POWER OUTAGE PREDICTION | STAY AHEAD OF THE CURVE WITH PREDICTIVE MAINTENANCE

Needless to say, electricity is critical in our lives. More or less, all assets, equipment, and infrastructure rely on power sources. But sometimes, the electrical power network or the electrical grid is unavailable, causing power outages. Power disruption in facilities, especially industries, can impact their operation in more ways than one can imagine.

Thus, it is crucial for utilities to ensure an uninterrupted power supply during working hours. It is vital to gather and analyze power outage data that can help forecast potential power outages, evaluate power performance, and predict weather hazards that lead to power outages.

POWER OUTAGES: CAUSES, PREVENTION, AND PREDICTION

Power outages are one of the most common reasons that can cause an interruption in business operations. From extreme weather events to faults in power grids and from human errors to a lack of non-renewable resources, there can be several reasons responsible for power outages.

Since there are many factors that can cause power outages, it can be challenging to prevent them completely. For example, preventing weather-related power outages completely can be difficult. However, factors such as human errors and equipment failures can be prevented. Utilities can upgrade power lines and transformers, fortify critical power lines, and have backup plans in place to prevent blackouts and prolonged power outages.

They can also leverage big data analysis, machine learning, and other advanced techniques to predict outages and forecast storm events, hurricanes, and other extreme weather activities before they occur.

THE NEED FOR RAPID PREDICTION AND RESPONSE TO POWER OUTAGES CAUSED BY EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS

Extreme weather events that cause power outages can lead to damaged power infrastructure, severe economic impact (due to disruptions in business operations and supply chains), and disruptions in the lives of people.

However, accurate outage predictions and rapid responses can help utilities restore power quickly, improving customer satisfaction, and reducing the impact of outages on daily life.

Let us understand the need for rapid outage prediction and what are the critical responses to outage events that are caused by extreme events.

IMPACT OF POWER OUTAGES ON BUSINESSES AND COMMUNITIES

Power outages can lead to serious repercussions to business operations, causing prolonged downtime of assets and equipment and loss of productivity. Businesses that rely on electricity for manufacturing and production operations can face significant financial losses and damage to reputation if targets are not met.

Extreme weather events that lead to power outages can also disrupt important channels for communities. For example, frequent outages can bring the operations of hospitals and public transportation to a halt and can also impact tourism in the area.

IMPORTANCE OF PREDICTING AND RESPONDING TO POWER OUTAGES BEFORE THEY OCCUR

As power outages can cause significant disruptions to businesses, homes, and public services, it is crucial to predict and respond to outages before they occur. Precise outage predictions and accurate weather forecasts can ensure that businesses and individuals are prepared, which can minimize the impact of outages on business operations and people’s lives.

Predicting and responding to outages in advance can also help to improve the reliability of the power grid. This can help to reduce the frequency and severity of outages, improving the overall quality and reducing the duration of disruptions.

SIGNIFICANCE OF POWER OUTAGE PREDICTION

Power outages can cause significant inconveniences for customers, especially when outages occur suddenly. However, thanks to data-driven technologies, power outages can be predicted with better accuracy.

Here are some reasons why it is crucial to predict power outages in advance:

IMPROVING THE CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE

When a power outage is predicted, customers receive timely warnings about the outages in their area. This can help customers plan and make necessary arrangements.

Timely alerts enable customers to stock up on essentials like food and water and arrange backup power sources for long-duration outages. This can reduce the inconvenience and stress associated with unexpected power outages.

Additionally, accurate outage predictions enable utilities to communicate more effectively with customers, increasing their transparency and enhancing response time.?

REDUCING RESTORATION TIMES

Unexpected outages usually take more time to restore power. However, early predictions of the power outage can help utilities to detect potential problems with the power grid, take preventive measures, repair damaged equipment, and upgrade power infrastructure, which can be instrumental in quickly restoring power.

