Post-unification Germany: disastrous failure of politics by hindsight

German post-unification political doctrine has been dealt a serious blow. Considering that this comes from Russia, wholly Russian made, which was supposed to serve as a core of the most successful of German politico-strategic project, risks escalating this blow into a major incident with substantial consequences in the future. Russian invasion in Ukraine has already surpassed the borders of the “border skirmish”. It should be clear by now that we are witnessing history in the making; defining world order for the next 50+ years.

Unification of Germany and subsequent joining to EU of so many former communist and former Soviet Union countries, in the view of many ordinary citizens permanently eliminated the risk of a major conflict in Europe. What was left unsolved – troublemaking region in the Balkans and Turkey joining EU, could be easily dealt with promises of EU integration and political pressure. Various programs of assistance are just terminology for control and forcing of EU’s will.

Germany as the largest economy in Europe, closely matched by population and territory, inherited a natural position to benefit the most of the numerous successes the EU project has achieved. Looking back on the previous 30 years it is clear that as a typical efficient machinery, Germany made the most of all possible opportunities that peace in Europe had to offer. When crisis appeared there was always something to offer to all sides so that business as usual could continue in earnest. This approach of constant chances to redress – politics by hindsight, made the core of German politics; settling crisis by having something to offer to all sides but always a bit more to the stronger for the sake of stability. It’s, and EU’s, capacity to absorb on one hand and less?than meaningful requests from troubling regions on the other meant that Germany found the long term solution to its continuous growth as well as European stability.

During all this time, post unification, it saw no real need for costly military expenditure. As a country that not long ago tried, twice, to impose its will through force of arms and failed, it felt relieved of not having the need to express its might and prestige by way of strong military, a role willingly delegated to USA. At the same time it became clear that not having to spend on costly military equipment proved more profitable. However, to support such constant growth Germany needed cheap and reliable sources of energy, something that only Russia can match. Unlimited supply of cheap oil and gas without the need to invest in new technologies such as those needed for other suppliers offering LNG proved perfectly acceptable for Germany to look the other way when Putin was eliminating its opponents in Russia and abroad contrary to the core EU values. Further than within Russia, Germany didn’t stop short in supporting actors in Europe known for close ties with Putin. That is why Russia and Germany historically were in the right time and at the right place, magically coinciding with long and well established leaderships of Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin.

Current claims that international community should have resisted Putin’s actions in Georgia, Ukraine – Crimea and Eastern Regions, Syria and Libya are cynical. Actually, looking back at the role that Germany’s politicians and especially Angela Merkel played in her communications with Putin, they should be ashamed. About former Chancellor Schroeder, his actions speak all there is to say.

Current situation in Ukraine showed how fragile European Union is, politically and militarily. If the most successful project of regional integration in the history of humanity is unable to guarantee its borders, cannot secure own uninterrupted?energy supply, and cannot offer safety and assurance to its partners – aspiring countries, does it really deserves to be around?

Germany benefited the most from EU integration and stability. Now that that stability is not anymore it is only fair that Germany again bears the burden of saving what can be saved. Having said that, German politics has a lot to answer for its accommodation of Putin’s expansionist appetites in and around Russia. Lets not forget Germany’s support for pro-Russian actors in Serbia, Bosnia and Hercegovina, Montenegro and North Macedonia. Parties supported by Putin, covertly and overtly, went that far as to attempt state coups in Montenegro and North Macedonia, both NATO members. It was that German politics by hindsight that made it possible to always calm down the tensions by pleasing the stronger, expecting that there will always be next time.

Putin’s intentions are made clear; this is a war for the new world order, division of spheres of interests. Vladimir Putin made his character known long ago. He is a bully by nature and opportunistic in action. Virtue and fairness is meaningless for a bully, and he will act on any opportunity given. Only force stops a bully! Fortunately for Europe and Germany, if it wasn’t for the presence of USA and its commitments, Putin’s next stop would be Berlin.

In order to save what is not already lost EU under German responsibility must take bold security actions and commitments affecting its existing members and aspiring countries. First and foremost it must rally and unify its members behind one united position. It seems that foremost priority at the moment is to commit itself openly in securing all necessary supplies for Ukrainian forces and citizens to continue their resistance for as long as it takes. Next, must strengthen capacity of those countries bearing the burden of the crisis by the influx of refugees and match their security concerns. Further on, it must keep under constant watch troubling regions so that no chance is given to those parties looking to expand the crisis in order to lose EU’s and USA’s focus from Ukraine. No toleration should be granted to policies not in line with EU, not to mention public open support for Russia’s aggression of Ukraine under the right of freedom of speech. EU and Germany must actively engage with China, Middles Eastern countries and India regarding their position towards Russia and supply and buying of energy resources.

For the last 20 years German politics spared no effort in accommodating Putin’s and his partner’s appetites inside and outside Russia. Now that politics by hindsight approached proved wrong in the worst form possible they should bear their share of responsibility. They should be ashamed, they should be held responsible.