Post-Covid Civilisation – Normal Rebooted

1.    The normal life of people has changed in unimaginable ways over the past few weeks, and a new world order is getting redefined for the post-corona virus phase, when the masses resume their daily routine. What it would be like, once the pandemic has passed, and what will be our new ‘normal’? Many futuristic scenarios have been depicted in these two bobs’ worth below.

2.    The decisions, people and governments take the next few days is going to reshape the world, for years to come. As indicated here, they will shape not just our healthcare, but also our privacy, lifestyle, economy, politics and world order. Many short-term pandemic and disaster management measures will eventually become fixtures of our life.

3.    But how could these changes impact us in the long term? Could these measures lead to bigger cultural shifts further down the road? And what are those new-found habits here to stay? More importantly, what are the potential scenarios on, when the normalcy can return? When my business can resume? Yes; There are a couple of realistic scenarios in achieving this: -

a)    It is easy to assume a wait until a vaccine is developed to achieve a “population-level immunity”. But, that’s a myth by itself. From its invention to make it available to the entire world, could take anywhere from three to five years (The logistics of vaccinating the world population is no mean feat). That means, the vaccine is unlikely to be available until Covid makes several runs. There are a couple of points to ponder here. First, US President, Trump claims COVID-19 is too 'brilliant' for antibiotics to work against the virus, and WHO too have stated: “antibiotics are ineffective against viruses like COVID-19 and taking them could increase the risk of antimicrobial resistance”. More importantly, these vaccines usually will have a limited life of six months or a little more. And lastly, just as the flu can mutate, so could Covid-19, which would make people susceptible to reacquiring the infection.

b)    Second possibility may well be the pharma companies comes out with adhoc treatments (not cure) or with arrangements to reduce its complexities. These interim procedures may possibly reduce the risk of overburdening the hospitals. But this could again take at least a couple of years if not more, to get necessary clinical trials and statutory clearances. Barring a vaccine or effective antiviral treatment, we are limited to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social/physical distancing.

c)     As an alternate and less likely option, have all essential staff or those serving in mission-critical functions return to their work, by either maintaining any staggered or adjusted schedules. Staff who are asymptomatic are to undergo a self-screening/temperature check daily, and can continue with the job, while maintaining social distancing. If there are any signs of another pandemic breakout, go back to the lockdown of the area. However, with the onset of monsoon, the immunity is likely to drop and a resurgence of the Covid alongwith other seasonal epidemics, could pose an even more dangerous situation.

d)    The debates on reopening of economies before proper cure or vaccine, may eventually lead to technology-based strategies of monitoring infected and their close contacts, resulting-in snooping on their movements and activities. It has conclusively emerged that for reducing the spread of this highly contagious pathogen, one has to get ahead of the virus and cut the chain of transmission. Towards this, the use of locational data to fight against the pandemic has already become a practice, even in western nations with stringent privacy laws. Even if your GPS is kept off, it is possible to monitor movements remotely, at the cost of individual privacy. More details under “Privacy & Security” below.

e)    Last but the most remote option is for the disease to work its way through the population, surely killing many, but also leaving many others to contract the disease and recover with immunity. Unfortunately, due to falling economies, there could be huge pressure on Governments to reopen its trade and business doors with modified work practices – much against the guidelines of WHO, making way for further pandemic recurrences.

What are the Modified Work Practices & New Normal?

