Power Markets This Winter: PJM, MISO, SPP, Mid-C, NYISO & ISO-NE

Power Markets This Winter: PJM, MISO, SPP, Mid-C, NYISO & ISO-NE

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发布日期: 2024年12月19日
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As winter approaches, understanding key trends in the power markets is crucial for traders, analysts and asset owners. This blog expands on the Winter 2024 Power Market Outlook webinar, focusing on the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), PJM Interconnection (PJM), Southwest Power Pool (SPP), New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), Mid-Columbia (Mid-C) and ISO New England (ISO-NE) regions. Below, we’ll explore weather forecasts, renewable energy developments, transmission updates and price predictions to provide a comprehensive analysis to guide you this winter season.

With a 15-year head start in renewables and grid intelligence, real-time grid optimization to the node and unparalleled expertise in load forecasting that has outperformed the ISO forecasts, Enverus Power and Renewables is uniquely positioned to support all power insight needs and data driven decision making. More than 6,000 businesses, including 1,000+ in electric power markets, rely on our solutions daily.

MISO: Renewable Growth Meets Congestion Challenges?

Weather Outlook and Load Predictions?

January and February loads across MISO and PJM are expected to be lower than expected with higher temperatures versus the historical average since 2010. Wind is expected to be higher in MISO and lower in PJM versus the historical average since 2010. For more than 25 years, Enverus has set the market for load forecast accuracy.


MISO’s winter forecast aligns with ENSO-neutral to weak La Ni?a conditions, predicting milder-than-average temperatures with short but intense cold snaps. December’s cold risk, modeled after 2016 analogs, includes extreme lows such as -1°F in Indianapolis. However, January and February are anticipated to remain warmer overall, reducing heating demand.?


Renewable Energy and Infrastructure Updates? MISO is experiencing significant renewable energy additions, particularly solar projects like the Double Black Diamond Solar Project, an 800 MW facility expected online by January. The project will enhance grid reliability but could create localized congestion near Springfield, Illinois.?

Price and Heat Rate Forecasts?

Much of the congestion risk for January is front loaded with transmission work early in the month increasing the risk for MAPL-CHRY, which would push INDY HUB heat rates near our bullish scenarios. Enverus power solutions help users understand the grid and manage your load and power plants to best mitigate risks related to congestion, pricing and reliability.


Roughly 1GW of generator outages are expected in February 2025 in MISO, weakening the supply stack.?


Price forecasts for MISO suggest elevated heat rates due to congestion risks and cold snap potential. December’s base heat rate of 14.5 aligns with market expectations, while January and February see higher forecasts at 14.9 and 15.2 due to planned generator outages and regional transmission constraints.?


Interested in getting insights like these daily? Check out a sample of our Power Market Publications here: https://go.enverus.com/pwr-power-market-publications-report


PJM: Balancing Stability With Scarcity Pricing Risks?

Weather Trends and Load Impacts?

December load and wind across PJM are expected to be inline with historical averages since 2010. Looking at 2016 analog year, there is potential cold risk around the 19th of the month when Chicago measured a bone chilling -13F. For more than 25 years, Enverus has set the market for load forecast accuracy.


PJM is projected to experience a generally mild winter, punctuated by brief cold events. December’s cold anomalies, reflecting 2016 patterns, could lead to significant demand spikes. January and February continue the mild trend but with occasional risks of colder weather.?


Transmission constraints are expected to be significant in the month of December. Conaston-Hunterstown and Milwood-Sakron line outages are expected to play significant roles in contributing to congestion.?


Transmission and Capacity Developments? Transmission constraints remain a significant factor in PJM. Outages on key lines, such as the Millwood-Sakron 500 kV, are expected to drive bullish congestion in December and January. Additionally, Dominion’s Fredericksburg-to-Possum Point rebuild, though not yet impacting winter 2024, underscores the long-term need for infrastructure upgrades.?

Market Trends and Pricing? PJM’s December heat rate forecast of 16.2 indicates congestion-driven price risks, particularly around the WHUB. Risks extend into January and February, with heat rates climbing further due to transmission outages and localized cold snaps.?

SPP: Integrating Wind and Alleviating Congestion?

December to February load across SPP are expected to be lower than expected with warmer temperatures versus the historical average since 2010. Wind is expected to be higher in SPP versus the historical average since 2010 for the months of January and February. For more than 25 years, Enverus has set the market for load forecast accuracy.


Weather Forecast and Load Expectations??

SPP anticipates warmer-than-average winter conditions, with analog years like 2017 highlighting short but intense cold snaps in January. The overall milder weather should reduce system-wide load, but these sharp events pose risks to grid reliability especially if they include ice storms reduce wind generation.?


A number of renewable projects are slated to come online within the first half of 2025. Enverus project coverage is the most comprehensive in the market, spanning more than 25,000 solar projects, 15,500 wind projects, 23,000 traditional projects and 7,000 storage projects. Enverus continuously monitors the interconnection queue for project timelines.


