PoV #14: Collective Points of View on Climate Trends in 2024: Key Insights from 15+ Sources On Elections, Policies, & Innovation

In the coming year, as the world grapples with the complex interplay of climate change, politics, economics, and technological advancements, one theme emerges as central to our collective future: the climate forecast for 2024. As we prepare to traverse this critical juncture, we find ourselves at the crossroads of climate destiny. In a symphony of articles, insights, and forecasts, this comprehensive overview aims to guide you through the multifaceted landscape of climate considerations for 2024.

From the ominous specter of a potentially record-breaking hot year, driven by the formidable force of El Ni?o, to the pivotal U.S. presidential election that could shape climate policy for years to come and the intricate dance between interest rates and the energy transition, our journey unfolds. We delve into the promising growth of renewable technologies, the evolving role of artificial intelligence in climate tech, and the seismic shifts in climate disclosures. From the emergence of a new workforce dedicated to climate initiatives to historic climate reparations agreements and the challenges of "greenhushing," this mosaic of perspectives paints a vivid portrait of a world on the precipice of change.

Join us as we navigate the complex climate currents in 2024, where our choices will ripple through the pages of the upcoming chapters and shape the world for generations to come.

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2024 Predicted to Break Heat Records: El Ni?o Amplifies Global Warming Trends (BLOOMBERG)

• Experts predict 2024 to be exceptionally hot and possibly hotter than the record-breaking year 2023 with El Ni?o, a climate cycle phase, contributing to the predicted heat in 2024.
• The global average temperature is estimated to rise by 1.3C to 1.6C in 2024, compared to the 1.5C increase seen in 2023.
• El Ni?o's shift in ocean conditions can lead to droughts and floods in different regions, affecting agriculture, food security, and wildfire risk in Southeast Asia, Indonesia, eastern Australia, and the US and Canada.
• Insurance markets in disaster-prone states like California, Louisiana, and Florida are in turmoil, leading to higher premiums for homeowners.
• Workplace heat standards, despite growing risks, face slow progress at the national level, with states and municipalities taking the lead.
• Rising global food prices, termed "heatflation," are affecting commodities like sugar, cocoa, and wheat due to climate-related factors.
• The second year of El Ni?o typically brings more heat, but the complex interactions of climate and weather patterns may lead to unexpected outcomes as some dynamics remain not fully understood.?

Presidential Election 2024: Climate Policy at Crossroads – How a Trump Win Could Shake the Climate Landscape (INSIDE CLIMATE NEWS)

• The U.S. presidential election is crucial for climate considerations this year, especially due to its impact on climate policy.
• Electing Donald Trump as president would pose significant challenges for global climate progress because the U.S. is a major emitter, has the largest economy, and represents the largest market.
• In the private sector, a Trump presidency would create uncertainty for corporate climate and decarbonization efforts.
• Federal tax incentives aimed at promoting clean energy would become a contentious issue, with some Republicans seeking their repeal. Even if complete repeal fails, Republicans in control of Congress and the White House could reduce funding or implement other measures to weaken these incentives.
• Corporate lobbyists in Washington, who were once key Republican supporters, are concerned that a Trump victory could lead to chaos in the climate policy landscape.
• Businesses should anticipate high uncertainty, making it challenging to plan and invest in climate initiatives. This uncertainty is particularly problematic given that many companies have committed hundreds of billions of dollars in capital expenditure to advance clean technology based on existing tax incentives and regulations.

Impact of Interest Rate on Energy Transition (TIME)

• High-interest rates challenge the renewable energy sector and affect various industrial sectors due to cost inflation. In contrast, conventional energy sources like gas and coal depend more on fuel costs than project construction costs.
• The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is a key metric that calculates the average cost of generating electricity, including construction, fuel, and financing fees. A 5% increase in interest rates can lead to a substantial 33% rise in the LCOE for wind and solar power, while the impact on natural gas plants is relatively minor.
• In recent years, low-interest rates and falling costs of wind and solar technology made renewable energy investments attractive. However, the current higher-interest rate environment is causing the levelized cost of wind and solar to rise for the first time in decades, as reported by Lazard.
• Despite these challenges, renewable energy still has advantages over fossil fuels, as gas remains slightly more expensive, and subsidies can offset some of the interest rate impacts.
• The IEA predicts that over half of new electricity demand by 2025 will be met by low-carbon sources, indicating a continued shift towards clean energy. Many large companies are committing to clean energy by entering long-term agreements to purchase renewable electricity, which can stabilize prices and reduce volatility.
• The Clean Energy Buyers Association recorded nearly 150 such deals in the past year, representing nearly 17 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity. While these developments are promising for the transition to renewable energy, the true test will be how the new interest rate environment affects the industry in the coming months.

