PoV #11: From Cow Burps to Oil Wells: Battling the Methane Menace for a Cooler Planet

Methane, responsible for approximately one-third of global warming, stands as a formidable challenge amid the world's struggle with escalating temperatures and climate-related hazards. While the spotlight often shines on carbon dioxide emissions, the significant role played by methane emissions from human activities in driving global warming cannot be overstated. It contributes to approximately 30% of the temperature increase from preindustrial levels, making the mitigation of methane emissions imperative in achieving the goal of net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and stabilizing our climate.

The Escalating Methane Challenge

Regrettably, methane emissions have surged by approximately 25% over the past two decades, a stark contrast to the required 2% annual reduction needed to meet the warming targets set by the Paris Agreement. However, there is a glimmer of hope on the horizon. Recent research conducted by McKinsey reveals that five pivotal industries—agriculture, oil and gas, coal mining, solid-waste management, and wastewater management—hold the potential to reduce global methane emissions by 20% by 2030 and a substantial 46% by 2050. These reductions can be primarily achieved through existing technologies and at a reasonable cost.

?These five industries collectively account for a staggering 98% of human-generated methane emissions, making them the linchpins of emission reduction efforts. Interestingly, one of the most notable methane sources is cattle.

Ruminant animals, including cows, emit methane as a natural byproduct of their digestive process. Remarkably, a single cow can release anywhere from 250 to 500 liters of methane per day. The scale of methane production escalates further when these animals' waste is collected in holding ponds, a common practice employed by large-scale industrial meat producers. The staggering truth emerges when we consider that the global meat and dairy industries utilize over one billion cows, in addition to other livestock, collectively contributing to the release of methane equivalent to approximately 3.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere annually. This massive emission accounts for a substantial 44% of the world's anthropogenic methane, making the global livestock industry, if treated as a standalone entity, the third-largest greenhouse gas emitter on the planet. It occupies a pivotal position in global greenhouse gas emissions, sandwiched between the United States and India in terms of overall emissions.

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In this article, we will delve into the profound impact of methane on climate change, explore strategies to mitigate emissions, and outline actionable steps that companies can take to effectively manage methane.

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Understanding Methane's Impact

?In the year 2021, global temperatures surpassed preindustrial levels by 1.1°C, with anthropogenic methane emissions responsible for 30% of this warming. As temperatures continue their ascent, there exists the ominous potential for feedback loops that could amplify methane's warming effects, particularly from sources situated in the Arctic, wetlands, and landfills. For example, the thawing permafrost in the Arctic releases methane, and if current emission trends persist, permafrost alone could contribute an additional 5 to 20% to long-term methane emissions.

?The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has estimated that limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires that the world's remaining carbon budget for CO2 emissions, set at 570 gigatons (GtCO2) in 2018, must not be exhausted until 2031. However, current human activities emit roughly 41 GtCO2 annually, swiftly depleting this budget. Achieving the 1.5°C goal hinges on significant reductions in methane emissions since methane's presence in the atmosphere leaves less room for other GHGs. Thus, the curbing of methane emissions is pivotal for preserving a viable carbon budget and achieving net-zero CO2 emissions methodically.

?Methane vs. CO2

?Methane and CO2, despite both contributing to global warming, differ profoundly in their characteristics. Methane boasts a comparatively short atmospheric lifetime, lasting approximately a decade, while CO2 persists for centuries. Paradoxically, methane is a significantly more potent heat-trapping gas than CO2. Moreover, methane emissions are irregular and originate from diverse sources, including oil wells, cattle, landfills, and coal mines. Furthermore, these methane sources are dispersed across the five major industries responsible for the majority of human-generated methane emissions, creating challenges in terms of measurement and reduction.

?Navigating Feasible Solutions

?Despite these formidable challenges, technological advancements have made significant strides in addressing methane emissions. Nevertheless, the solutions available vary widely in terms of cost-effectiveness, feasibility, and environmental impact across different sectors. For instance, reducing methane emissions in coal mining proves considerably costlier than implementing leak detection and repair measures in the oil and gas industry, owing to lower methane concentrations in coal mines. These disparities add complexities to the business case for methane abatement for individual companies.

