Post Paris (COP-21) - Can We Keep on Developing Without Killing our Nature?
"Your race hasn't even reached Type 1 on the Kardashev scale. It doesn't control the resources of this one planet, let alone a solar system or a galaxy. The Time Lords were the Type 4 civilization. We had no equals. We controlled the fundamental forces of the entire universe. Nothing could communicate with us on our level. Most races pray to lesser beings than the Time Lords."
— Time Lord Marnal, Doctor Who: The Gallifrey Chronicles
The COP-21 - the huge climate talks in Paris for all those who come from Mars – produced an agreement calling for a human influenced increase in Earth’s temperature of not more than 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050.
What many people don’t realize is the following:
- In order to achieve the agreement, save our planet (and ourselves with it), we need to give up fossil fuels by 2050 – entirely so!
- In order to give up fossil fuels – we need to change our way of life – entirely so!
- In order to change our way of life while making enough energy and food required for growth, we need to change our way of thinking – entirely so!
At the moment, we are a civilization '0' on Kardashev scale. For all those younger members that haven’t done science, Russian scientist Kardashev is in no way related to modern reality stars, the Kardashian family. He is a scientist who firmly connected the development of any civilization to the amount of energy it can produce.
Dear old Kardashev proposed, back in 1964, what would become known as ‘Kardashev Scale’ for measuring how developed a civilization is with three distinct grades available:
- Type I – Civilization that is able to harness an equivalent of energy produced by a planet (Earth in our case);
- Type II – Civilization that is able to harness an equivalent of energy produced by its star (Sun in our case);
- Type III – Civilization that is able to harness an equivalent of energy produced by the entire galaxy (the Milky Way in our case).
Since, there have been some changes to the scale including Carl Sagan proposing a revised scale based on a logarithmic formula, but the basics stayed the same.
We, the Humans, on this dear Earth have been surviving largely by burning remains of creatures that died millions of years ago using – our ‘bread and butter of energy sources’ – oil and coal!
Funny, we consider ourselves very important and amazingly advanced but - at the end of the day - we live and prosper largely thanks to burning the dead! So much for the advancement of our civilization!
In order for us, to push to that Type I civilization, we need to get rid of our current intoxication with the dead plants and move on. Besides the energy requirements and not to mention the well know fact that burning dead plants kills our environment - moving on will require a complete change of the way we currently think accompanied by a healthy dose of creativity and lack of fear of investment into new technologies.
Back in the forties and fifties of the last century, during the initial stages of the cold war, when east and west were looking for new and innovative ways to completely and utterly destroy the entire population of this dear Earth, someone realized that, rather than using the nuclear fission (the A bomb for all of us who grew up on comic books and bad media), using nuclear fusion (the H bomb) produced a lot more spectacular explosions (think 3-4 times bigger).
The difference is really one of reversing one well-known idea - splitting the atom – with the idea of putting two atoms together to create a new (and bigger) one – kind a like what Sun does at its core.
Well, that all well and good – but how does that help us produce energy?
Truthfully – we don’t really know. Yet!
While the fission energy has been successfully produced since the mid 50’s, humanity’s penchant for disasters combined with thousands of tons of radioactive nuclear waste (which we have no clue what to do with) has given us a sour taste for ‘nuclear energy’.
Fusion, on the other hand, would produce 3-4 times more energy while producing only a fraction of radioactive material (give number and quote location) while, at the same time, being completely safe – or so they say.
The problem is – and there’s always a problem in the plot as you have rightfully guessed – that we need to create temperatures of about 150 million degrees (yes, about 25 times hotter than the core of the Sun – contain them with super conductive magnets that are inches away but need to be the coldest elements in the universe to function properly, and on top of all that figure out how to convert all that beautiful energy to something that we can actually use.
For all those who don’t know, our current source of nuclear energy – the fission – is harnessed by converting heat to steam to pressure to electricity – a process in which we loose estimated 60-68 % of the energy we actually produce.
But, let’s – just for a moment – put all these things aside and look at the numbers:
- By 2050 (if we continue current growth of population and economy), we will require huge amounts of energy every year (logarithmic increase of about 2.3%);
- We cannot burn the dead plants anymore so we need a new source of energy (not to mention that burning dead plants is bad for the environment);
- The current renewables will - only if fully utilized - serve us for only about another 100-150 years or so (with current growth in mind);
- We don’t really have any alternatives (great ideas) right now, fusion is there (as a concept) for a very long time and is fairly viable (given enough investment and time);
Now, what is the problem?
Well, for one, and as usual – the money!
Yeah, I know, the whole humanity’s existence hangs in balance and we worry about our little stash in the mattress! Well, to put it bluntly, some people think that cash will do them some good when there is no water, food and the Earth’s air is so polluted we’ve got nothing to breathe – but’s that’s the reality.
For example, according to Bill Gates, current US defense R&D spending are 60% while current new energy R&D spending is paltry 2% – you, of course, see where I’m going with this?
Second issue is the human resistance to (yet another) potential end-of-the-world scenario where we - potentially - unleash 150 million degrees somewhere on the Earth and kill everyone in sight… Well, that’s a bit less of a problem as the moment this baby runs out of fuel (which is almost immediately) it will stop burning…
Third is the issue of red tape, let’s face it; burning dead plants is a big business. As funny as it seems, digging up dead bodies of plants, selling them around and burning them for energy is one of the biggest businesses in the world today – and as such, there is a lot of pressure from those businesses and its affiliates (read many politicians) to keep burning away. Appealing to common sense rarely works with humans – scientifically proven – coercion is kind-a hard (when you own lots of bucks you also own lots of guns), so I guess we need to focus on business opportunities. I guess, diversifying the portfolio and making more money from a more long-term sustainable source would be hard to pass on by anyone – so, all we can do is hope that they have a sound business minds and keep on presenting this the only way we can – as a sound future-proof business opportunity.
One very important caveat needs to be added though - the fuel for fusion is hydrogen and we find it in abundance here on Earth (in the water). So sooner or later, this energy scenario will compete with our (and all the Earth’s living organisms) natural need for water. So we must not stop at fusion, but keep on researching and keep on finding new and more innovative ways of looking for more energy and for more sustainable ways of producing energy.
Or, at some point of time (which will come sooner or later) we must decide we aren’t going to grow anymore, as a technological civilization, and find different (and perhaps better) ways to grow as people, as a race of humans – spiritually and in symbiosis with our nature.
So, how do we, as a collective, influencers, bunch of concerned humans, keep on pushing? Applying pressure and getting a change! Getting a change in the way we think and act! Providing this humanity and actual chance of becoming a Type I civilization one day – an interstellar civilization, a civilization that actually survives our current petty issues, survives disagreements and growth pains, and goes on thriving well into the unforeseen but beautiful future?
For the time being however, COP21 in Paris has firmly placed our future away from the fossil fuels. So, new opportunities for investment, new ideas on energy sources and new & bold strategies for the future of human race all have a place in our very near future!
Don’t be shy – this needs to be discussed… Put in your five cents!
