A postcard from the future

Last year at about this time I invited some of the best in business to share their “postcard from the future”; giving their predictions for what the next 12 months might look like.?

Another year on, I sent them back their predictions and asked them to share what they expect or would love to see in 2024. Here’s what they said:

On return to the office:

2023 prediction: “United States and EU pioneer knowledge worker protections - fewer meetings, more productivity, healthier balance.”

2024 prediction: “Alas, my audacious postcard from the future did not come true (yet). I think the tide is turning slowly. The one thing I took away from 2023 is that executives will not be the vanguard of meaningful changes around work and place. Even though they're incentivized to grow the businesses they steward, they do so by tried and true means, and, at least now, no actual pressure to shift their behaviors.

I think our goal for 2024 should be to support the doers, the employees themselves. They should have access to information and insights that help them and their teammates decide what works best for them. Unfortunately, many leaders will be laggards on the changes most needed today. Those who are the exception will be fantastic champions for enabling their workforces to educate and guide their decision-making based on what works for team(s) success and effectiveness.“ Corinne Murray , Founder, Agate

“2024: The Year The Average Employer Realized There Is No Office "Amenity" More Valuable Than Choice” Dave Cairns Senior Vice President, Office Leasing, CBRE

“The new era of work has been unlocked: RTO is redundant, giving way to a dynamic mindset shift towards Purpose-Driven Gathering and Values-Driven Flexibility, delivering tangible business results.” Lisa Harvey , VP Hybrid Experience

“More than just a place for meetings: Worker productivity data comparison of major US cities shows strong correlation between worker productivity and percentage of workdays in office in 2024.” Flip Howard , CEO, Lucid Private Offices

“How about looking 10 years out for: working from work is having a renaissance, with 1 in 3 employees now saying they come to the office at least one day a week” Nick Bloom , William Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University and senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research

"Boutique Offices: As Companies Downsize Bloated Corporate Real Estate Portfolios, They Reinvest in Smaller, More Vibrant Workplaces." Ryan Anderson , VP Global Research & Insights, MillerKnoll.

On tech & AI

“As per our 2023 forecast - Generative AI was certainly “supercharged” during 2023 in terms of Gen AI emergence and growth during 2023 which we correctly forecasted.

Generative AI will further enable Workplace Performance during 2024 and we will see the continued “Maturation and Applications for Scaling” of Gen AI during the coming year 2024. The AI Revolution accelerates in 2025 to enable new levels of Human Performance” Peter Miscovich , Executive Managing Director & Global Future of Work Leader, JLL

“The new office perk? Apple's Vision Pro: Employees commute to use the latest hardware for virtual meetings.” Dror Poleg , Author and speaker, rethinking work and cities.

On the rise of flex:

2023 prediction: “Landlords finally realize they are losing tenants due to their lack of flex workspace within their portfolios.”

2024 prediction: “My prediction was accurate. More and more landlords have realized the importance of flex. Tenants are looking for more flexibility, this includes size and term.

My prediction for 2024 is we will see more flex space trade hands. We have already seen WeWork, Industrious, Serendipity Labs and Spaces landlords make flex operators changes.“ Giovanni Palavicini , Fronteras Commercial Real Estate

2023 prediction: “Data shows landlords who partner with coworking operators to provide holistic workspace solutions are outperforming their competitors. Operators are rising to the top by providing more hospitality, while many landlords are racing to the bottom by spending more to build out underachieving generic spaces.”

2024 prediction: “Reflecting on my postcard from last year, it appears my thesis may have been overly ambitious, however, there’s been a noticeable trend among SMEs shifting from coworking to ‘cheaper’ subleases. In 2024, coworking operators experienced notable consolidation. Previously, the sector had been fragmented with diverse customer bases. However, there was a significant uptick in coworking adoption by major enterprise users, leading to the consolidation of a substantial part of the demand side customer segment. To address the needs of this expanding clientele, leading coworking operators proactively pursued acquisitions to broaden their geographical reach and accommodate diverse preferences and budgets. Kane Willmott , CEO & Co-Founder, iQ Offices

On economics

2023 prediction: “Faced with limited/no ability to buy or upgrade their homes, people start buying phone booths for their homes.”

“My prediction didn't come true whatsoever. Many are now back in the office just enough (half+ the week) to perhaps not be compelling enough to purchase a $5-$10k phone booth.

2024 prediction: WeWork 'makes it' by 'breaking it.' After breaking and renegotiating nearly half their leases, WeWork is now..."WeWork," smaller, fewer and leaner, as they enter a new...'chapter': 12" Jerome Chang , Founder, Blankspaces

2023 prediction: "Sovereign Wealth Leads $50B investment in PE fund to Acquire 200M SF of US Office Assets and Reinvent Office Investing."

2024 prediction: “Maybe this is the year Peter Hansen pulls it off- with an SL/LS Workspace Property Trust collaboration.” John Arenas , CEO, Serendipity Labs

On employee satisfaction:

2023 prediction: “Extreme engagement eclipses quiet quitting and satisfaction with work soars: What’s behind the trend.”

2024 prediction: “I’m an eternal optimist, so while we haven’t achieved nirvana (an impossibility for sure), we’ve seen some positive signals. 70% of people are not currently looking for another job and job satisfaction is at an all-time high since the Great Recession of 1987. In addition, we are recognizing and reconfirming the benefits of being face-to-face, from mental health and innovation to work-life fulfillment—while also embracing hybrid work as here to stay offering the terrific benefits of flexibility, choice, and control. On the other hand, 80% of people say their work isn’t ideal—so it’s a great time to come together and make a difference in creating the conditions for great work experiences that deliver performance, engagement, fulfillment, and happiness. So what will be next? Continued focus on performance and improvement in a VUCA world. We will continue to face significant challenges, and work will occupy an expanded role as a source of connection, meaning, and purpose—not the only source, but an important touchstone for many. Tracy Brower, PhD , Vice President of Workplace Insights, Steelcase

2023 prediction: "Record-high employee engagement scores across organizations tell us the debate about the ‘where’ of knowledge work – the physical or proximity aspects of it – is over. Employees have won."? Robert Teed, PCC , Founder & CEO Integri Group

This is what I predicted for 2023.? And I could not have been more wrong.? On whole, engagement scores have not only not reached record-highs, but they fell to dismal levels in 2023 according to Gallup and others.?

Why was I so wrong?? Two reasons, really. Reason 1: Fear. The option to allow choice & flexibility in where knowledge work happens was uncomfortable and thus feared by some senior executives at very large institutions and agencies.? And those fearful executives – emboldened by big opinions and little data – turned to mandates to enforce behaviors and quash the change.? Mandates are not the stuff of engagement…

?Reason 2:? Poor change management.? Where the change was embraced, some did not model or manage it, rather leaving it to happen organically.? Unmanaged change can be painful. Pain can drive down engagement.

?2024 prediction: "‘Employee Engagement’ will be the topic of the year, at least in the 2nd half.? In the first half, we will begin to see the negative side effects in the US of mandated return to office decisions, which will be represented by further erosion in employee engagement levels (already at dismal levels in 2023).? ?

As this happens, those companies who went the route of mandates will then be forced to over-index on driving up employee engagement – back to pre-2020 levels – to beat back attrition, to increase attraction, and to improve productivity.?

The companies that stayed away from mandates and instead embraced reasonable levels of choice & flexibility will be employers of choice in 2024."

What headlines do you hope to read in 2024?