Is the potential exit of fossil fuel becoming a reality in Africa?

Authors:

Mr. Olusegun Badaru (Managing Director of Dexterpro)

Mr. Toba Adeagbo (Senior Geoscientist)

Miss. Herrieta Okolo (Geoscientist & Renewable Energy Consultant)

Despite the advocacy for cleaner sources of energy, fossil fuel remains the greatest primary source of energy worldwide. According to the Energy Institute report of 2023, Fossil fuel accounts for over 81% of the world's energy, while contributions from renewables, hydropower, and nuclear energy had a percentage share of 8%, 7%, and 4% respectively.?

Due to the above, there has been a lot of advocacy and investment to improve contribution from cleaner sources of energy to meet the global energy demand of the world. Post COVID, According to the Energy Institute report of 2023, the global energy market experienced rapid energy demand growth of about 6.6% with 70% of the lot being sourced from fossil fuel. It is interesting to note that consumption is largely driven by the Asian Pacific region, see (Figure 2 to Figure 4). The prediction shows that energy demand will grow to about 16.5% in 2050 from what it was in 2020 necessitating the call to reduce the carbon footprint caused by fossil fuel energy.

In the sub-Saharan African contest, fossil fuels and hydroelectric power make up the largest share of energy sources on the continent. However, research reveals renewables including solar and wind will grow faster than hydro-energy sources with around 70% of installed capacity generated from solar, 20% from wind, and 10% from hydro by 2050. Despite all the capacity additions in energy generation, the amount of energy currently generated by renewables is still not enough as global production of renewable energy is about 11% share of the total energy required to be produced, The African energy market increased in demand with about 6.9% from 2020 to 2022, see (Figure 3).

Due to the rapidly changing planet and increasing global energy demand, fossil fuels have become an unattractive source of energy. The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) closed with an agreement that signaled the “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era by laying the ground for a swift, just, and equitable transition, underpinned by deep emission cuts and scaled-up finance. In a demonstration of global solidarity, negotiators from nearly 200 parties came together in Dubai with a decision on the world’s first ‘global stocktake’ to ratchet up climate action before the end of the decade – with the overarching aim to keep the global temperature limit of 1.5°C within reach. While the declaration by COP 28 sounds commendable it however has a severe impact on OPEC nations, particularly African nations whose sources of revenue are largely derived from fossil fuels. This elucidates the call for an African initiative that gives credence to transitioning from fossil fuel dependence to energy balancing.?

Although, the secretary general of OPEC has called for “major investments in all energies, including hydrocarbons, all technologies, and an understanding of the energy needs of all peoples”.? Eventually, this would impact the budgets and creditworthiness of third-world countries whose country’s revenue is derived from fossil fuels. Consequently, exploration and exploitation of fossil fuel from these countries will take a slow pace thus leading to shortages and an increase in energy prices that would hit poor energy import-dependent nations the hardest.?

It is no longer news that climate change is very important and all hands need to be on deck to achieve this target. However, an African initiative that attempts to transition from fossil fuel dependency should be laudable. Therefore, Energy balancing for the African continent is crucial for an equitable transition as we phase out fossil fuels as agreed by COP 28. It has been estimated by IEA that around USD 2.8 trillion was invested in energy in 2023. More than USD 1.7 trillion went to clean energy, including renewable power, nuclear, grids, storage, low-emission fuels, efficiency improvements, and end-use renewables and electrification. This process ensures that the supply and demand for energy in a system are matched in real time. It is a critical aspect that allows the adoption of varying energy sources efficiently and sustainably. This involves ensuring the generation output of power or energy plants matches the varying demand throughout the whole day.

As said by UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell in his closing speech “We must get on with the job of putting the Paris Agreement fully to work. In early 2025, countries must deliver new nationally determined contributions. Every single commitment – on finance, adaptation, and mitigation – must bring us in line with a 1.5-degree world.” We believe the conversation needs urgent action on energy balancing.

The European Union is committed to reducing the carbon footprint caused by fossil fuels and has a diverse mix of energy sources which includes; Fossil fuels (36%),?hydroelectric power (13%), nuclear energy?(26%), solar (6%), wind (14) and Biomass (6%). Conversely, Africa faces various challenges and opportunities, reflecting the diverse energy landscape across the continent. Africa also has a diverse mix of energy sources, including fossil fuels (77%), hydroelectric power (17%), and a growing interest in green energy also known as renewable energy (6%), such as solar and wind. Across Africa, countries are blessed with fossil fuel across the eastern and western belts of the continent, even in North Africa such as Egypt and Libya. Several African countries are actively working towards improving energy access, reliability, and sustainability.?

Some initiatives and projects are underway to improve energy infrastructure, enhance grid reliability, and increase the share of renewable energy in the overall energy mix across the continent. However, this remains insufficient to address the energy gap in Africa.? Africa as a continent must therefore rise to particularly harness the abundant sunlight and wind resources, using the adoption of smart grid technologies, energy storage systems, and grid management strategies to effectively integrate cleaner energy into their system. To attain energy sustainability with minimal fossil fuel inclusion, policies and regulatory frameworks need to be in place through deliberate investment for the next decade which is required in other to address issues around affordability and accessibility.?