Potential Immigration Hiring Trends for 2024

Firstly, I would like to wish everyone a prosperous 2024! In the ever-evolving changes to immigration policy, the frequency seemed to increase with minute-by-minute updates towards the end of last year. I could potentially reel off all the changes over the last 12 months, but I would likely be here past 2025! Some of the most notable ones include:

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• France passes new immigration bill (Dec 2023)
• Netherlands' lack of agreement on immigration policy sparking an election (July 2023)
• Germany passes new law to attract migrant workers (June 2023)
• The UK announces an increase in visa fees, health surcharge, civil penalty (July 2023), and a salary threshold (Dec 2023)
• The US announces a proposal to change H1B (Oct 2023)

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Immigration, as a landscape, has always been ever-changing, and this is no different. However, with the rapid nature of changes, employers are being met with increased restrictions to access the best talent in labour-short markets. I appreciate the policy changes in Germany were aimed at increasing access to the labour market; I think it also demonstrates the ever-changing landscape of the immigration field, particularly when you consider the German government's later announcement in October to implement a wider, stricter immigration policy.

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The general trend of increasing restrictions on global labour market access leads me to speculate on potential hiring trends in the immigration field for the coming year...

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In-House Immigration Specialists

In-house roles are nothing new, especially in the US, where firms regularly employ specialists to manage their immigration programmes. The aim is to reduce costs, stay updated on changes, and ensure they don't impact organisational commercial operations. With the increasing volume of immigration changes globally, it appears to be happening at a much faster rate, creating increased costs for employers.

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In the UK, for example, with the recent increases in visa fees, health surcharge, and more recently salary thresholds, the cost of hiring from the global labour market is more expensive than it has ever been. If you coincide that with the number of companies holding sponsor licenses, in May 2023, the UKVI listed 61,153 registered sponsors; as of Jan 2024, the register is now past the 99,000 marks. An increase of nearly 40% in less than 8 months. I appreciate this is partly Brexit-related but I think shows a clear indicator regarding the surge in demand to access the global labour force.

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We have started to see an increase in inquiries regarding organisations considering bringing immigration internally and on many occasions, their first immigration hire. With ever-increasing costs and the need for access to the skilled labour market, this would potentially suggest a further increase in demand for this expertise.

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Immigration Contractors

While the immigration industry traditionally has leaned towards permanent employment, we have started to see more of an increase in short-term contract hires. Whether it is to help cover increased caseloads, undertake immigration audits/RTW checks, seasonal busy periods, or short-term advisory projects, this appears to be a market employers are exploring more to reduce financial risk. Time will tell as to whether this could be significant, with the increased flexibility it allows for both the employer/employee, may have further potential to expand.

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Corporate Immigration Litigation

This is not a new concept and is more on the speculative side, particularly based on the recent UK legislative changes. From the start of this year, the civil penalty for illegal working has increased to the maximum of ￡60,000 from ￡20,000; while the starting point for a first breach has increased from ￡15,000 to ￡45,000. Could this be a potential indicator of the UKVI increasing compliance audits moving in 2024? E.g. for 10 employees without the correct right to work documentation at a first breach equates to a penalty of ￡450,000. There are also criminal implications, which are still the same as previously, with a potential conviction of up to 5 years. Could we start to see more high-profile cases within this space? I appreciate this is more of a UK-specific example but if this were to increase, could we start to see other governments follow suit.

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Moving from Hub Locations to In-Country Specialist Hiring

The prevalent use of hub locations within the immigration space (e.g. London, Dubai, Singapore) could potentially shift with changing government policies. As companies look to expand into specific locations, the demand for in-country advice seems to be rising. The tendency to want direct in-country advice to speed up the process of maximising commercial expansion opportunities appears to be increasing. We have started to see more of these such inquiries but again whether this could be a long-term trend remains to be seen.

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These potential hiring trends hopefully offer potential insights into the evolving landscape of immigration hiring in 2024. While it's uncertain whether they will become growth areas, firms seeking hiring advice in these areas are increasing. With several elections scheduled for 2024, one thing I think is safe to say is further changes to macro and micro immigration policies globally seem highly likely.

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