non-renewable thermal power plants, now providing 20 PWh annually. That would imply one in ten thermal plants being forced out of operation, globally.

Then, consider the possibility that solar PV manufacturing capacity continue to increase by further investments in the following years.

It would be a disruption, where evaporating assets on balance sheets of power companies and fossil fuel companies will have significant effects on pension funds and financial institutions in the world.

Many will claim this is not possible. "King Coal" and Small Modular Reactors are necessary, they will say – disregarding the simultaneous developments of batteries, power electronics, HVDC transmission, electric mobility, flexible data centres, electro-fuels, etc.

The country that installed most solar PV last year was China. They have far more solar generation than another country. It is also in China, where most of the expansion of manufacturing takes place. They might know how the transition can be done.