Post Election Reflections

Donald Trump has become the second person, besides Grover Cleveland, to win a presidential election, lose a presidential election, and win a presidential election. He is the first Republican candidate to win over 50% of the popular vote since 2004. Much has been written and will be written about this election cycle in the coming months. Here are four reflections that I have about this past election cycle:

Vice President Harris’ Challenge:

Back in the summer, I wrote the following:

“Election Day is 105 days away, so we have another twist in this election cycle with President Biden’s decision. To put things in perspective, President Lyndon Johnson announced his intention not to seek their party’s nomination on March 28, 1968. President Harry Truman announced his intention not to seek his party’s nomination on March 29, 1952. As one can see, there is a four-month difference between April and July. In the case of Johnson and Truman, both men gave sufficient notice to allow the nomination process to play out and allowed the voters to nominate the person they wanted…. The Vice President is still somewhat inexperienced in national politics compared to her previous party nominees. For instance, Hillary Clinton served in the Senate as Secretary of State. Also, the president served in the Senate for many years and was vice president before he was elected. Vice President Harris served in the U.S. Senate for four years before she decided to run for President in 2020…. Her challenge is to prove to not only her fellow Democrats but also to Independents that she is up to the challenge of being President. She will argue that it is essential to continue with the Biden Administration’s policies even though most Americans believe that the country is going in the wrong direction. It is one thing to make this argument in a nomination process, which takes time. But to do it in less than four months, she would need to be perfect in her appearances, which is difficult because every campaign has hiccups.

One reason she lost is that she ran out of time. She failed to provide a vision of the country in the early stages of her campaign. Saying, “I am not Donald Trump.” is an introduction, not how you will govern the country. From day one, she needed to give specifics and a vision of the country. She failed to argue that she was ready to lead and waited until almost the end of the campaign.

Costly Mistakes:

Besides failing to articulate her vision for the country, the campaign made other difficult mistakes. Her decision to name Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz, her running mate over Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro will be considered costly.

The decision was based on Gov. Sharpiro’s strong support for Israel and not wanting to offend the Arab American vote in Michigan. Her decision reflected her weakness and her desire to appease everyone. Pennsylvania was a critical state for her to win. Had she taken Gov. Shapiro as her running mate and stood by that decision, it would have served her as an example that she is ready to lead. It could have won her independence as someone who dared to challenge a group that formed her coalition.

?Her second mistake is her failure to embrace the interview process. Specifically, her attempt to control the narrative did not help her. What I mean by this is her failure to answer questions plainly; instead, she delivered word salads. For our readers in Latin America, think of Cantinflas, the Mexican comedic actor famous for verbosity that leads to nowhere.

Her failure to be interviewed by individuals who appeared sympathetic to the President-elect (e.g., Joe Rogan or Dave Ramsey) reinforced a perception that she was not ready to lead. She was afraid of engagement and making an argument defending or explaining her position, which was a costly mistake made by her campaign staff.

Opportunities for Republicans:

One of the surprises from this election was the increased percentages of African American and Hispanic voters who voted for President-elect Trump. Although Vice President Harris won the majority of African American and Hispanic voters, President-elect Trump's percentage was high for a Republican candidate. This increase stems from the voters saying to Vice President Harris, “We know who Donald Trump is, but we have no idea who you (Vice President Harris) are.”

These results present the GOP with an opportunity to make inroads into the African American and Hispanic communities, something that the GOP had difficulties in years past. If the Republicans want to continue making inroads, they should focus on governing. Prove to these communities that you will address the issues impacting them. Do not treat the African American and Hispanic communities as pieces on a chess board. Do not promise to address the problems, and you ignore them. That is something that the Democrats did in the past (i.e., immigration).

The Republicans, especially in Congress, have a two-year window to show the American voter that they should be the governing party. They should not squander that opportunity.

?Finally,

Both political parties need contingency plans:

Besides the historical significance of this election, whether it was President-elect Trump’s repeat of former President Grover Cleveland’s feat or Vice President Harris’ nomination as the first female person of color to be nominated by a major political party, historians can not also forget that there was a near assassination of a presumptive nominee (i.e. President-elect Trump) and the presumptive nominee’s decision to drop out of the race (i.e., President Joe Biden).

It will serve both political parties well to develop contingency plans to address these events (e.g., assassination, dropping out due to health reasons, etc....). Any contingency plan must address the fact that the party delegates have a voice in selecting a subsequent nominee and not leave it in the hands of political consultants or party leaders only.

In closing, this election cycle will be described as one for the ages. The road to the White House was not straight, but it was twisting and curving. It will be a period of soul-searching for Democrats and Republicans, an opportunity to make inroads with communities that they thought impossible to reach.

At the time of this post, names have been announced for the President-elect’s foreign policy team. We will review it next week and how it impacts Latin America.