Powell Holds the Line

What has President Trump said this week?

“I call it America First. This is the policy that built this country, and this is the policy that will save our country.” Donald J. Trump

President Donald Trump is back in the White House, becoming the first president to lose re-election and return to power four years later since Grover Cleveland in 1893. Trump's second-term agenda is set to both dismantle previous policies and build new ones, revisiting and expanding upon his earlier initiatives. He has made numerous claims and promises, many of which are easier said than done, or require further action than simply stating them.

In this section, we examine President Trump’s most recent statements and promises, analyzing their feasibility and impact on the economy and the financial industry.

1. Conflict of Interest (Rates)

Last month, President Trump took to Truth Social, declaring that “Interest Rates should be lowered” as part of his MAGA economic plan. While Trump has no direct authority over the Federal Reserve, his policies—including tariff hikes, mass deportations, and sweeping budget cuts through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)—are increasing pressure on the Fed to respond to shifting economic conditions.

In August 2024, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stood at the podium at the Jackson Hole conference, delivering an optimistic outlook. He announced the Fed’s plan to begin cutting interest rates, signaling the end of its years-long fight against pandemic-era inflation. “The time has come,” Powell told the audience, pointing to a steady decline in price increases. But just months later, that confidence has faded. Trump’s unpredictable trade policies have rattled markets, fueled inflation fears, and heightened recession risks. The Fed warns of rising unemployment, slower GDP growth, and increased economic uncertainty (NBC, 2025).

Today, Wednesday, March 19th, the Fed met to assess whether a change in reference interest rates was warranted. The Fed kept rates unchanged, with Powell blaming Trump’s tariffs for a “good part” of recent price increases. With Trump pushing for cuts while enacting inflationary policies, the Fed faces mounting challenges in balancing economic stability and political pressure.

2. All Eyes on a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

On Wednesday, March 19th, President Trump spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss a recent conversation between the U.S. ambassador and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

According to Trump, the call addressed both Russia’s and Ukraine’s “requests and needs” in pursuit of a ceasefire. While Putin agreed to temporarily halt attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, he refused the 30-day ceasefire Trump had pushed for. Despite this—and Russia’s near-immediate violation of the pause—Trump insists negotiations are “very much on track.”

Further talks are set for Sunday in Saudi Arabia, where discussions will center on a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea and a broader peace agreement (Reuters, 2025).

3. Billions for Climate Still on Track—For Now

A federal judge has temporarily blocked the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) from revoking $14 billion in climate grants awarded under the Biden administration. The EPA cited alleged fraud and mismanagement by grant recipients, but failed to provide sufficient evidence. The agency framed the move as part of the Trump administration’s broader deregulation agenda (NYT, 2025).

This decision is just one piece of a larger shift in environmental policy. Trump’s presidency has consistently prioritized deregulation over climate policy. During his first term, he withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, and on the first day of his second term, he did so again—reaffirming his administration’s opposition to global climate cooperation. These rollbacks could have serious public health consequences, as targeted regulations were projected to prevent nearly 200,000 deaths over the next 25 years by reducing pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions (The Guardian, 2025).

Now, the EPA is taking its efforts even further. Last week, the Agency announced plans to dismantle 31 environmental regulations, including a key ruling that serves as the foundation of U.S. climate policy. “By overhauling massive rules on the endangerment finding, the social cost of carbon, and similar issues, we are driving a dagger through the heart of climate-change religion and ushering in America’s Golden Age,” wrote EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin in The Wall Street Journal (WSJ, 2025). But undoing regulations is a slow and complex process, and in the case of climate rules, the agency may be creating legal challenges for itself.

TRUMPONOMICS 2.0

Following President-elect Donald J. Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris, the financial world witnessed an immediate response. In just one week, the S&P 500’s value surged by $1.9 trillion, pushing stocks to record highs. The U.S. dollar strengthened globally and Bitcoin achieved unprecedented highs.

Wall Street is preparing for more government spending, lighter regulation, bigger deficits, and accelerating growth under a Trump administration and a Republican-led Congress.

Biden’s Economic Legacy

The Biden era was marked by headlines of massive layoffs and a cost of living crisis. The average worker faced double-digit increases in food, energy, housing, and other essential expenses that impacted middle-class families the most and consumed the bulk of household budgets. Despite record highs in the stock market, nearly half of Americans believed the nation was in a recession. Is this Biden’s fault? No. Global supply chain disruptions, stimulus checks, the aftermath of COVID-19 lockdowns, and the ripple effects of geopolitical tensions all contributed to soaring prices. Did Americans blame Biden? Election results suggest they did. Two-thirds of voters believed the economy was on the wrong track.

Hence, Trumponomics 2.0.

Trump’s campaign capitalized on promises of economic revival, pledging to deliver low taxes, low regulations, low energy costs, low interest rates, and low inflation -Trumponomics.

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AI8 Ventures’ Research & Investment Team