The Post Election Brexit Nightmare

The UK, as it is for the meantime, is embroiled in its latest soul searching while the rest of the world moves on: the USA into an election year; the Chinese furthering their technology and global reach; the Russians pursuing their Surkov and Gerasimov doctrines; India with technology and re-defining a Hindu state; and the EU with new re-invigorated leadership. In these developments a Westphalian inspired nation state model has become increasingly irrelevant; particularly where it is enshrined, the UN Charter. The post-election Brexit nightmare is that the UK is trying to reinvent the nation state when the rest of the world is doing, pretty much, the opposite.

The USA is a dangerous and unstable political and military ally these days. Its focus on 'Make America Great Again' may seem to be as introverted as the UK's approach but make no mistake it is as interested in extending power beyond its borders as it ever was. In the new world of electronic and online trade it has always sought to dominate the world through huge technology companies with global reach and Government backing. It is not a liberal approach.

China's rise to be the major world power continues apace. It dominates Africa, Pakistan, and mid- Asia through its Belt and Road Initiatives; it is the largest creditor in Latin America; it holds much of the USA's debt; and can turn off the power in the Philippines at a switch. It is not a liberal approach.

Russia seeks to undermine the morality and institutions of the West whilst reinventing itself as a global diplomatic, military, cyber and information warfare player. Its declared manipulation of NATO and the truth is most clearly seen in Ukraine and the reports into Russian meddling in the USA election and the UK referendum. It seeks an extension of power beyond its own borders. It is not a liberal approach.

India is increasingly a technology powerhouse with a Hindu driven agenda. Its huge diaspora means it controls more middle management in more countries than any other major country. It is the world's largest democracy. It does not have a liberal approach.

The EU does, still, have a liberal approach rooted in law and a desire for peace in Europe. Yet within the EU this is challenged by the rise of populist regimes. The loss of the UK to the EU will hurt it politically, economically, socially, technically, environmentally and legally. Potentially, still, a liberal approach.

The UN is suggesting a global carbon tax based on some questionable science and priorities (ask Canada). This is not a liberal approach.

The UK is not big enough, even as the 5th largest world economy, to stand up to these world changes on its own. It could be a major and positive influence within the EU for change and stability. Instead as a broke (huge national debt), owned (foreigners own UK industry and infrastructure), service reliant (but who will want those services after Brexit?), defensively weak and politically ridiculed nation state it seeks to enter a much changed world on its own and without friends (it has offended most of those it had over the last 5 years). It does not have a strategy just a tactical task: get BREXIT done.

So, if the Tories win the election and do get BREXIT done the UK is in for a certain rough negotiating ride. Let us all hope there is more subtlety than bluster in the proposed negotiations, which will only start after BREXIT, than there is in the election campaign. If Labour win, or there is a hung parliament, then the UK is guaranteed further damaging delay pending referenda. Remain voters do not have a clear focus as the Liberal Democrats seem to have lost support. This guaranteed unstable immediate future is happening when the UK is possibly at its most vulnerable. In any event it is a nightmare.

The UK may be the first major country and economy to be defeated by Modern Agile Conflict.