Post-Derna Libya’s AIoT Imperative: A Strategy for Mitigating Future Climate Disruptions (Part-II)
Mazigh Buzakhar ????? ????????
Digital Strategy Consultant | Business Development | Digital Transformation
Infrastructure Status & Concerns
Upon comprehending the devastation caused by Storm Daniel, which significantly impacted the eastern region and specifically the city of Derna, it becomes evident that this was a catastrophic event. This incident underscored the crucial need for the development of infrastructure, particularly for hydraulic and meteorological sensing systems.
To comprehend the considerations involved in the development of Libya’s current infrastructure/services, it is necessary to focus on three levels of implementation, which includes:
It was announced before that the head of Libya’s Government of National Unity (GNU) has given the green light to the National Strategy for the Communications and Informatics Sector 2023-2027 this year, as noted by the Libya Herald. The realization of this strategy hinges on political stability, agile governance underscored by transparency, and a collaborative approach involving all local stakeholders, from the private sector to Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) and academics. As we move closer to 2024, it’s crucial to continue monitoring the situation and assess the standing of this strategy and its implementation.
As a refresher, we’ve previously discussed the topic of digital transformation in Libya in another article. We raised questions and underscored the concerns and challenges Libya faces in achieving digitalization. The need for comprehensive improvement of the telecommunication network infrastructure was highlighted, along with the obstacles caused by government bureaucracy. We noted that bureaucracy, as an administrative process, presents numerous limitations and difficulties.
The New York Times published an article discussing the state of meteorological infrastructure in Libya. According to a United Nations official, the crisis caused by Storm Daniel in the eastern region and Derna was partly due to the absence of a functioning meteorological authority in the country. The Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) echoed this sentiment during a press briefing in Geneva, attributing the non-operational status of Libya’s meteorological service to the country’s administrative chaos.
In a subsequent statement, the Secretary-General of the WMO highlighted the issue, pointing out that the capabilities of Libya’s current weather service were constrained during the crisis. He further clarified that "The National Meteorological Center faces major gaps in its observing systems. Its IT systems are not functioning well and there are chronic staff shortages. The National Meteorological Center is trying to function, but its ability to do so is limited. The entire chain of disaster management and governance is disrupted,".
On the other side when examining the state of hydraulic structures in Libya, particularly the dam construction projects, it’s notable to know that there are 18 dams spread across the regions of Tripolitania and Cyrenaica. These dams, all located in the northern part of the country where seasonal surface run-off is prevalent, serve multiple purposes. They are designed to manage valley floods, provide water for irrigation, and replenish underground aquifers.
We now need to explore how the integrating of AI and IoT technologies can be effectively applied to mitigate climate disruptions. The focus is on identifying the appropriate strategies for implementing this technology in post-Derna Libya.
AI and Sensing Integration
The events that transpired during Storm Daniel, including the collapse of two major dams in Derna, can be attributed in part to poor management by the authorities responsible for these dams. There was an article published on The Conversation delved into the issues surrounding dam management that led to the collapse and subsequent damage in Derna.
In examining the levels we’ve previously discussed; it becomes clear that the implementation and management of effective national strategies is a necessity. But the question remains, how can we put these strategies into action?
Upon examining the aforementioned levels, it becomes evident that the implementation and agile management of comprehensive national strategies is a essential step. Again we emphasize that these strategies should involve all stakeholders. This approach allows us to underscore the significance of sensing technology and Artificial Intelligence of Things (AIoT) for a multitude of reasons:
To delve deeper into this, we can examine each reason from a broader perspective:
-Implementation of Early Warning Systems: The application of AIoT technology can facilitate the development of early warning systems. These systems have the potential to predict disasters in advance, thereby enabling timely evacuation and preparation. Currently Libya lacks such system.
-Facilitation of Real-Time Monitoring: AIoT devices are capable of providing real-time monitoring of meteorological conditions and water levels in dams and rivers. This capability is crucial for initiating immediate action in response to signs of potential danger.
-Execution of Data Analysis: AI algorithms have the ability to analyze data collected by IoT devices. This analysis can reveal patterns and trends that are instrumental in predicting future events.
-Infrastructure Maintenance: AIoT technology can be employed for the regular monitoring and maintenance of infrastructure such as dams. This can aid in the early identification and resolution of issues, preventing them from escalating into catastrophic events.
