Power in Transition: Daniel Araya, PhD. AI, Governance, and the Future of War

As power shifts and technology accelerates, Dr. Daniel Araya offers insights into a future shaped by innovation, ethics, and new forms of global influence.

Introduction In his home office in Toronto, Canada, surrounded by books and research notes, Dr. Daniel Araya reflects on the forces transforming our world. His career has spanned think tanks, academia, and Silicon Valley, each experience adding depth to his understanding of how technology and policy intersect. “It’s not just about wealth or innovation for its own sake,” he says, emphasizing the need for ethical considerations in technological progress. “We’re reshaping society, whether we realize it or not.”

Dr. Daniel Araya is a senior partner at the World Legal Summit and a senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), focusing on artificial intelligence and public policy within a changing global order. An accomplished author and speaker, he contributes to Forbes, The Brookings Institution, and The National Post, among others. He has presented at prominent institutions like Harvard, Stanford, the US Naval Postgraduate School and Microsoft Research. Dr. Araya’s recent books include Augmented Education in the Global Age (2023) and Augmented Intelligence (2018). He has a doctorate from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

Dr. Araya’s insights challenge us to rethink our assumptions on power, governance, and global dynamics. In this interview, he explores what he calls the “multi-nodal” global order, the unique interplay between the United States and China, and the fundamental role of technology in transforming our world.

Shaping a Global Perspective

Al Leong: Daniel, we’ve known each other for years, but I’d like readers to understand your background. How did you come to public policy, and how has your education shaped your thinking?

Daniel Araya: “It’s been a long journey. I was initially trained in the social sciences and humanities, and I focused a lot on comparative religion, philosophy, and sociology. You know, I studied the big picture stuff but didn’t really shape my undergraduate studies for a career. I had an interest in the broader questions about culture and society, which led me to study the “great thinkers.” It was a valuable education. But it was kind of a detour, and in the 2000s, I became involved in entrepreneurship in the tech sector, and that turned into an interest in public policy. So eventually, I went into public policy and ended up at the University of Illinois in the United States for graduate studies. In the end, I became disillusioned with the academic world. I found it insular and cynical. I found the social sciences in particular, suffered from groupthink and were basically pessimistic in their outlook. Academics often talk a lot about what’s wrong with the world but not much about how to fix what’s wrong. So, that was part of my disillusionment. Later, after I completed my doctorate, I moved into the think tank space, contributing to the Brookings Institution in DC and the Centre for International Governance Innovation in Canada. Just prior to completing my doctorate, I spent time in Silicon Valley, and that really shaped my overall outlook. Silicon Valley is a completely different culture from higher education. In the technology space people are driven by innovation and problem-solving but also wealth creation. They want to change the world and make a lot of money in the process. It was the complete opposite of what I had experienced up until that point.

The Disconnect Between Policy and Technology

Al Leong: You talk about Silicon Valley’s pragmatism. Is there something unique about technology’s role in shaping society that distinguishes it from policy?

Daniel Araya: “I’m often accused of being a technological determinist, which means I believe technology shapes history and that the technologies we use change the way we understand ourselves. The smartphone, for example, has totally transformed the reach and scale of our communication and collective identity. Technology has this unique ability to reshape culture. And then there’s policy, which responds to those changes incrementally.

In the policy world, change is slow. For example, governments aren’t designed for radical transformation. They’re designed for stability, and stability is the opposite of innovation. So we’re living in this time of disruptive technological innovation, but our governments are slow-moving. They’re not designed to respond to this kind of change.”

Insights from Government: A Closer Look at Policy Making

Al Leong: You’ve worked with think tanks like the Brookings Institution and Canada’s Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI). How did those experiences shape your views on policymaking, especially in relation to tech?

Daniel Araya: “Think tanks tend to function within closed circles. The people who work there come from elite institutions, and the conversations I find can often suffer from top-down thinking. While living in the United States, I attended seminars in DC, where we would discuss high-level policy. The think tank world has an elite culture that’s largely isolated from the general population. Consequently, they’re generally less focused on change and more focused on maintaining the status quo.

In Canada, our foreign policy is always constrained by our relationship with the United States. The U.S. has a dominant role, so Canadian policy is largely subordinate to American policy, especially on issues of geopolitics like the rise of China. The Canadian government has tried to engage with China independently, but our foreign policy is largely reactive because we are tied so closely to the U.S.”

Multipolarity vs. Multi-nodal: Reimagining Global Influence

Al Leong: We’re entering what some call a “multipolar” world. But you prefer the term “multi-nodal.” Could you explain that distinction?

