The Power of Probability: How Scammers Exploit Mathematical Principles to Deceive

In a world driven by technology and data, scammers have found ingenious ways to exploit unsuspecting individuals using principles as basic as probability. Let me share an intriguing story about how a cyber scammer used this mathematical tool to deceive Suresh, a social media user, and orchestrated a fraud worth ?8.5 lakhs.

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The Scam Story

It began with a random stranger reaching out to Suresh via a direct message on social media, claiming to be an expert in stock trading. The message was simple yet intriguing:

"Tomorrow, the stock of Company X will fall. Just keep an eye."

Suresh, like many of us, ignored the message. But the next day, Company X’s stock did fall. Still skeptical, Suresh shrugged it off as mere coincidence.

The stranger messaged again the following day:

"Company Y's stock will rise tomorrow. Watch and see."

To Suresh’s surprise, this prediction also turned out to be accurate. By the third day, the stranger predicted that the stock of Company Z.

"Tomorrow, the stock of Company Z will fall. Watch out."

And, once again, the prediction was correct.

To Suresh’s surprise, X, Y, and Z were all multinational, highly reputed, and trusted companies—so there was no chance their stocks could be manipulated.

This sequence of correct predictions piqued Suresh’s curiosity. Unable to dismiss the stranger’s claims any longer, Suresh engaged in a conversation, eventually leading to an investment in an app recommended by the stranger. Over time, Suresh invested ?8.5 lakhs, only to discover later that he had been scammed.

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The Application of Probability

What makes this scam particularly interesting is the scammer’s use of probability to make their predictions seem accurate to Suresh. Here’s how it worked:

1.???? Initial Pool of Victims: The scammer targeted 40 individuals via social media.

2.???? First Prediction (Company X):

·?????? To 20 people, the scammer predicted Company X’s stock would rise.

·?????? To the other 20, he predicted it would fall.

·?????? Probability of success = 20/40 = 1/2

·?????? Result: 20 predictions were correct.

3.???? Second Prediction (Company Y):

·?????? To 10 of the remaining 20, the scammer predicted Company Y’s e stock would rise.

·?????? To the other 10, he predicted it would fall.

·?????? Probability of success = 10/20 = 1/2

·?????? Result: 10 predictions were correct.

4.???? Third Prediction (Company Z):

·?????? To 5 of the remaining 10, the scammer predicted Company Z’s stock would rise.

·?????? To the other 5, he predicted it would fall.

·?????? Probability of success = 5/10 = 1/2

·?????? Result: 5 predictions were correct.

Suresh was one of the five who received three consecutive accurate predictions. i.e., the probability is (1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2) = 1/8. This means that for every 8 potential victims the scammer targets, 1 could believe him. This created the illusion that the scammer was a financial genius, despite the fact that the predictions were based purely on probability.

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The Lesson: How Scammers Exploit Trust with Probability

This scam demonstrates the powerful role of probability in deception. By systematically narrowing down a target group through predictions, the scammer created a narrative that appeared highly credible to a few victims. Suresh believed he was witnessing expertise, but in reality, he was just one of five individuals out of the initial 40 who saw consistent "success."

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Takeaways for US

Critical Thinking: Always question extraordinary claims, especially when they lack credible evidence.

Awareness of Mathematical Tricks: Understand that even principles like probability can be used deceptively.

Protect Your Investments: Avoid acting on unsolicited advice from strangers without thorough verification.

The next time you encounter a claim that seems too good to be true, remember Suresh’s story and how mathematics can be a tool not just for progress but also for deception.

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What do you think about this application of probability? Have you seen similar tactics in your professional or personal life? Let’s discuss!