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Renewable Energy in 2024: Growth, Challenges, and the Road Ahead (DELOITTE)

• ?2024 is expected to bring variable-speed growth across renewable technologies, industries, and markets.
• The Energy Information Administration predicts renewable deployment to grow by 17% in 2024, reaching 42 GW. Over the past two years, IIJA and IRA facilitated $227 billion in announced investments in utility-scale solar, storage, wind, and hydrogen. Of this, $100 billion has been realized, along with $82 billion in distributed renewables and heat pumps. In 2022, states provided a record $24 billion in tax incentives to attract projects. Renewables could account for almost a quarter of electricity generation in the US.
• ?High financing, labor, and land costs impacted levelized costs of energy (LCOEs) for wind and utility-scale solar. However, the belief is temporary cost increases in renewables during 2023 may not affect the long-term declining cost trend. Inflation and interest rates have disproportionately affected offshore wind.
• Many states and utilities have renewable portfolio standards and emissions reduction goals.Major corporations are joining initiatives to procure electricity entirely from renewables, driving corporate renewable procurement.
• Regulatory boosts and transmission buildout could help address grid constraints. Investment in manufacturing could strengthen supply chains for renewable technologies.
• A skilled workforce is needed to support the growth of renewable generation and manufacturing. Clean energy jobs have grown by 10% over the past two years, outpacing overall US employment growth. Currently, there are 3.3 million clean energy jobs, with the majority in energy efficiency, followed by renewable generation, clean vehicles, and storage and grid. Wind turbine service technicians and solar photovoltaic installers are among the fastest-growing occupations, with projected growth of 45% and 22%, respectively, from 2022 to 2032.
• The IRA, IIJA, and Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors Act are expected to create 19 million job-years or around 3 million jobs per year. A higher share of these direct jobs is available to workers without a bachelor's degree, offering higher-median wages on average. However, benefits and unionization rates are lower, and there is underrepresentation of women and minority groups.
• Major discoveries of critical minerals for renewable energy are expected in various regions of the U.S., promoting domestic mining and the renewable energy industry. Some of these discoveries are made by fossil fuel companies diversifying their portfolios. As a result, expect a surge in efforts to reform mining industry regulations and community-driven activism against specific projects.
• Public lands are being utilized for renewable energy projects, with the goal of permitting 25 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2025, though challenges persist.

AI & Climate: Balancing Potential and Power Consumption in the Quest for Sustainability (WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM)

• Investors anticipate a shift in focus from large language models to specific AI applications in climate tech. However energy consumption remains a concern for AI, with GPUs used in AI systems consuming four times as much power as cloud servers and requiring significant water for cooling.
• ?Nearly 90% of private and public sector CEOs consider AI an essential tool to combat climate change. However, the quality of data used by AI, often overlooked, is a critical factor. A recent study found that 75% of executives lack high trust in their data. AI models depend on robust and precise data sets to identify patterns and trends.
• Deploying robotics and AI in industries like power generation can have a substantial environmental impact. Eliminating boiler tube failures with AI could reduce global CO2 emissions by 4.8%. A Year of Climate Reporting Regulations - What Companies Need to Know (GREEN BIZ and TIME)
• The Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), effective in 2024, will tighten sustainability reporting requirements for large companies and SMEs, emphasizing accurate data collection and reporting.
• The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is expected to boost demand for low-carbon manufacturing and heavy industry in Europe by imposing carbon tariffs on carbon-intensive products.
• Expected in April, the U.S. SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) will mandate companies to report their Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions.
• In February, the U.S. Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, a part of the Department of Energy, will announce the winners of its carbon dioxide removal purchase pilot prize. These announcements will include details for corporate sustainability teams to conduct their own carbon removal due-diligence processes. Anticipated for release by summer, the Science Based Targets initiative is set to provide new guidance. This guidance will focus on the use of environmental attribute certificates, which include carbon credits, as part of decarbonization goals.
• By the end of 2024, companies subject to California's Climate Corporate Data Accountability Act (SB253) must establish processes. These processes will be for auditing their emissions in preparation for reporting on their 2025 emissions, which is due in 2026.?

