Post-Crash Implications

The President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, the Foreign Prime Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and other Iranian officials were killed in a helicopter crash on Monday. These sudden deaths may cause internal chaos within the Iranian government as officials work to fulfill their roles. The Vice President, Mohammad Mokhber, was appointed as Caretaker President for the next fifty days until mandatory presidential elections are held; Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, must approve the candidates before the election can take place.?

Mohammad Mokhber has held prominent positions within the country’s power structure, particularly overseeing the country’s charitable foundations otherwise known as bonyads. One bonyad Mokhber oversaw was the Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order (EIKO). This organization controlled billions of dollars in assets under the direct supervision of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and had a stake in every sector of the Iranian economy. It is suspected that EIKO systematically violated the rights of dissidents by confiscating land and property from opponents of the regime. These dissidents included political opponents, religious minorities, and exiled Iranians. Mokhber holds a doctorate in international law, and it is believed that having his doctorate in international law was crucial in bypassing sanctions on Iran’s oil industry.

With Mokhber’s appointment as caretaker president, along with his history of deep connections with the supreme leader, it is possible he will become Iran’s next president. Couple that with the fact that Mokhber seems to have limitless financial means and connections, a history of silencing dissidents; much like his predecessor, and an ability to navigate Western sanctions and scrutiny, the potential exists for further repression of the citizens of Iran, particularly those that speak out against the government.

The crash itself is also under scrutiny, with some believing it to be the work of Israel, which Israel is vehemently denying. There has been no evidence revealed that clearly indicates the crash was purposeful or orchestrated. However, given Iran and Israel’s ongoing and well-known conflict, especially since the start of the Isreal-Hamas, and Iran’s continued support of Hamas, we could see the potential for expanded conflict between Iran and Israel. Evidence and initial reports currently appear to point to weather conditions or mechanical failure. The helicopter was a thirty-year-old U.S.-made Bell 212. Add this to poor weather conditions such as fog and heavy rain, then it becomes more likely an accidental crash as opposed to an orchestrated one on?behalf of Israel.?

Even though this crash was more than likely mechanical or weather-related, Iranian officials continue to point to Israel as the cause. With the already growing protests in support of Hamas across the world and Iran’s support of the protestors. The potential is there for further or even more violent protests and antisemitism if the protestors believe the information coming out of Iran about the crash.

The death of Iran’s President Raisi and the appointment of Vice President Mokhbar do not necessarily reflect a potential shift in Iran’s foreign policy or direction but simply reinforce it. However, in an already unstable region, the potential for political infighting and unrest does exist and could further destabilize the region.