The Power of Complex Systems: Why We Should Hold on Loosely to What Works

Elections have just happened at the Guildhall. A few weeks ago, I had the privilege of hearing the Lord Mayor of London speak at the Barber-Surgeons' Hall . It had all the splendour of a City function: white tie with decorations (as formal as it gets) was the dress code, with women in ball gowns and gloves, plenty of medals, and someone obligingly turned up with a blue sash. This wasn’t a gathering of ambassadors and princesses, though, and sadly there was no Ferrero Rocher. Instead, it was an eclectic group of professionals who had come together to welcome the Lord Mayor to their Hall.

Far from giving a safe, expected speech about London and its well-known attributes, the Lord Mayor delivered an impassioned talk on what he believes truly makes London great. As a professor as well as a professional, his perspective was enlightening.

I learned that many of our great institutions started off in coffee shops. Happily for me, one called Jonathan's, for example, later became the Stock Exchange, while Lloyd's of insurance fame kept its name. The secret behind their success was the connections made and the sharing of views in these informal, collaborative spaces, what Matt Ridley calls “idea sex.”

But that’s just the beginning. Cities like London are complex systems where ideas are undergoing a constant process of Darwinian evolution. The Lord Mayor’s explanation of these networks and emergent effects really hooked me.

A city isn’t just a collection of buildings and people. It’s a complex system—a living, breathing entity where countless interactions are happening at any given moment. These interactions give rise to emergent phenomena: results that couldn’t have been predicted from the sum of the parts. From the humble beginnings of coffeehouse conversations to the global financial powerhouse that London is today, we can see how innovation evolves through this process of emergence.

Like in nature, where evolution drives adaptation and survival, it’s the constant experimentation and iteration within cities that leads to greatness. No one planned the rise of the Stock Exchange or the success of Lloyd’s. Instead, these were the unpredictable outcomes of countless smaller, interconnected events. The beauty of complex systems is that the best results often emerge from the least expected places—yet they can never be fully anticipated or controlled. As in a physical ecosystem, more participants and interactions create new opportunities for innovation, allowing more individuals and institutions to thrive. This dynamic process of growth, driven by interconnectivity, fuels the success of all. Far from the winner takes all or zero sum idea of more participants leading to a smaller slice of the pie for all, this creates a larger pie, meaning more for all.

This idea of unpredictability is why it’s important to hold on loosely to what works. In our personal and professional lives, we often form strong opinions based on our experience and evidence, and that’s natural. But in a world where change is constant and new ideas can emerge from anywhere, we have to be willing to adapt.

The Lord Mayor’s reflections reminded me of the philosophy of “strong opinions, weakly held.” It’s about having conviction, but being open to new evidence, new ideas, and new ways of thinking. Complex systems, like cities and businesses, thrive on flexibility. Holding too tightly to any one way of thinking or doing things can blind us to the unexpected innovations that arise when we least expect them. In business and leadership, holding onto rigid frameworks can stifle progress. The most successful organizations today are those that remain adaptable—able to pivot when necessary, while fostering an environment that welcomes new perspectives. This is especially important in a complex system, where it is rarely obvious what the outcomes of particular actions will be due to the way that everything becomes interconnected.

As the Lord Mayor highlighted, so much of our progress comes down to the simple act of connection. It was over cups of coffee in those early days that London’s great institutions were born. It’s through face-to-face interactions that ideas collide, merge, and evolve. This is something we risk losing in today’s increasingly digital world.

While technology enables us to communicate globally in an instant, it’s the in-person interactions that truly foster creativity and innovation. The spontaneous conversation over lunch, the shared laugh during a meeting, the unplanned ideas sparked in a hallway—these moments are irreplaceable.

We should be doing everything we can to protect and promote these opportunities for human connection. It’s these moments of togetherness, both formal and informal, that allow complex systems like cities, companies, and industries to thrive. Innovation isn’t just born in boardrooms or on video calls; it happens in the spaces where we meet, connect, and collaborate as people.

In a city as diverse as London, disagreement is inevitable—and that’s a good thing. In a complex system, differing viewpoints aren’t just valuable, they’re essential. It’s through the friction of different ideas that the best innovations often emerge. Tolerance doesn’t just mean accepting other views—it means creating an environment where differing opinions are encouraged and allowed to challenge the status quo.

We must foster cultures, both in our workplaces and in our communities, that are tolerant of disagreement. Instead of seeing differences as obstacles, we should view them as opportunities for growth. After all, it’s from diversity—of thought, background, and opinion—that the most unexpected and brilliant ideas are born.

So, as we navigate this ever-evolving world, let’s remember that greatness often comes from the most unpredictable places. Hold on to what works—but not too tightly. Cultivate strong opinions, but remain open to being proven wrong. And above all, prioritize connection and community. It’s through togetherness, through the spontaneous collisions of ideas and the tolerance of differing viewpoints, that we will continue to thrive.

Whether it’s a coffee shop or a corporate office, our strength lies in our ability to come together, challenge each other, and embrace the unexpected. As the Lord Mayor reminded us, London’s greatness—indeed, our collective greatness—is in our togetherness.

And as leaders, it's our responsibility to foster environments where connection, diversity of thought, and adaptability are not just encouraged but actively cultivated. By doing so, we contribute not only to our own success but to the collective greatness of the institutions, cities, and communities we are part of.

Thank you, Michael Mainelli and congratulations, The Rt Hon. the Lord Mayor Alastair King , I hope you enjoy the year ahead.