Investment Shift Towards Tough-to-Decarbonize Sectors (NRDC):

• Investment momentum is shifting towards challenging-to-decarbonize sectors like industry, agriculture, and the built environment. Funding for industrials increased from just under 8% between 2013 and 2022 to 14% in the sector between Q4 2022 and Q3 2023.
• The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) provide substantial support for demonstrating transformative technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) plans to invest over $6 billion in such projects, led by the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (OCED). OCED is focusing on critical sectors like steel, cement, and aluminum, aiming to decarbonize supply chains from materials to energy systems. NRDC, along with partners, advocated for prioritizing early-stage deployments of advanced pre-commercial technologies for emissions reduction in industrial manufacturing.
• ?Most emissions from heavy industry come from process emissions and fuel emissions. Technologies like electrified cement kilns and inert anodes in aluminum need development and scaling. While some technologies, like hydrogen-based iron and steel production, show promise, they still face significant project risks. Diversifying the portfolio of technologies and industries is essential to mitigate risks and drive decarbonization.
• ?In 2024, the Industrial Demonstrations Program will announce awardees, offering up to a 50% cost-share for large decarbonization projects. Venture capitalists and private equity firms have invested nearly $3 billion in heavy industry decarbonization, particularly in the steel sector. Carbon Credit Market 2024: A Premium for Impactful Investments (CLIMATE TRADE)
• Despite controversies, carbon market customers seek high-quality credits for authentic and impactful investments. Buyers are willing to pay a premium price for credits with a greater environmental impact.
• Carbon credit prices surged from $4.04 per tonne in 2021 to $7.37 in 2022, the highest in 15 years. While overall transaction volumes dropped by 51% from a 2021 peak, issuances and retirements increased in 2022. Researchers view this as a "necessary regrouping" before anticipated market acceleration, with a focus on high-integrity credits.
• Market participants reported optimism about the Voluntary Carbon Market's rebound, emphasizing high-integrity credits. The Taskforce on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets projects a 15-fold increase from 2020 levels, potentially worth up to $50 billion by 2030. An additional $90 billion of capital is needed from 2022 to 2030 to meet climate goals.
• In 2024, demand for nature-based carbon credits is expected to surge, with over 50% of demand in the financial services sector. These credits support initiatives that reduce and remove emissions through activities like protecting landscapes and restoring ecosystems. Raised awareness of biodiversity conservation and habitat restoration, along with consumer support, drives the growth of nature-based solutions. Companies supporting nature-based initiatives enhance their brand reputations.Launch of the American Climate Corp (Link)
• - The American Climate Corps is set to launch in the summer of 2024, sending 20,000 individuals aged 18 to 26 to work on various climate-related projects across the United States.
• - This program is inspired by Franklin D. Roosevelt's Climate Conservation Corps and has received a significant number of applications, with 100,000 applicants.
• - While it aims to address climate issues, it faces criticism from the left for offering low wages and from the right for being seen as a government work program for young liberal activists.
• - However, it is expected to be popular among the public as it contributes to enhancing resilience to weather disasters in communities and helps address the shortage of skilled workers required for decarbonization efforts.?

COP28 Climate Summit Adopts Historic Damage Fund Amid Criticism of US Contribution (CNN)

• During COP28, a climate conference held in Dubai, countries reached an agreement to establish a climate reparations fund temporarily housed at the World Bank.
• Wealthy nations contributed over $650 million to this fund, and further contributions are anticipated. These include the UAE, the host country for COP28, who pledged $100 million, and Germany also pledged the same amount. The UK announced a contribution of ￡60 million, with a portion allocated for "other arrangements. The U.S. pledged $17.5 million, while Japan contributed $10 million to the fund. The United States faced criticism for contributing what some consider an inadequate amount of money to the damage fund.
• This fund was a long-standing priority for developing countries and climate justice advocates who argue that nations that contributed minimally to global warming are facing its consequences.
• In the coming year, the World Bank is expected to set up the fund and commence distributing funds to financially disadvantaged nations. The fund's board members will be selected, an executive director will be appointed, and criteria for countries to access the funds will be determined.

Brands Navigate a Chilling Effect on Purpose-Focused Initiatives Amidst Growing Climate Activism (ADWEEK) -

• A trend known as "greenhushing" has emerged, where more companies are concealing their climate commitments to avoid legal scrutiny and accusations of greenwashing.
• This trend intensified in 2023, with one in five companies opting not to publicly disclose their sustainability targets, marking a threefold increase compared to the previous year.
• To address this lack of transparency, California implemented an "anti-greenwashing" law starting on January 1, which mandates that companies disclose their carbon emissions.

