Potential Superpowers-2:China and Russia

China

The People's Republic of China receives continual coverage in the popular press of its emerging superpower status,[14][15] and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic growth and military superpower by academics and other experts. In fact, the "rise of China" has been named the top news story of the 21st century by the Global Language Monitor, as measured by number of appearances in the global print and electronic media, on the Internet and blogosphere, and in social media.[16][17][18][19][20] The term "Second Superpower" has been applied by scholars to the possibility that the People's Republic of China could emerge with global power and influence on par with the United States.[21] The potential for the two countries to form stronger relations to address global issues is sometimes referred to as the Group of Two.

Barry Buzan asserted in 2004 that "China certainly presents the most promising all-round profile" of a potential superpower.[22] Buzan claimed that "China is currently the most fashionable potential superpower and the one whose degree of alienation from the dominant international society makes it the most obvious political challenger." However, he noted this challenge is constrained by the major challenges of development and by the fact that its rise could trigger a counter coalition of states in Asia.[citation needed]

Parag Khanna stated in 2008 that by making massive trade and investment deals with Latin America and Africa, China had established its presence as a superpower along with the European Union and the United States. China's rise is demonstrated by its ballooning share of trade in its gross domestic product. He believed that China's "consultative style" had allowed it to develop political and economic ties with many countries including those viewed as rogue states by the United States. He stated that the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation founded with Russia and the Central Asian countries may eventually be the "NATO of the East".[23]

Economist and author of Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance Arvind Subramanian argued in 2012 that China will direct the world's financial system by 2020 and that the Chinese renminbi will replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency in 10 to 15 years. The United States' soft power will remain longer. He stated that "China was a top dog economically for thousands of years prior to the Ming dynasty. In some ways, the past few hundred years have been an aberration."[24]

Lawrence Saez at the School of Oriental and African Studies, London, argued in 2011 that the United States will be surpassed by China as military superpower within twenty years. Regarding economic power, the Director of the China Center for Economic Reform at Peking University Yao Yang stated that "Assuming that the Chinese and U.S. economies grow, respectively, by 8% and 3% in real terms, that China's inflation rate is 3.6% and America's is 2% (the averages of the last decade), and that the renminbi appreciates against the dollar by 3% per year (the average of the last six years), China will become the world's largest economy by 2021. By that time, both countries' GDP will be about $24 trillion."[25]

Historian Timothy Garton Ash argued in 2011, pointing to factors such as the International Monetary Fund predicting that China's GDP (purchasing power parity adjusted) will overtake that of the United States in 2016, that a power shift to a world with several superpowers was happening "Now". However, China was still lacking in soft power and power projection abilities and had a low GDP/person. The article also stated that the Pew Research Center in a 2009 survey found that people in 15 out of 22 countries believed that China had or would overtake the US as the world's leading superpower.[26]

In an interview given in 2011, Singapore's first premier, Lee Kuan Yew, stated that while China supplanting the United States is not a foregone conclusion, Chinese leaders are nonetheless serious about displacing the United States as the most powerful country in Asia. "They have transformed a poor society by an economic miracle to become now the second-largest economy in the world. How could they not aspire to be number 1 in Asia, and in time the world?"[27] The Chinese strategy, Lee maintains, will revolve around their "huge and increasingly highly skilled and educated workers to out-sell and out-build all others."[28] Nevertheless, relations with the United States, at least in the medium term, will not take a turn for the worse because China will "avoid any action that will sour up relations with the U.S. To challenge a stronger and technologically superior power like the U.S. will abort their 'peaceful rise.'"[28] Though Lee believes China is genuinely interested in growing within the global framework the United States has created, it is biding its time until it becomes strong enough to successfully redefine the prevailing political and economic order.[29]

Chinese foreign policy adviser Wang Jisi in 2012 stated that many Chinese officials see China as a first-class power which should be treated as such. China is argued to soon become the world's largest economy and to be making rapid progress in many areas. The United States is seen as a declining superpower as indicated by factors such as poor economic recovery, financial disorder, high deficits gaining close to GDP levels and unemployment, increasing political polarization, and overregulation forcing jobs overseas in China.[30][31][32]

Contrary views

Timothy Beardson, founder of Crosby International Holdings, stated in 2013 that he doesn't see "China becoming a superpower". He writes that China has basically worked as a manufacturing location for foreign companies, as 83% of all high-tech products made in China were produced for foreign companies.[33] He added that China has problems regarding wages, an aging and declining population, and gender imbalance (with China's 6:5 gender ratio, 1 in 6 males will be unable to find a female partner), and he suggested that such problems would lead to crime. He also pointed out that China continually polluted its environment during its 30 years of economic growth (of the 20 most polluted cities in the world, 16 cities are in China).[33][34]