4.    Incremental changes to life and business practices are inescapable over time, but with the uncertainties and the aftershocks of a pandemic of this magnitude, it inevitable that some those bizarre practices may get evolved as the new life normalcy. Therefore, the fresh set of questions are, for how long we have to maintain this social-distancing? How prepared and tolerant are we to such changes? Can we accept invasion to our privacy, - however marginal those maybe? The following can serve as a checklist and a reckoner to review or augment, what plans you have already made or are under evolution: - 

Outcry for Bare Necessities

a)    Governments to work harder to ensure that there are no further outbreaks of Covid.

b)    This single aim would force everybody to carry something like a first-aid box all the time, that contains at least couple of face masks, a pair of hand gloves, a vile of sanitiser, and an app on their mobile on social distancing. Designer face masks alongwith fancier gloves and sanitizers etc are likely to be an essential part of dress code or uniform.

c)     To ensure social-distancing, the present ban on public meetings, religious ceremonies or gatherings, private functions like wedding will continue. A new social phenomenon or norm will evolve slowly.

d)    Entire office timings may be staggered to ensure that seating in canteens/rest areas is done according to social distancing norms.

e)    Increased emphasis on self-sufficiency in agriculture and farming. All Govt bodies will incentivise the agriculture and farming streams, to prevent a food crisis or famine. Any failure could be an open invitation for troubles of all-sorts.

f)      Similarly, the food industry and related supply chains will have upward growth.

g)    Also, automation in food processing and farming may gain thrust, to overcome the manpower crisis and to prevent food shortages.

h)    Internet connectivity and mobile data will be officially categorised as essential services. (Can Govt enforce Internet ban thereafter?)

i)      Online banking, Insurance, Preventive medicine, Tele-medicine, Web-based educations etc will have increased impetus.

j)      Telecommunications and small retail sectors (depend on the level of automation) are the areas that will have maximum opportunities for accelerated growth.

k)     Similarly, other support and maintenance services, including its logics and supply management amenities, related to above fields will have increased demand.

l)      Technology companies focused on AI, Bigdata, IoT, ML, Data Analytics, Blockchain, Biotechnology and Bio-engineering etc shall have increased demands.

m)   Economic fears, undue work pressure with unprofessional practices and insecure home practices, will make Work-from-Home (WFH) business sitting targets to hackers and fraudsters like never before. 

n)    Sharing of sensitive business data or proprietary information, and exchange of office files over the internet, certainly warrant much higher security prerequisites. In the backdrop of this fear factor, industries are in the process of discovering their respective WFH culture. Some of the traditional functions like Research, Design & Development, Testing, Centralised Call centre-based Support services etc have almost no prior experience and policies for roles in a WFH scenario, which means companies have to face and deal with several unknowns and uncertainties.

o)    Hence, there would be increased opportunities and demands for solutions based on end-to-end data protection, familiar man-machine interface with Virtual Desktop Infrastructure (VDI) or Remote Desktop Session (RDS) Hosts and Virtual Private Networking (VPN) technologies. Such properly implemented work environments can not only ensure a sustainable practice for both the employees’ health and continued welfare, but also enhanced enterprise security, in addition to steady economic growth in any diverse environments.

p)    The Covid pandemic is paving the way for significant collaboration opportunities across the value chains. Simple, insecure Video Conferencing (VC) based application like Zoom and House-Party will make way for next-generation collaboration tools like Microsoft Teams, Slack, Cisco WebEx, Avaya Space and Google G-Suite.

q)    Education is truly set for a whirlwind of changes. Universities and academic institutions will offer courses online to students, making them stay home and receive their education at a much lesser cost.

r)      There would be more emphasis on digital transactions, not only to prevent the circulation of contaminated currency notes, but also to track people movements and avoid the circulation of black money.

s)     Contingency planning might become common even for small business.

t) Can you see the biggest change that will happen in UAE, Dubai and other Gulf states? They will finally realise the value of Video-Calling Apps!