Scientists Express Concern Over Slow Progress on Plastic Pollution Treaty Amidst Global Divisions (NATURE)

• International delegates have been working to finalize a U.N. treaty to combat plastic pollution, aiming to complete it by the end of 2024.
• However, there has been resistance from petrochemical industry interests, favoring a treaty focused on cleaning up plastic litter and improving recycling rates, rather than limiting plastic production.
• Progress has been slow, and it is possible that an extended deadline will be required to reach a comprehensive agreement.
• The longer the delay in establishing such a treaty, the greater the problem of unchecked plastic pollution continues to grow.?

Deloitte Forecasts Remarkable Growth in AgTech IoT Endpoints and $18 Billion Revenue Opportunity by 2024 (DELOITTE)

• Deloitte's prediction focuses on the proliferation of Internet of Things (IoT) endpoints in the agricultural sector, specifically in precision crop farming, livestock management, and agricultural equipment tracking. By the end of 2024, Deloitte anticipates that the installed base of IoT endpoints in these agricultural segments will reach approximately 300 million. This signifies an impressive 50% growth compared to the 200 million installed base recorded in 2022
• ?AgTech solutions play a vital role in addressing these challenges and transforming agricultural practices: They leverage data-driven insights and precision farming techniques to enhance crop yields. AgTech solutions enable more efficient utilization of equipment and better management of livestock. Farmers can plan their harvests more effectively, minimizing waste and resource inefficiency. Adoption of sustainable agrifood-production methods is facilitated through AgTech innovations.
• ?In 2024, the global revenue opportunity within AgTech is projected to be a substantial US$18 billion. This projection reflects a robust Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 19% over the four-year period spanning from 2020 to 2024. Congress is allocating funds for "climate-smart" agriculture, with debates over what qualifies as "climate smart" expected.

Cautious Optimism: Plant-Based Food and Protein Innovations Set to Thrive in 2024 (VEGCONOMIST)

• The Plant-based Innovation sector is poised for substantial revenue growth in 2024, driven by a growing health-conscious consumer base. Companies like Dole plc with a 42.9% sales increase and strong earnings from Vita Coco and Ingredion Incorporated highlight the broader shift toward healthier, sustainable food choices.
• ?The protein sector, especially in bars and protein powders, is projected to maintain its impressive growth trajectory in 2024, with a 39% three-year dollar sales growth rate according to The Good Food Institute (GFI). Innovation and diversification in protein sources by companies like AB InBev's EverGrain, SunOpta, and Ingredion Incorporated signal robust demand in both consumer and B2B markets.
• ?Price, second only to taste, plays a pivotal role in consumer purchasing decisions. The move toward price parity, as seen in the Netherlands where plant-based products become more affordable than meat, is expected to expand in the U.S. and other regions, driving consumer adoption and market growth.
• The plant-based seafood sector, gaining momentum, is expected to see significant growth in 2024. Factors such as the depletion of natural ocean resources, ocean acidification, and global food supply chain pressures contribute to this trend. Innovative and gourmet plant-based seafood products, like plant-based tinned fish, are predicted to energize the category Fashion Industry Falling Short - Only 4 out of 14 Brands on Track (VOGUE)
• Fashion industry is not meeting its climate targets effectively. A recent report by Stand.Earth evaluated 14 major brands and found that only 4 are on track to cut greenhouse gas emissions sufficiently to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
• Over $65 billion worth of apparel exports face the imminent threat of extinction due to climate events like floods and extreme heat.
• The European Union approved new eco-design legislation in December. Expected to be formally adopted in early 2024. The legislation includes a ban on destroying unsold textiles and footwear products. Requirements for product durability, reusability, repairability, and digital product passports to enhance transparency. Brands like Weekday , Desigual , and unspun? are exploring made-to-order models. Unspun offers 3D technology for on-demand clothing production.
• Innovations in eco-friendly dyes are emerging. Examples include Colorfix Masterbatches , Living Ink , and AIR-INK , which offer more sustainable dyeing methods.
• Stella McCartney introduced Kelsun, a seaweed-based yarn in her spring 2024 collection. Brands like Another Tomorrow are partnering with SeaCell, a material created by responsibly harvesting seaweed from Icelandic fjords.