Power over futures! ... what does it mean?

In 1951, Mechanics Illustrated captivated readers with an article envisioning personal helicopters as a means of transportation in the future. The article was illustrated with a picture of a gentleman in his own small helicopter, waving goodbye to his wife and son, who are on the roof wishing him a safe journey. These kinds of images of technology driven futures were not uncommon in the magazines of the 1950s and 60s. Another good example is the “Closer than we think” series by Arthur Radebaugh.

While personal helicopters may not have become a reality for most people, the influence of such imaginative images on our perceptions of the future cannot be overlooked. The stories and visuals we encounter significantly shape our understanding of what is possible. You can get a personal helicopter ride – especially if you are rich, live in Sao Paolo and want to escape traffic jams.

This raises the question about the power to shape perceptions of futures. Who defines our futures? The story from Mechanics Illustrated did not lead directly to rich people flying helicopters over traffic. But it and many similar images and stories have influenced how we think about futures and what we think is possible.

Why should we care about futures?

But why should we care about who defines futures? Why can’t we just be happy knowing that someone somewhere has thought about futures in the 1950s and soon we’ll all have personal helicopters?

To live in a future aligned with our values, we must acknowledge that the future will be different from what we once imagined. As Yogi Berra famously said, "the future ain't what it used to be." Consequently, if we wish to foster a fair and just transition to a sustainable world, enhance democracy, and ensure intergenerational equity, we must take power over futures seriously. Furthermore, as we navigate postnormal times characterized by conflict and contested futures, it becomes crucial to embrace a plurality of perspectives and foster inclusivity.

Lessons from critical futures studies

Thinking about questions of power isn’t new in futures studies and it has been addressed especially in critical futures studies. As Matti Minkkinen brilliantly summarizes: “Critical futures studies emphasises the investigation and critique of power relations, domination and foundational assumptions in envisioning and constructing futures, as well as developing social capacities to assert human purposes.”

To take just some of the insights from the rich literature on critical futures studies, we can say that stories, approaches and inclusion matter. Narrative foresight emphasizes the importance of stories in shaping our identity and indeed our reality. Decolonising futures highlights the influence of the practice and assumptions in futures thinking itself and embraces and celebrates other ways of knowing. The work done by NESTA and others in democratizing futures argue for the power of inclusion and diversity in countering pictures of doom and gloom and fatalism.

Drawing on previous work we have drafted some working definitions for power, power over futures, broadening power over futures and responsibility over futures. There are many excellent definitions of power and we follow one synthesised by Henrik Rydenfelt: Power is the ability to make others act in a manner that server the purposes of those who exercise it.

Following this definition, power over futures could be said to be the ability to define images of futures in a way that influences action by framing what is possible. By an image of the future we mean any description of what the future might be like.

Power over futures is an analytical concept. What we hope to do is broaden power over futures, that is broaden the range of images of futures and who is represented in them, who discusses futures and whose voice is heard and the overall abilities to define and discuss futures. Broadening the power over futures thus comes close to decolonizing futures – it has a clear direction.

In addition to thinking about how to broaden power, we can look at how to use existing power more responsibly. Responsibility over futures means acknowledging one's own position of power in influencing the future, understanding the effects of one's own views on the future, and taking action to broaden power over futures.

Levels of analysis

With these working definitions, we can start building a framework for structuring what power over futures is. First we can identify different levels of analysis. The most visible level of analysis – and thus a good starting point are the images of futures themselves. This includes looking at what is said and how the future is framed and described. A deeper level of analysis looks at who gets their voice heard, who is included and who is ignored. This includes analysing the diversity of participants, perspectives, discussion arenas etc. Beneath this level are the abilities to influence futures. Who gets their voice heard depends on power structures, capabilities for futures thinking, worldviews and assumptions etc.

To demonstrate these levels, here is our understanding of where we are in Finland with regards to power over futures. On the level of images of futures, we see and emphasis on technoeconomic visions on the one hand and doom and gloom on the other. Sometimes these come in the same package. On the question of who, the answer is a narrow set of experts. Discussion about futures is dominated and limited to few experts and lack the pluralism and diversity needed for this era of surprises. Furthermore, the ability to challenge and imagine is weak. It seems to be surprisingly hard to challenge existing assumptions about futures, imagine alternative futures and be open to discussing them. Responsibility over futures is lacking.

Different phases, different questions

The levels of analysis can be used as one heuristic to understand power over futures. Another dimension is that of the process or phase. Depending on where we are on a process, we might ask different questions. The picture below illustrates how the questions might differ. We use the filter theory developed by Igor Ansoff and adapted by Leena Ilmola to distinguish between different phases of the process.

For example when doing horizon scanning, we can look at what views are considered, whose views are considered or what are the abilities to consider different views. Or when in the decision making phase, we can look at what views are considered, who is included in decision making and subsequent action and who is left out, and how can multiple views be taken into account in the first place.

Broadening power and increasing responsibility

Power over futures - that is the power to define images of futures in order to achieve action in others – is an analytical concept, one that might be useful in deepening our understanding of questions of power. The concept invites us to critically examine who defines our futures and how this process can be more equitable and inclusive.

In addition to this analytical concept, we introduced two normative ones: responsibility over futures and broadening power over futures. Responsibility over futures might be useful for organisations that want to understand their role in shaping the future. We are currently developing tools to help in understanding and assessing responsibility over futures.

Broadening power over futures is a societal goal that aims to increase responsibility and promote a more inclusive future. We are currently testing different ways to broaden power over futures together with selected Finnish partners, and at the same time planning a bigger project to support this, based on what we learn.

By broadening power and assuming responsibility over futures, we can collectively shape a future that aligns with our values and aspirations. As we continue to develop our understanding of power over futures, we invite feedback and encourage conversations to foster a collaborative and transformative future.

This article is based on a presentation by Mikko Dufva and Jenna L?hdem?ki-Pekkinen at the Futures Conference 2023.

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