Renewable Energy and Transmission Projects??

SPP is at the forefront of wind energy expansion, with projects such as:?

  • Gruver Wind (160 MW in Oklahoma)?
  • Oliver County Wind (200 MW in North Dakota)?

Additionally, transmission projects like the Norman Hills Transmission Expansion aim to address congestion in key areas around Oklahoma City.?

Price and Heat Rate Trends??

SPP’s pricing outlook reflects moderate risks, with December heat rates forecast at 16.7, aligning closely with market expectations. January and February rates are slightly elevated at 16.5, driven by wind integration challenges and potential transmission congestion.?

NYISO: Navigating Renewable Expansion Amid Volatile Weather?

Weather Outlook and Load Predictions??


January and February load across NYISO is expected to be lower than expected with higher temperatures versus the historical average since 2010. Wind is also expected to be lower versus the historical average since 2010. For more than 25 years, Enverus has set the market for load forecast accuracy.


NYISO’s winter will likely be shaped by ENSO-neutral to weak La Ni?a conditions, with December predicted to experience below-average temperatures, increasing heating degree days. In contrast, January and February are forecasted to be milder, reducing overall load expectations but leaving room for price volatility during cold snaps.???


Two major and a number of smaller renewable projects are slated to come online by mid-2025. Enverus project coverage is the most comprehensive in the market, spanning more than 25,000 solar projects, 15,500 wind projects, 23,000 traditional projects and 7,000 storage projects. Enverus continuously monitors the interconnection queue for project timelines.


Renewable Energy Developments??

New York continues its ambitious clean energy transformation, driven by projects like:?

  • Big Tree Solar Project (175 MW with 20 MW of battery storage), anticipated to address grid congestion in western New York
  • Steel Winds Energy Center, a 290 MW wind facility aimed at bolstering regional reliability?

Market Dynamics and Price Forecasts??

NYISO faces high variability in December prices, with bullish scenarios driven by tight reserves and potential cold spells. January’s milder temperatures may soften demand, but lingering risks remain from high gas prices and constrained capacity. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative has further raised fossil fuel generation costs, influencing heat rate forecasts.?

ISO-NE: Balancing Growth and Clean Energy Ambitions?

Weather Patterns and Load Predictions??


December load and wind across NEISO is expected to be higher than expected with lower temperatures versus the historical average since 2010. January and February are expected to see higher temperatures. For more than 25 years, Enverus has set the market for load forecast accuracy.


ISO-NE is expected to experience above-average temperatures for much of the winter, except December, which may be colder than usual. The potential for short-term extreme weather remains high, warranting close monitoring.?


No completion date has been provided for NECEC yet due to a legal battle over an appeal process related to required circuit breaker upgrades at Seabrook. Enverus continuously monitors project timelines to provide the latest information about project status.

Infrastructure Developments? ISO-NE is advancing projects like:?

  • Vineyard Wind, partially operational with a capacity of 136 MW, leading the nation’s offshore wind initiatives
  • New England Clean Energy Connect (NECEC), bringing 1,200 MW of hydro power from Canada into the grid

Market Trends and Prices? ISO-NE’s price trends mirror NYISO, with December facing the most upward pressure due to heating demand. Low solar generation further shifts reliance to natural gas and oil, raising winter price forecasts. Transmission upgrades aim to reduce localized congestion, though key constraints remain.?

Mid-C: Capacity Challenges and the Influence of Hydro Generation?


Hydro and Load Forecasts?

The Mid-C region is expected to see average precipitation levels, with potential dry spells in December offset by wetter January conditions. Historically cold winters like 2017 serve as analog years, pointing to risks of sharp and prolonged demand spikes.?


Capacity Outlook?

Mid-C is facing capacity issues due to plant retirements. A number of projects are in queue to be built, but will they be built in time? Enverus project coverage is the most comprehensive in the market, spanning more than 25,000 solar projects, 15,500 wind projects, 23,000 traditional projects and 7,000 storage projects. Enverus continuously monitors the interconnection queue for project timelines.


Mid-C faces pressing capacity issues due to limited new thermal builds and coal plant retirements, notably Colstrip. While renewable additions like the Klamath Cogen expansion (1,100 MW) provide some hope, they are insufficient to address the near-term shortfall.?


Price and Market Dynamics?

Enverus Mid-C On-Peak (heavy load) shows heat rates are very bullish even with near average load and hydro-generation. Winter load will constrain the Mid-C grid and the N.W. will need power from neighboring regions to relive some of the potential shortages, especially if there is a cold snap in December.


Capacity constraints, combined with Washington’s carbon pricing, push Mid-C’s prices higher than the market base case. December’s hydro generation levels will play a pivotal role in price trends. Scarcity pricing is a significant risk during prolonged cold snaps, particularly as wind generation typically declines during such events.?


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