POST-COVID shifts for policymakers

It is a foregone conclusion that increased usage of technology in education, healthcare and workplace along with socially distanced workplace/society is going to gain momentum in a post-COVID world.

Beyond these, there are going to be 10 far-reaching socioeconomic changes that policymakers need to start anticipating - 

1. Social welfare, Universal income, Univeral healthcare - will become a key discussion point for most policymakers, as repeated tactical attempts to remediate systemic challenges of wages disruption, underemployment and lack of health care, their consequent associated society-wide national challenges get better understood and felt by all classes of the society.
2. Fiscal stimulus and monetary levers lose effectiveness - the reliable tools of previous economic crises would start proving less effective going forwards as the demand remains depressed in most developed countries and fiscal stimulus starts producing diminishing returns. Consumer demand which has been on the wane since the 1980s with endemic underemployment and depressed wage growth in spite of increased productivity - means consumer spending will not be increased due to tactical cash injection. With significant supply already in the system, monetary policies will feel blunt too. Countries will need to undertake significant capital projects with a focus on local GVA into the economy.
3. Deeper China-US divide - geopolitics, always a constant even in non-crisis times will become even more pronounced as China becomes more assertive and polarizing, post-crisis with developing countries seeking assistance post-crisis turmoil, while OECD countries becoming warier of Chinese data and transparency with the international community. Lack of leadership of the US in the current crisis will be a key factor in the future alliances.
4. National industries and champions will come back into the policy focus - after 7 decades of globalization and flow of manufacturing based on comparative advantage, competition for vital medical supplies between nations, states and governments will once again bring the topic of national security and control over supply chain into focus. Governments will need to carefully identify which industries they need to incentivize or regulate to become more reliable for future crises.
5. Industrial supply chains and global trade forever altered - China, which claimed ~28% of the global manufacturing a few years ago, has been giving up significant parts of the supply chains first due to tariff battles with the US and now due to COVID related and fears of future disruptions. New hubs will form, alongside China, for high tech and other key industries - in SEA and LATAM countries, in line with the review of the national supply chain securities by major consuming countries.
6. Limited global mobility - ability to seamlessly travel that has been on the rise for most of the post-WWII era, will start reversing. Countries will slowly start lowering their borders again, but for countries whose health systems and data that they can trust. This will have a far-reaching impact on workforce mobility, services exports and in general cross border trade.
7. New ID systems that integrate health metrics - a much higher bar would be set for entry of the citizens "friendly" nations into the country. This may require on the border testing or a health record integrated into the biometrics of the national ID/passports
8. Severely curtailed civil liberties - As the nations curtail civil liberties to control COVID19, in many countries these controls won't be scaled back post-crisis to the prior state. Tremendous power that governments will accumulate for surveillance and controlling civil liberties might be abused in many countries. A new moral issue would emerge for OECD countries to address this amongst themselves as well as with their trading partners.
9. New employment models - once the crisis is over, the furloughed, laid-off employees will seek new arrangements, especially if the universal income and social welfare changes take hold. The white-collar workers will move towards more contracted gig economy nature work with employers and firms becoming more comfortable with distance working
10. Finally, internet becomes a utility! It has become clear with the crisis that internet access is now a basic right that is integrated into every aspect of our lives - from work, healthcare, education and social connections. The governments will need to step in and ensure that in case of future emergencies, connectivity is available to all sections of society