Potential impact of AI

### Question:

I was just asking Krol about his views on the potential impact of AI.

### Answer:

1. No one knows the future, so all of this is speculation.

2. To assess short-term impacts, you should only talk to those currently experiencing such impacts, which are exclusively large corporations.

3. In large corporations, you should speak with decision-makers, and these are certainly not programmers and engineers. Decision-makers, those with influence and necessary resources, think only in the language of profit and loss reports, capitalization, and growth prospects.

4. There are many surveys on this topic, whether in companies that are just considering using external solutions, implementing their own solutions, building infrastructure, etc.

5. The general consensus is that jobs most at risk are those where AI implementation can effectively replace 80-90% of people + be cheaper and more reliable.

6. Typically, the middle level is disappearing. Previously, 90% of workers could reach a mid-level position and then stop striving (because it was enough - affordable mortgage, trip to Turkey, budget university for kids, affordable car), but gradually this type of career trajectory is dying out.

7. This means you will need to grow into a skilled professional (senior/principal) or leave the profession.

8. Assuming demand for seniors does not decrease but naturally grows by 5-10%, the requirements for seniors and competition will increase significantly. This will be a major challenge for 90% of employees over the next 10 years.

9. What's already happening in code creation (from JetBrains):

- 91% of users saved time thanks to JetBrains AI assistant.

- 80% of developers saved up to 5 hours on development by delegating tasks to the JetBrains AI Assistant.

- 78% of developers accelerated their work, spending less time on research and completing tasks faster.

- 77% of users enjoyed using the JetBrains AI Assistant more and became more productive developers.

So, in a year or two, it will be significantly better. As many have said - strong professionals will become stronger, while weak ones will leave (it's unclear where).

10. In content production, AI is already being used extensively, but for serious work, a professional and considerable effort are still needed. Clearly, in a year or two, the same thing will happen as in coding.

11. In business, the most expensive is the HADI cycle - testing hypotheses about offers and targets. Testing creatives, geo, targets, and channels requires either many people in this pipeline or a team + referrals, affiliates, SEO, etc.

There is a chance that this will be 100% automated, and the marketer of the 21st century will not be doing marketing but setting up a swarm of AIs + automated content marketing. Low-level copywriting (all these endless AIDA landing pages and basic funnels) will gradually disappear.

12. Obviously, in industries where uncertainty cannot be reduced by testing (money), but only by creativity - people will remain.

Everywhere else, AI will be taking jobs.

Here is an example taken from Sergey Tsyptsyn's channel:

"In Shenzhen, Starpery Technology, a major sex doll manufacturer, is currently training its own large language model to enhance its product with AI.

"We are developing a new generation of sex dolls that will be able to acoustically and physically interact with users, with prototypes expected by August this year."

"The new generation of sex dolls, created based on AI models and equipped with sensors, can respond with both movements and speech, significantly improving user convenience by focusing on emotional connection, not just basic conversational skills."

But that's not all. They are going further:

"Starpery's roadmap includes developing robots capable of doing household chores, helping people with disabilities, and providing elderly care. By 2025, the company plans to launch its first 'smart service robot,' capable of providing more complex services to people with disabilities. By 2030, these robots could protect people from hazardous jobs, according to the company's plan."

Elon Musk is targeting the same market with his Optimus project.

Again, those living in poor countries do not understand the problem of caring for the elderly and disabled, as they usually die there.

In wealthy countries, care for the elderly, homes for the elderly of different profiles, and social workers form a huge industry.

The market for home care services for the elderly in the US was valued at $107 billion in 2020 and is projected to reach $201 billion by 2028, growing at an average annual rate of 9.5%.

The market for senior living in the US is estimated at $99.82 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $131.20 billion by 2028, with an average annual growth rate of more than 5%.

So, just in the US, it's nearly $300-350 billion, and if you take Europe, Japan, and China, it's close to a trillion, with at least 50% of this market being people, specifically nurses and social workers, many of whom live on-site. That's nearly $0.5 trillion annually, and the shortage of these people is growing.

For AI, there is essentially no difference - whether it's having sex or changing diapers. The robot's body form varies (for care robots - breasts, vagina, penis - are optional and not standard), but the software is the same, just different instructions.

Conclusion: If you think "AI is weak and it won't affect me. I'm a plumber, auto mechanic, or an OnlyFans model," it doesn't mean you're smart, it means you're not adequate and ignoring reality out of fear.

In wealthy countries, the most expensive is human labor, and the cheapest is money and goods. Therefore, the trend is obviously towards replacing expensive people with cheap solutions.

In poor countries, in the CIS, people will, of course, hold out longer.

So the future for 90% of the population is a Universal Basic Income (UBI) + sex robot for the young and a robot nanny for kids and the elderly. A robot will meet a person in this life, and a robot will see them off on their final journey. Obviously, AI will be much better at supporting women during childbirth and will be the best midwife. Not immediately, but inevitably.

And a robot partner for life is the best solution for 90% of people, as all needs are met. You can talk, improve, customize, change appearance, gender, and character, age, turn off, + ownership cost is much lower. And if desired, you can even buy a Birkin for the robot. But the robot certainly won't order tons of junk on AliExpress. And if a child is born, the robot will undoubtedly be a better father in 99% of cases than what modern men have largely become.

Even if it takes 30-50 years, this is the best alternative for the majority of people. Obviously, birth rates will naturally decline, and no one will need to be killed. You may not see this, but your children definitely will. Regarding grandchildren, I'm not sure if your children will want to have children.??