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Achieving a 1.5°C warming pathway through the reduction of methane emissions necessitates a shift in demand for commodities and the adoption of technical solutions. Understanding the feasibility of these technical solutions is paramount. Fortunately, despite practical hurdles, viable abatement solutions exist across the five industries, many of which rely on existing technologies. Over a 30-year horizon, more than 90% of potential emissions reductions from these solutions could be achieved at a cost of less than $25 per metric ton of carbon-dioxide equivalent (tCO2e), a price occasionally observed in voluntary carbon markets.

?To implement these abatement measures at scale, estimated annual costs range from $60 billion to $110 billion by 2030, $150 billion to $220 billion by 2040, and $230 billion to $340 billion by 2050. The cumulative cost over three decades would amount to $3.3 trillion to $5.1 trillion.

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Industry-Specific Strategies

?Here's how these industries could reduce methane emissions on the 2030 and 2050 horizons:

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1. Agriculture: Through the introduction of feed additives for cattle and innovative rice-farming techniques, the agriculture sector could achieve a 12% reduction in methane emissions by 2030 and an impressive 30% reduction by 2050.

?2. Oil and Gas: The oil and gas industry, by addressing "fugitive methane" emissions through improved infrastructure and technologies like leak detection and repair, could potentially reduce emissions by 40% by 2030 and a remarkable 73% by 2050.

?3. Coal Mining: By capturing methane emissions from coal mining, the sector could achieve a modest 2% reduction by 2030 and a more substantial 13% reduction by 2050.

?4. Solid Waste: The solid-waste sector, by capturing and utilizing methane generated in landfills and dumps, could reduce emissions by 39% by 2030 and a remarkable 91% by 2050.

?5. Wastewater: Reducing emissions from the wastewater sector, which involves upgrading sanitation infrastructure and adopting alternative abatement approaches, could lead to a 27% reduction by 2030 and a substantial 77% reduction by 2050.

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Crucial Actions for Methane Emission Reduction

?To kickstart methane emissions reduction efforts and align with the goals of the Paris Agreement, three key actions are essential:

?1. Expand Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification: Governments and industries must enhance data collection, transitioning from estimates to measured observations. Technologies such as satellite, drone, and sensor monitoring can provide more accurate data, creating incentives for swift methane reduction.

?2. Support Sustainable Consumption: Distinguishing and scoring products based on their methane footprints can inform consumer choices. Labeling products with methane-intensity information can drive more informed purchasing decisions and bolster decarbonization efforts.

?3. Increase Innovation: Accelerating the adoption of effective solutions necessitates investment in innovation, particularly in methane monitoring and technologies across industries. This includes leveraging advanced methane detection methods in the oil and gas sector and promoting methane-reducing technologies in agriculture.

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Biden's Bold Move: The EPA's Methane Rule Targets Oil and Gas Emissions

?The Biden administration has demonstrated unwavering commitment to addressing the pressing issue of methane emissions and its pivotal role in exacerbating global warming. To this end, a definitive ruling has been unveiled—The EPA's Methane Rule. This landmark proclamation was made prominently by EPA Administrator Michael Regan and White House climate adviser Ali Zaidi on the global stage of the U.N. climate conference in the United Arab Emirates. Furthermore, at this momentous juncture, the president of the climate summit declared that 50 oil companies, collectively representing almost half of global production, have solemnly committed to attaining near-zero methane emissions and terminating routine flaring within their operations by the looming horizon of 2030.

The methane rule, crystallized into its final form, actualizes a proposal initially advanced by President Biden at the UN climate conference in Scotland in 2021, later expanded upon a year hence at a climate conference in Egypt. Notably, it targets emissions emanating from extant oil and gas wells across the nation, diverging from the precedent of concentrating solely on new wells, as previous EPA regulations had done. Furthermore, it encompasses the regulation of smaller wells, mandating their meticulous scrutiny and the remediation of methane leaks. These smaller wells, although constituting a mere 6% of the nation's oil and gas output, astonishingly contribute up to half of the methane emissions from well sites.