Next Phase of Transformation – People First

5.    Once the shutdown is lifted, not everything will restart on the first day, we will need to still continue to maintain certain learnings such as social distancing…..

a)    Public travel may become cumbersome, less attractive and costly. Passengers may be required to reach their starting stations, well ahead of time schedules, due to increased emphasis on health/antibody checks, screening, safety protocols and identification.

b)    Once the vaccine is commercially available, inoculation will become the vogue, before every long journey. As part of ticket checking, it may become mandatory for travellers to produce their vaccination certificate.

c)     Less of air travel and minimised foreign tours. However, based on the pandemic map, internal travel and tourism may slowly pick-up.

d)    Depending on Govt relaxations, the taxi services, Uber / Ola and AirBnB /OYO may slowly gain momentum. However, the fear of contamination will force those who can afford to avoid shared resources. New ideas will give rise to new unicorns - just give it some time.

e)    People will become weary of large public spaces. Hence, industries such as tourism, aviation, hospitality and travel will be devastated. In the absence of active Govt support, these companies will face several unknowns. Otherwise, the survival of these industries will depend on leadership, creativity, innovation, realignment, and re-skilling.

f)      Less public transport means more private vehicles. Movements by own transport, may gain momentum. Hence, there could be a rush for buying personal vehicles - scooters, bikes and cars - which would be good for struggling auto sector but may raise air pollution levels by several notches.

g)    Pandemic will resurge interest in closing the digital divide, as well as the emergence of innovative simple user-friendly mobile apps to fast-track human efforts.

h)    There could increase in demand for contact-less, AI-enabled, temperature measuring, networked, thermal, video surveillance solutions.

i)      Business following traditional working practices and physical analogue strategies may get decimated. Further, Govt norms on hygiene habits and social-distancing demand, acquisition of more infrastructures and enhanced personal spaces; so real estate and office spaces should see a decline. This could place the analogue business industry in crisis, especially when competitions are productive with WFH option. However, there are opportunities for innovations in this area, and that may force new business trends to thrive. In the wake of pandemic fear, our dependence on technology, and people dealing with Silicon Samurais, will increase - at least for a short term.

j)      Several NRIs may return to home, after a job loss. Their arrival could be yet another wake-up call for our medical and Government authorities.

k)     Increased unemployment could also mean, learn to work with less salaries and perks.

l)      With such job loss, existing commercial complexes may lie vacant, lower rents, and less construction activities overall.

m)   With the desperate unemployed willing to take up any work at lower wages, some entrepreneurs may consider starting new ventures creating a resurgence in manufacturing.

n)    There will be several new start-up opportunities and people will find a new way to conduct business at the comfort of their home or safety.

o)    Trade unions will have a lesser voice. Worker force may be asked either to change over to 12-hour shifts or 15 days on and 15 days off shifts, with half pay to prevent the issue of pink slips. New business practices will evolve.

p)    Instead of permanent jobs, due to the uncertainties, many firms may opt for contract or casual jobs.

q)    Govts may enforce mandatory two-weeks quarantine for all migrant workers. This action, together with the scarcity of jobs, the migrant labours, may not come back in the same numbers.

r)      Thumbprint based biometric attendance readers will pay the way for contactless or Covid app-based attendance systems.

s)     Cost of printing and associated stationery may go up to disincentivise hardcopies – as it would be another form of transmission.

t)      All visitor, courier or contactor access could be screened and cleared thru Covid apps.

u)    Customers may either book appointments through Covid app or websites.

v)     Online sales with door-step service and pick-n-drop, marketing and training over webinars etc will take-off like a rocket.

w)    Unless Govts brings new regulations, litigations on payments and job losses will be a common trend.

x)     Self-contained townships with proper community planning may evolve, as the need of the hour.

y)     Lockdowns may be repeated every time if there is another pandemic outbreak. Stress, depression and other psychological problems would come as by-products which everybody would need to deal with, at a personal level or seek professional help.

z)     The ban on all gatherings will continue. Hence, all elections and byelections may get postponed indefinitely or the entire electioneering practices may go digital – online.

aa) Talks on national Govt may also begin to emerge.

bb) COVID-19 will fast-forward the next industrial revolution and digitalization, including public services. The relationship between the public community and the Governments will become ever more remote, whereby they will expand their remote control and surveillance over civil society and private life surreptitiously, thus altering the social contract in the liberal world.

cc)  If these tools or the power if it accidentally falls in the hands of an authoritarian politician, he can be tempted to do many mischiefs to the democracy systems and social practices. Read more under “Privacy & Security”, below.