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-Climate Change Adaptation: In light of the increased frequency and severity of weather events due to climate change, it is imperative for countries, including Libya, to adapt their infrastructure and systems accordingly.
Recognizing the significance of the issue, the World Economic Forum (WEF) identifies the potential of AI as a essential system in addressing global risks, including climate change adaptation. The WEF’s strategic intelligence insights depict AI as a system that can facilitate our transition towards climate-resilient lifestyles, categorizing it as a key player in managing global risks.
The WEF also emphasizes the capability of AI to power early-warning systems as we discussed earlier and predictive models. However, despite slow ongoing efforts as described by UN report to limit global warming to 1.5°C, projections suggest that the world could warm by 3°C by the end of the century. This increase in temperature is likely to result in more frequent and severe floods in many places in the world and north Africa is not exceptional, leading to greater loss of life and disruption in the coming decades.
Therefore, it is imperative to concentrate not only on climate mitigation but also on large-scale climate adaptation. With the aid of AI, we can implement integrated solutions in conjunction with IoT to tackle these challenges.
Observing the existing and prospective development in hydraulic structures in Libya, we can examine the integration of AIoT in dams or flood control systems situated in various locations, particularly in the northern region of Libya, including both Tripolitania and Cyrenaica. This integration, which could be tested in one or two dams as a pilot model later evaluated, could enhance safety protocols, fortify preventive maintenance capabilities, and boost efficiency in dam management. This can be achieved by designing an AIoT ecosystem that participates in the process of:
-Monitoring Dam Health: Sensing technologies have advanced significantly in recent years, becoming effective tools for monitoring many characteristics of a dam’s health. The Internet of Things (IoT) solves many technological limitations integrated with AI and makes it easier to implement targeted instrumentation as a foundational component of risk management programs.
-Structural Failures: Approximately 30% of all dam failures in the United States have been attributed to foundation defects such as settlement and slope instability, or damage resulting from earthquakes and other impacts. Despite Libya experiencing only a few low-level earthquakes, it is still crucial to prepare for potential foundation defects in dams caused by erosion, seepage, and seismic activity. The prompt and responsible implementation of IoT and related sensing technologies can significantly enhance the safety of dam operations.
-Flood Analytics: The convergence of AI, IoT, and big data has the potential to more accurately predict extreme events like floods. This convergence is transformational for both technologies and science-based decision making analysing flood risk and dams reservoir status with AI adds value to IoT through machine/deep learning, while IoT sensing leverages the power of AI via connectivity and data intelligence.
-Real-Time Forecasts: In many available flood researches, the integration of AI and IoT can harness the power of big data and artificial intelligence to bolster real-time predictions and augment the effectiveness of early warning systems as we described earlier. If this application of such technology in Libya was utilized could have been beneficial, potentially saving numerous lives during Storm Daniel.
Considering the lessons learned from the post-Derna disaster, I would like to underscore several crucial elements that warrant careful consideration during the design and execution of strategies. These elements necessitate a concentrated effort, a pragmatic outlook, and the active involvement of all stakeholders. When it comes to the implementation of AIoT, I propose a focused tri-strategy approach, which includes:
Way Forward, Ready or Not!!
It is of utmost importance that we eternally engrave in our hearts the devastating aftermath of Storm Daniel in Derna and the eastern region, which led to casualties, displacement, and the tragic loss of lives. The memory of those souls who were lost in this calamity will forever echo in our minds, and their presence unforgotten.
Picturing what’s happening reflects on the reality we live in. The rival governments found themselves ill-equipped to respond effectively until support with aid arrived from international organizations. This bitter experience highlighted the profound societal consequences of being unprepared for such climatic disruption, especially when compounded by insufficient infrastructure and the lack of an early warning system.
Back to the current situation, it’s impossible to understand and overlook the reality that Libya, a country heavily reliant on oil revenues, is grappling with political, social, and economic instability during one of the most challenging periods in its history since 1952. What Libya needs is a radical transformation at the grassroots level if we are ready!. While this may take time, there is no room for temporary solutions or transition periods. Despite the challenges, strong leaderships with a clear bold vision is required to steer the country towards the right strategies to prevent such climate disasters in the future. Undoubtedly, preparation for such disruptions is not just a choice, but a necessity.