Power Flies

The recent concurrent sessions of Pakistan’s National Assembly and Senate signal the government’s determination to push through a constitutional amendment aimed at reshaping the judiciary in its favor. With the government and its military backers working to secure the two-thirds majority needed for this change, the move raises serious concerns about its potential impact on the country's political and economic future. Historically, attempts to control the judiciary have often led to increased political instability and worsened socio-economic conditions. This time may be no different.

Judiciary-Military Relations: A History of Control

Pakistan’s judiciary has long been influenced by military regimes, serving as a tool to legitimize unconstitutional power grabs. The "Doctrine of Necessity," first invoked by Chief Justice Munir in 1954 to justify Governor-General Ghulam Muhammad’s dissolution of the Constituent Assembly, set the precedent for a compliant judiciary. Over the years, this practice continued, particularly under military rulers like Ayub Khan, Zia-ul-Haq, and Pervez Musharraf. These regimes often relied on the judiciary’s willingness to rubber-stamp their decisions, with few instances of judicial defiance.

A notable exception occurred in 2007 when Musharraf’s attempt to remove Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry backfired, triggering the Lawyers’ Movement. This movement rallied civil society, including lawyers, journalists, and political parties, around the cause of judicial independence. Chaudhry’s eventual restoration weakened Musharraf’s grip on power, leading to elections that brought the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) to power in Islamabad and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) to power in Lahore.

The period following Chaudhry’s restoration saw the judiciary regain some independence, but this was not without its own challenges. Chaudhry himself became a highly influential figure, using his newfound power to interfere in the political and administrative spheres. Many of his decisions, such as those related to the Reko Diq mining case and the Pakistan Steel Mills privatization, were seen as detrimental to the economy. Chaudhry’s era marked a shift toward a more interventionist judiciary, which set the stage for future tensions between the judiciary and other branches of government.

Economic Instability: A Decade of Decline

Pakistan’s economy has faced significant challenges over the past decade, compounded by political instability. After Nawaz Sharif’s government was destabilized in 2017, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) came to power in 2018, promising reform. However, Khan’s government was unable to deliver on many of its promises, and political fragmentation worsened. By the time Khan was ousted through a parliamentary vote of no confidence in 2022, Pakistan’s public debt had skyrocketed from PKR 25 trillion in 2018 to PKR 42.9 trillion by the end of FY2022—a 72% increase.

The prolonged tenure of the caretaker government that followed Khan’s ouster and the subsequent general elections in February 2024 did little to stabilize the economy. Inflation reached a 50-year high of 38% in May 2023, and the country’s currency depreciated by over 20% against the U.S. dollar that same year. Meanwhile, Pakistan remained reliant on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for bailouts, with the most recent $3 billion package coming with strict austerity measures that further strained the public.

Given this economic context, the government’s focus on reshaping the judiciary, rather than addressing the country’s pressing financial and social challenges, appears disconnected from the immediate needs of the people. Inflation, unemployment, and the devaluation of the currency continue to erode the quality of life for the masses. The government's failure to prioritize these issues may lead to growing public discontent, exacerbating the already volatile political landscape.

The Judiciary as a Political Battleground

The government’s push to control the judiciary is driven by its belief that certain members of the judiciary, particularly those excluding the chief justice, are obstructing its political agenda. This perception has led to efforts to limit judicial independence through constitutional amendments and changes to Supreme Court procedures, such as those proposed in the Practice and Procedures Act. The government views these changes as necessary to ensure that the judiciary does not interfere with its plans, particularly in relation to opposition figures like Imran Khan.

However, history shows that excessive interference in the judiciary often leads to political instability rather than stability. During Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry’s tenure, the judiciary became a powerful political actor, making decisions that had far-reaching consequences. For example, Chaudhry’s involvement in the Reko Diq case, which resulted in a $6 billion penalty imposed on Pakistan by the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), is often cited as a prime example of how judicial overreach can have damaging economic consequences.

The situation worsened under Chaudhry’s successor, Saqib Nisar, who was known for his aggressive behavior and close ties to the military establishment. Nisar’s term saw a further erosion of judicial standards, with many accusing him of acting in line with the interests of the intelligence agencies. His tenure set the expectation of total compliance with the military’s agenda, further politicizing the judiciary.

Now, as the government seeks to control judicial appointments and limit the judiciary’s influence, it faces resistance from within the judiciary itself. This internal conflict raises doubts about whether the proposed constitutional changes will bring about the desired stability. Instead, they may further deepen the country’s political and economic crises.

Impact on Economic Stability

The judiciary’s role in political stability is closely linked to Pakistan’s economic performance. A 2021 study by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) highlighted how legal uncertainty and judicial inefficiency contribute to economic underperformance. Foreign direct investment (FDI), a key driver of economic growth, has been particularly affected by political instability and legal uncertainty. FDI in Pakistan declined by 29% in FY2023, falling to $1.45 billion from $2.04 billion in FY2022. Investors are often wary of entering markets where the legal system is perceived as unstable or unpredictable.

By seeking to undermine judicial independence, the government risks further eroding investor confidence, which could have long-term consequences for the economy. Without political and legal stability, Pakistan is unlikely to attract the foreign investment needed to spur economic growth and create jobs. Moreover, the government's focus on judicial reforms, rather than on addressing economic challenges like inflation and unemployment, may lead to greater public dissatisfaction.

The Role of the Public in Shaping the Future

Ultimately, the nation itself holds the key to resolving the current crisis. While the government’s efforts to reshape the judiciary may offer short-term political gains, they are unlikely to lead to long-term stability. Governance that prioritizes political control over the welfare of the people has historically failed to deliver meaningful progress in Pakistan.

Imran Khan’s PTI, despite being out of power, remains a significant political force, maintaining a strong base of popular support. This suggests that political maneuvering alone will not be sufficient to neutralize opposition or bring about the stability the government seeks. The judiciary’s resistance to government control, coupled with the public’s growing frustration over economic conditions, indicates that the current political strategy may lead to more instability rather than less.

In conclusion, while the government’s push to control the judiciary may provide a temporary political advantage, it risks further destabilizing the country’s already fragile political and economic systems. Only a governance model that prioritizes the welfare of the people and respects judicial independence can bring about the stability Pakistan so desperately needs.