Luxury, Lifestyle & Business Response

6.    Lockdown has proved that the cost of living is not that expensive, it’s the cost of lifestyle that is expensive. This realisation will help the people to walk-over the difficult times with calm and at ease. With the worker lay-offs, and signs of another recession, the public will automatically tighten their belts, as their discretionary spending will drop.

a)    Fear of crowding will force malls, movie theatres, pubs, restaurants and public transport, tourism, festivals, sports events, theme parks, and other social gathering places to remain closed indefinitely. However, with the introduction of crowd control and management technologies, these industries may slowly open-up for businesses.

b)    The players and sports administrators will have to readjust and learn to perform in near-empty stadiums at least in the near term.

c)     Centrally air-conditioned environments may be allowed to function with stringent stipulations and periodical technical inspections.

d)    Domestic business travel will restart, as Govt relaxes the lockdown norms - once the situation returns to normal.

e)    On the economic front, the Oil price may stabilise. However, interest rates will go down further, and Indian Rupee will depreciate.

f)      Several Governments have already announced cut in salaries, as money from the public exchequer being pooled in to shore up resources, to meet with various challenges posed by the outbreak. This tendency for forced and unforced salary-cuts will continue for at-least 2~3 years.

g)    Covid pandemic is likely to wipe out the gains made in poverty alleviation.

h)    The pandemic could devastate some world economies and may ruin some major banks. Troubled economies may devalue their currencies.

i)      The environment is the biggest winner. Companies that ask employees to work from home find it profitable, with reduced overheads like rent, power, space, insurance, transportation etc, and may even embrace it permanently.

j)      Social distancing may spike the consumption of alcohol, causing a blow-out in obesity. With no work to go to and time on hand, a baby boom is likely.

k)     Awareness of “fake” news has increased. Remaining online is also drawing public away from the repeated and redundant TV news and serials. Consumers have also started understanding better on the biases each media house brings.

l)      In India too, philanthropy will gain popularity and feeding migrant labour is a right step to that direction. This is certainly a heartening sign.

 Essence of Religion in Danger

7.   One aspect of life that has been badly affected by the outbreak is culture, to be specific - religion. The coronavirus has turned the religions into a bit of a roller coaster, just like everything else. This microorganism is going to be the religion story of our lives. Questions about morality, mortality and metaphysics are going to be a part of every story on this pandemic. Who lives? Who dies? Who gets a ventilator? Who comes of it? How will the current outbreak impact religions? Will it increase religiosity to new heights, or will it shake the foundations of various organized religions? These are religious or astrological questions, which none of these leaders are confident to answer today. The blind followers are forced to make fresh moral decisions, every time they wake up in the mornings.

a)    In most countries such as South Korea, Italy, Iran, India, Gulf, Pakistan, Israel and Malaysia, the surge of COVID-19 cases were attributed to religious gatherings and pilgrimage sites. Never before in modern history have umpteen holy sites around the world been closed for worshippers, to be sanitised or for security reasons. The magnificent churches, temples or mosques, may remain as a landmark, while the devotees may continue to offer prayers online.

b)    We have witnessed how Christians world over have practised their faith, during just concluded Holy Week and Easter. Similarly, with Ramadan, no doubt the axiology (values) of religion that lies in rituals will be greatly lessened and disrupted. This is something technology cannot help to substitute. Of course, we can still appreciate sermons online, but without the human touch and the sacred ambience offered by rituals and holy sites, the very meaning of religion is in danger. This is so important since rituals often symbolize the essence of religion.