?The Methane Fee and Law

?This landmark ruling will harmonize with a methane fee ratified within the 2022 climate law. This fee, set to take effect in the impending year, will levy charges on energy producers that exceed predefined methane emissions thresholds, potentially amounting to as much as $1,500 per metric ton of methane. It represents a watershed moment, marking the first instance of direct imposition of a fee, or tax, on greenhouse gas emissions by the U.S. government.

?Concurrently, the law accommodates exemptions for companies that adhere to the EPA's stringent standards or fall beneath specified emissions benchmarks. In addition, it encompasses a financial provision of $1.5 billion, allocated toward grants and other funding avenues aimed at bolstering monitoring and data collection, as well as the detection and rectification of natural gas leaks within the purview of energy companies and local communities.

?Canada’s approach to Methane Emission Reduction

?Canada has unveiled a novel approach to combat greenhouse gas emissions stemming from cattle, a move that aligns with the nation's broader climate change agenda under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's administration. The "Reducing Enteric Methane Emissions from Beef Cattle" proposal introduces a credit trading system designed to incentivize farmers in curbing methane emissions originating from cow burps. This pioneering initiative allows farmers who successfully diminish these emissions to accrue credits, which can then be traded to other enterprises striving to meet their emission reduction targets. These credits, each representing a metric tonne of emissions, can be earned through various means such as dietary improvements, enhanced management practices, and the adoption of strategies fostering more efficient animal growth, as articulated by Environment and Climate Change Canada. Announced on the global stage during COP28 in Dubai, this initiative is part of Canada's multifaceted commitment to climate action and follows last week's proposal to cap emissions in the country's crucial oil and gas sector. It is worth noting that approximately 10% of Canada's greenhouse gas emissions emanate from crop and livestock production, excluding those arising from fossil fuel use and fertilizer production.

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The Dairy Methane Action Alliance

?Six of the world's largest dairy conglomerates have also undertaken a momentous commitment to unveil their methane emissions, marking a pioneering initiative launched at the United Nations climate summit in Dubai. This alliance, known as the Dairy Methane Action Alliance, bears substantial significance in light of the fact that livestock activities contribute to approximately 30% of anthropogenic methane emissions globally, stemming from sources as varied as manure and bovine eructations, as reported by the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization. Consequently, advocacy groups have fervently emphasized the necessity of prioritizing the mitigation of methane emissions associated with livestock during the COP28 summit this year.

?The distinguished members of this alliance—namely, Danone, Bel Group, General Mills, Lactalis USA, Kraft Heinz, and Nestle—have committed to commence the disclosure of their methane emissions by mid-2024. By the conclusion of that year, they will diligently craft comprehensive methane action plans. This proactive stance underscores the critical role that methane plays in the overarching endeavor to combat global warming, given its potency, with methane being nearly 30 times more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide, as corroborated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

?Efforts to curtail methane emissions within the dairy sector entail a multifaceted approach. According to Chris Adamo, Vice President of Government and Public Affairs at Danone, this necessitates not only technical but also financial support to empower farmers worldwide to explore an array of potential solutions, such as innovative feed additives. The complexity of this challenge necessitates a nuanced perspective, as Adamo aptly notes, "There’s not one silver bullet. We have to look at this full spectrum of different options for farms across different geographies." For instance, Danone has already pledged to reduce methane emissions from its fresh milk supply chain by an impressive 30% by 2030.

?It is essential to acknowledge that, on a global scale, food production accounts for approximately one-third of total greenhouse gas emissions, underscoring the profound significance of initiatives such as the Dairy Methane Action Alliance in catalyzing a transformative shift towards sustainable practices in the realm of food production.

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Conclusion

?Mitigating methane emissions is vital for achieving a 1.5°C warming pathway and averting severe climate consequences. The good news is that practical solutions are available, ranging from feed additives for cattle to advanced leak detection methods in the oil and gas industry. However, implementing these solutions presents challenges, and prioritizing cost-effective measures is crucial. A coordinated effort involving enhanced monitoring, support for sustainable consumption, and increased innovation is essential to address this critical aspect of climate change mitigation. Without these efforts, current initiatives may falter, leading to an uncertain and perilous future for our planet.