James Fallows writes that too many people in China live without indoor plumbing, and that no mainland Chinese scientist has yet won a Nobel Prize, so it is unlikely able to become an "economic Superpower".[35] He also recalled his mid-1980s visit to China, where he found virtually everyone "poor", and that "rich" people were farmers that had their own family. He further suggests that people usually talk about how life in China is improving, yet if they go to China, they would see that Chinese officials spend too much time thinking about how to deal with the upcoming problems that their country faces.[36]

Geoffrey Murray's China: The Next Superpower (1998) argued that while the potential for China is high, this is fairly perceived only by looking at the risks and obstacles China faces in managing its population and resources. The political situation in China may become too fragile to survive into superpower status, according to Susan Shirk in China: Fragile Superpower (2008). Other factors that could constrain China's ability to become a superpower in the future include limited supplies of energy and raw materials, questions over its innovation capability, inequality and corruption, and risks to social stability and the environment.[37]

Minxin Pei argued in 2010 that China is not a superpower and it will not be one anytime soon and argued that China faces daunting political and economic challenges.[38] In 2012 he argued that China, despite using its economic power to influence some nations, has few real friends or allies and is surrounded by potentially hostile nations. This situation could improve if regional territorial disputes were resolved and China participated in an effective regional defense system that would reduce the fears of its neighbors. Alternatively, a democratization of China would dramatically improve foreign relations with many nations.[39]

Amy Chua stated in 2007 that whether a country is attractive to immigrants is an important quality for a superpower. She also wrote that China lacks the pull to bring scientists, thinkers, and innovators from other countries as immigrants. However, she believed that China made up for this with its own diaspora, and said that size and resources for them are unparalleled.[40]

Russia

The Russian Federation has been suggested as a potential candidate for resuming superpower status in the 21st century.[7][89][90] Russia has seen some discussion regarding its potential of re-emerging as a superpower, while others have made the assertion that it is already a superpower.[91] In 2009, Hugo Chavez, late President of Venezuela whose government was noted to have enjoyed warm relations with theKremlin, stated that "Russia is a superpower", citing waning American influence in global affairs, and suggested the ruble be elevated to a global currency.[92] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Russia an important superpower, praising its effectiveness as an ally of Israel and foe of Iran.[93] In his 2005 publication entitled Russia in the 21st Century: The Prodigal Superpower, Steven Rosefielde, a professor of economics at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, predicted that Russia would emerge as a superpower before 2010 and augur another arms race. However, Rosefielde noted that such an end would come with tremendous sacrifice to global security and the Russian people's freedom.[94]

In 2014, Stephen Kinzer of The Boston Globe compared Russia's actions with its own neighboring territories, to those of "any other superpower", taking Ukraine and Crimea as examples.[95] A mixed opinion has been offered by Matthew Fleischer of the Los Angeles Times: he contends that Russia will not become a superpower unless climate change eats away at the permafrost that covers, as of March 2014, two-thirds of the country's landmass. The absence of this permafrost would reveal immense stores of oil, natural gas, and precious minerals, as well as potential farmland, which would allow Russia to "become the world's bread basket—and control the planet's food supply."[96]

Media called Russia a "superpower" after its actions in Syria[97] and after the formation of a coalition to fight ISIS in Syria and Iraq, the New York Post called Russia the new "world's only superpower".[98]

Contrary views

During the annual state of the nation address at the Moscow Kremlin in December 2013, Russian president Vladimir Putin denied any Russian's aspiration to be a superpower. He was quoted saying: "We do not aspire to be called some kind of superpower, understanding that as a claim to world or regional hegemony. We do not infringe on anyone's interests, we do not force our patronage on anyone, or try to teach anyone how to live."[99][100]

Forbes writer Jonathan Adelman has summarized the arguments against Russia's superpower potential thus: "While Russia may have grabbed the headlines for hosting the forthcoming Olympics and Edward Snowden, it's no super power. Russia has a trade profile of a Third World country, a GNP the size of Canada, which is less than 15 percent of the United States GDP, no soft power, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, Wall Street or highly rated universities."[101]

Several analysts commented on the fact that Russia showed signs of an aging and shrinking population. Fred Weir said that this severely constricts and limits Russia's potential to re-emerge as a central world power.[102] Former political journalist Peter Brown wrote that Russia "would like to reclaim the superpower status it held for nearly 40 years after World War II," but in the 21st century "may lack the combination of economic and military power" to do so. He said that "Russia won't be a superpower anytime soon," citing Russia's shrinking population, high levels of poverty and poor public health.[103] In 2011, British historian and professor Niall Ferguson also highlighted the negative effects of Russia's declining population, and suggested that Russia is on its way to "global irrelevance".[104] Russia has, however, shown a slight population growth since 2012, partly due to immigration.[105]

Nathan Smith of the National Business Review has said that despite Russia having potential, it did not win the new "Cold War" in the 1980s, and other factors such as American influence over Crimea make superpower status inaccurate.[106]