Daniel Araya: “Yeah, well, the idea of multipolarity is that we have multiple power centers, like the U.S., China, Russia, and the European Union. This is certainly true, but I think it’s more accurate to describe it as ‘multi-nodal.’ Today, nation-states are more like nodes within a single global network. That is, they are interconnected centers of power rather than separate billiard balls bouncing off one another. In today’s world, we have interconnected economic and cultural systems that are subject to migration flows, financial flows, and biological contagion. Cultures are no longer isolated from one another… if they ever were.

In a multipolar world, we think of different centers of power competing for dominance, like during the Cold War, but in a multi-nodal world, these centers are constrained by their location in a web of relationships. So, we’re in a world where the U.S. and China are competing, but they’re also economically interdependent, which complicates things. It’s more fluid and interconnected than the concept of multipolarity would suggest.”

Multipolar Rivalry: The Unique U.S.-China Dynamic

Al Leong: With this multi-nodal model in mind, how do you see the U.S.-China relationship? Is another Cold War inevitable?

Daniel Araya: “What we’re seeing today is a geopolitical rivalry that many people compare to the Cold War. I’m basically dubious about that analogy. We are definitely in a new multipolar era in which there’s lots of suspicion and fear about the threat of military confrontation. However, it’s different from the standoff between the United States and the Soviet Union because the U.S. and China are interdependent in so many ways. China has the world’s largest manufacturing base, and that manufacturing base supports the U.S. economy. In turn, the U.S. has the world’s largest consumer market, which feeds on Chinese manufacturing and helps drive Chinese development. So, they’re completely intertwined economically.

But, of course, they’re also competing to shape a new global order. China is aiming to develop its own commercial brands and move up the global value chain. China doesn’t want to be dependent on the U.S. over the long term.

Al Leong: The U.S. has maintained a visible military presence in regions close to China, including the Pacific, while China would never send warships to the U.S. coast. How do you see this shaping the dynamics of U.S.-China relations?

Daniel Araya: “Yes, it’s a clear example of declining unipolarity. The U.S. has developed military bases across the Pacific, projecting power close to China. China, on the other hand, doesn’t have comparable bases or any presence near the U.S. mainland. In fact, China has only one foreign military base, in East Africa. This disparity creates tension, as the U.S. aims to contain China’s influence while China responds by expanding its economic and geopolitical influence across Asia. When the US was a unipolar power, it was logical for it to have hundreds of bases around the world. Now, in a multipolar, multinodal era, this looks like imperial overreach.

Al Leong: How does artificial intelligence factor into this competition?

Daniel Araya: “AI is one of the few technical areas where both China and the U.S. want to compete for competitive advantage. The United States used to be more open about sharing technological innovation, but now it’s becoming more protective. Most countries now see AI as strategic, something they can’t afford to miss out on. This isn’t just economic — it’s also about military applications, and there are efforts to create regulatory systems through international bodies like the United Nations to ensure AI is used ethically, especially in military affairs.”

Education and the Need for Rejuvenation

Al Leong: In your writing, you’ve pointed out the education gap in the U.S., especially compared to countries like China that emphasize graduating armies of STEM workers. How does this impact America’s position on the global stage?

Daniel Araya: “The U.S. has been losing its edge in education, especially in the sciences for some time. We’ve focused on a service-based economy while outsourcing manufacturing, which made sense in a unipolar era but no longer makes sense in a multipolar era. China has invested heavily in education, particularly in science and engineering, and that’s given them an advantage in scaling technology.

If the U.S. wants to stay competitive, it will need to reinvent its education system and leverage robotics to ensure that it can compete with low-cost labor centers in emerging economies. The U.S. has a legacy of innovation, but that legacy is at risk if it doesn’t address the gaps in infrastructure and human capital. .”

The Future of Emerging Technologies and Ethical Innovation

Al Leong: With these challenges in mind, do you see any emerging technologies that could redefine the global landscape?

Daniel Araya: “Artificial intelligence and robotics will reshape the global economy in profound ways. In fact, these technologies are part of a cluster of new technologies that will completely reshape the world. Nations that lead in these technologies will lead the world. AI, in particular, has the potential to transform industries and redefine work, but it also brings ethical challenges. In my book Augmented Intelligence, I talk about the need for a balanced approach, one that allows for innovation but also considers the regulatory challenges that we’re only beginning to understand. We need new frameworks and new multilateral institutions to guide the responsible development of technology. The future will belong to those who can manage this balance, where technology serves humanity rather than the other way around.”

Conclusion Dr. Daniel Araya’s reflections reveal a world evolving from a single power center to a complex, interconnected network of influences. He emphasizes the need for ethical innovation and warns that democracies must adapt to remain competitive in the face of rising authoritarian models. As Araya notes, “It’s not just about who innovates faster, but who innovates responsibly.” His insights call for a future that embraces both ambition and accountability, offering a vision of progress that serves humanity above all.

To reach Daniel Araya, contact: https://www.dhirubhai.net/in/daniel-araya-phd/