Post COVID19 Aviation
COVID 19 is, basically, administering a death blow to many businesses, including the industry that helped spread it very effectively and quickly, around the globe, the world’s commercial aviation industry and there is nothing anyone can do about it, or is there? When European sailing ships first crossed the Atlantic to North America, along with sailors and various passengers and cargo, they also carried disease. Disease that had devastating effects on the Native populations of North America.
The Jet Engine age of commercial air travel has opened up the world to us, be it for business or vacation, we have all grown used to the convenience of being able to quickly travel to any corner of this world that was necessary. However, as with most good man has found or developed in the world, man got greedy! They found they could sell 20 people tickets to travel by air from North America to Europe, imagine if they could sell 100 or more tickets for the same air travel! Not only did airlines get greedy but supply does follow demand! Traveling public enjoyed traveling from ‘A’ to ‘B’ but then got to the point where rather than accepting the cost of that ticket to be $500, they insisted on it costing no more than $100, so airlines did what they had to in order to keep both the travelling public and their shareholders happy! So the pressure was on the aircraft manufacturers to develop and build bigger and faster commercial jets to move more people farther, quicker, in the goal of lining pockets! I think you will agree the A380 plane is the ultimate of this gluttony!
One morning we all woke up and that convenience is gone! Taken away from us, by a pandemic completely out of our control. However a Pandemic, one must admit, the convenience and speed of global air travel definitely helped spread globally! That aside, the world’s international airlines, already mired in debt just to try to outperform the competition, are ground to a complete halt, almost instantaneously! Now, many of these airline names will never be heard again, except in history lessons or nostalgic recollections. Not good, for airlines, for their thousands of employees, for business travelers, for aircraft manufacturers or many of their suppliers or global business itself, as well.
So now, this massive, global, industry must be re-built! However, from here we can see, we have the technology, the tools, the know-how to rebuild it BUT man has to be smart about this! As we are discovering there are many changes we must make to save and improve our world, our lives and those of generations after us.
As witnessed, Bombardier Aerospace has fallen victim to much bad luck and bad timing over the past 10 years. So much so that it nearly buried the whole thing in the ground long before COVID19 came along! However, just prior to Commercial aviation taking the COVID 19 nose-dive, Bombardier divested itself of the Commercial Aviation game! That was a decision that cannot help but improve things for the Business Aircraft division now. With the recent return to the helm of Bombardier Business Aircraft of #Eric Martel, the future is looking brighter already! Given the choice of Business Aircraft, Commercial Aircraft or Trains, Bombardier is staking its re-birth on its original venture into aviation, business aviation, and I think, based on that, COVID 19 will help to make it work well for Bombardier, as well as the rest in this industry such as Gulfstream, Embraer, Falcon, Textron and others. In Bombardier’s case, in these bad times that are most definitely having a harder impact on commercial aviation, they no longer have such division to pull it down, as it appears the CSeries did in sinking the previous ship!
Why? Well we all see it will take some time to regain the travelling public’s confidence that they are safe on “Public Transit” type aircraft again! There is a reason airline economy class has been given the name “cattle class” in recent years, based on how the majority of paying passengers are treated and herded on and off the aircraft as well as at the boarding gates, ticket counters, security check points, baggage claim and more. COVID19 and resulting social distancing practices will serve as the strict parent telling airlines, air travellers and aircraft OEM’s how many seats they are allowed to put in a row or cabin. As opposed to allowing “revenue” be that determining factor! As I read here on www.dhirubhai.net, just the other day, airlines could consider removing every 2nd seat in their economy class configurations, however airlines will not consider this due to the resulting loss in revenue or increase in ticket prices required. As a member of the travelling public, as much as I may not like it, I would rather pay $500 for a particular ticket and get to and from my desired destination healthy, comfortable and safe, rather than paying $100 to be uncomfortably crammed into a tightly packed row of passenger seats designed for airline revenue numbers only! As we now see, it is not only the plane crashing that can cost you your life in air travel! This has become the new “safety” factor in flying. From Boeing and Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer we already have awesome, reliable, machines to get us around the world safely. But do they address ALL safety factors?
If you have been as lucky as I have, to have flown First-Class or Business Class on international (trans-Atlantic / Trans-Pacific) business flights in recent years you may have noticed something very interesting, in hindsight, considering recent events. One of the most emphasized and (personally) enjoyed features of this premium travel experience was its own form of “social distancing” long before that became a daily term! I enjoyed the large, wide, seats. Not because I am particularly large or wide but rather because it afforded me the personal space I enjoy and appreciate! In light of recent events, personal space which it is apparent we each need and require, in order to help keep us safe and healthy. Now, not only does your seat cushion serve as a personal floatation device to help save your life, if needed, but the 2 to 3 feet (1M) between you and the person next to you serves to act as a personal distancing assistant, to help save your life, if needed!
Yes, based on known costs, this will make air travel much more expensive than it has been lately. However a slogan like, “we help keep you safe and alive” will help drive the point home. Air travel has always had its inherent risks and dangers. And with those comes a cost. Why is it far less expensive to take a bus or train somewhere than to fly? Much less risk so much less safety infrastructure to be paid for.
Until now, business aircraft travel has been something left to the wealthy and corporate elite, and yet now, in 2020, the idea of traveling on a jet with 9 other people is much more appealing than with 100+ other strangers!
How airlines will evolve to accommodate the new “social distance norms” needs of the travelling public is yet to be seen but we humans are smart and good at overcoming adversity.
The way I see it, Commercial Airlines and Commercial Airliner manufacturers have much to learn from Business Jet Manufacturers. Think of the seating layout in a business Jet and think of the seating layout in “cattle class” on the last commercial flight you were on. In the new reality of 2020, which picture promotes more thoughts of germs passing from passenger to passenger?
Step away from the travelling public heading on vacation, think of the many thousands of people travelling the globe, each day, for business purposes. Personally, I used to average approximately 3 commercial flights per week, each week, for business. Now I foresee it being much harder for companies to attract top talent for roles which require frequent travel. Solution? Corporate business jets. I see a growth in demand for these, from wealthy individuals and large corporations alike. So, now based on this I see a potentially profitable future for Bombardier Business Aircraft and it’s competition. Let’s hope so! This is a niche industry I, for one, am pinning my professional future on, that is how strongly I believe in it. I see a future of airlines based on business jets. They offer the range and reliability of the big jets but so much more in a post – COVID19 world. I foresee the Vistajet’s and Netjet’s as the future airlines of the world as the flying public will adjust the purse strings associated with air travel and forge ahead. The market will shrink and the result will be a different consumer demand. Say goodbye to the B-747 and A-380 class aircraft and hello to greatly re-configured B767, B737, A350 - A320 and smaller airframes. In my mind, the winner will be the one(s) who can adjust to the new reality of air travel the fastest and truly understand the needs of the post COVID19 traveling public. Socially distant airframes are the future!
As we enter this new decade, socially responsible business must and will take priority over the “Profits at any cost” model we have been following since the 1970’s & 80’s! As recent events have shown us, there truly is far more to a great life than money and wealth! Health and Happiness to start…! So let’s go Bombardier, Gulfstream, Textron, Embraer, lead the way! We already have Business Jets and Commercial jets, now show us the “S-D Jet” that respects and offers Social-Distancing! Who knows? Maybe the age of that “flying car” has come at last! Top prize goes to whoever figures it out first!