Utilities can identify and prioritize areas with critical infrastructure, such as hospitals and emergency services. They can also mobilize repair crews and equipment to the affected and critical areas before the outages happen. This can contribute to reducing the time to restore power to customers.

ENHANCING OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY

With a power outage prediction dataset, utilities can quickly and accurately diagnose technical problems that are likely to cause power outages in the future. The data helps utilities to proactively conduct maintenance checks and activities to prevent outages from occurring in the future. This includes activities such as tree trimming, upgrading equipment maintenance, and taking preventive steps to minimize the impact on power infrastructure.

These proactive measures can reduce the need for reactive repairs and improve the overall reliability and operational efficiency of the power system.

HOW IS THE POWER OUTAGE PREDICTION DONE?WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS OF PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE?

In case of a power outage, power utility companies usually don’t know the exact cause of the problem. An analysis of the problem is carried out by the utility crew and technicians to find out the fault in the electric grid and infrastructure. Thanks to new technologies, utilities can analyze and identify signals of the potential problem to effectively predict power outages.

Modern technological solutions enable utility operators and technicians to predict the condition of power lines or grids that are generally not easily detected by conventional prediction techniques. Deep Neural Networks (DNN), or artificial networks in Machine Learning (ML) capabilities, can mimic the human brain through a combination of data inputs. Thus, ML-based outage prediction models use weather forecast data and client data to forecast and respond to potential power outages.

Based on the weather forecasts and data available, an effective outage prediction model informs customers of upcoming outages and the response time to restore power. It also helps utilities respond to outages by restoring power quickly by optimizing crews at appropriate locations. An AI and ML-based outage prediction model can also predict the level of resources required to optimize mobilizations.

CASE STUDIES: UTILITIES

CASE STUDY 1: éNERGIE NB POWER

During winters In New Brunswick (NB), Canada, the mercury can plunge as low as -30°C. Power outages in the area are quite common when storms affect the area. Considering the harsh climatic conditions, restoring power in the area is exigent. It was a challenge for the local utility crew to restore power and mobilize repair crews by merely relying on rely on weather forecasts.

As a result of leveraging Outage Prediction from The Weather Company (an IBM business), ?énergie NB Power could effectively forecast areas that were likely to get severely affected and mobilize their resources accordingly.

Thanks to the accuracy of forecasts and the Machine Learning-based prediction (outage) model, 90% of affected customers restored power within 24 hours after the storms hit. The mobilization of repair crews was rapidly accelerated. Additionally, millions of dollars could be saved each year by reducing the duration of outages.

CASE STUDY 2: HYDRO ONE

As an electricity transmission and distribution service provider, Hydro One deals with a large number of power outages. Extreme weather events, including storms and heavy precipitation, pose serious power-related challenges to the people of Ontario, Canada. More and more customers in the region expect their power to be restored at the earliest.

Hydro One majorly relied on conventional methods to predict potential outages and analyze weather forecasts. As a result, it couldn’t proactively respond to outages as the company was clueless about how weather events might impact its system. To improve its performance, Hydro One was looking for modern solutions to stay ahead of the weather forecast, predict the impact of outages, and activate emergency response protocol.

Hydro One turned to The Weather Company’s Outage Prediction Tool to make better decisions around mobilizing resources around severe weather forecasts. Its AI tools analyze Hydro One customer data to compare it with weather patterns that caused power interruptions in the past.

Thanks to IBM’s outage prediction model, Hydro One can effectively map a weather forecast against response staging, activate emergency procedures, and initiate an incident command center for repairing lines and restoring power after an outage.

CONCLUSION

Predicting power outages is a complex task that requires a multi-faceted approach. Factors such as weather conditions, system load, and equipment failures can all contribute to power outages, and predicting with accuracy requires the integration and analysis of multiple data sources.

Machine learning algorithms, particularly those using deep neural networks, have shown promise in predicting power outages. Utilities leveraging ML-based outage prediction models can gain crucial insights into weather forecasts and the impact of outages. This helps them make informed decisions while mobilizing resources and restoring power quickly.

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