c)     An immediate casualty will likely be faith healers and astrologers. Prayer meetings with public healings were a trend that took off in the 1970s. The advent of television made it easy for these people to make healing sessions the climax of their prayer meetings. Similarly, in certain parts of the world, the astrologers have huge followings. With the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic, many of these people have disappeared. When they reappear after the pandemic, they will have a lot to explain: “Where was your magical power when the coronavirus was spreading all over?". If you watch carefully and read between the lines, many of the Astrologers are already dancing to the tunes of the medical professionals.

d)    Perhaps with restrictions on the number of participants and new rules on sanitation and social contact, there could be minor relaxation for those who practice religion as a business. In other words, religion - one of the biggest catalysts for political polarisation, an inspiration for violence and hatred for many, in India - will never again be the same.

Revolution in Primary Healthcare

8.    Telemedicine has not had the success story it had hoped to achieve. The method, involving remote health-related services such as monitoring, advice and education between doctors and patients online over a secure connection, promised to be at the forefront of the future of medicine. It promised to make state-of-the-art healthcare more accessible without the need to wait hours in line. 

a)    The nature of the Covid pandemic is such that senior citizens and those with other lifestyle diseases or patients suffering from earlier medical complications are at the highest risk of death. An in-person visit to a doctor for something as routine, as a prescription renewal or a regular check-up, could put these categories of citizens at high risk of contracting COVID-19. Hospitals will be forced to re-equip themselves with Telehealth facilities very soon, to enable the high-risk patients to see their doctor without leaving the house.

b)    The pandemic will shift the paradigm of where our primary healthcare delivery takes place today. For years, telemedicine has lingered on the side-lines as a high convenience system, and the Govt together with the medical community has not shown much interest in offering inroads to this technology. Out of necessity, the popularity of remote healthcare has now skyrocketed, as the traditional-care settings are not only getting overwhelmed by the pandemic, but also exposing the healthcare workers. Since the primary screening of Covid cases can be undertaken by such systems remotely, it can offload several such primary tasks from hospitals. To know more in detail: https://lnkd.in/eVXAFNA.

c)     Considering today’s technology environment, the basic telemedicine system by itself is outdated, and hence may not survive long. Businesses offering single-sign-on with the convergence of various services viz, laboratories, ambulance, insurances, paramedics, medicine & prescription food deliveries and value-added features such as schedulers, reminders, home-nursing and other on-call conveniences will thrive in coming days. A grading or rating based system can be energised to ensure competition and quality among these empanelled service agencies.

d)    Five-star hospitals may, however, opt for enterprise-class telehealth solutions featuring higher innovations with the networked tools, such as AI, Robotics, IoT, remote health monitoring Biotechnologies etc. But, still wonder how such facilities can be utilised by dentists and for other dentistry works.

e)    Further, the disaster management authorities and first responders may demand the integration of telehealth systems with their inventory management and GIS data systems. This would enable backend Bigdata technologies to offer comprehensive situation awareness at their command and control centres, to successfully manage any similar crisis in future. In addition to basic logistics details, these data could include, bed tracking, staff status, tools for quarantine facilities management, medicine and PPE status, common operational map, situational awareness dashboards, asset tracking, financial tracking etc

Privacy & Security (Behind the Mask)

9.    As countries around the world race to contain the pandemic, many are deploying technology surveillance tools as a means to exert social control, even turning those covert technologies on their citizens. Health and police authorities are understandably eager to employ every tool at their disposal to try to hinder the virus - spread, even as the surveillance efforts threaten to alter the precarious balance between public safety and personal privacy. These trade-offs are changing forever.

a)    Location-Tracking Could Stop the Disease.  Studies and experiences from China, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore suggest that using an app to track people’s movements, identify and isolate anyone who has come into contact with an infected could be critical in avoiding or leaving lockdown. With people bored with the prolonged lockdown, there is good reason to believe that they will be more than willing and motivated to use a location-tracking app to help end this pandemic crisis. App-based digital contact-tracking would automatically notify, if a person has come in contact with someone known to have the virus. Such tools will shorten the chains of infection thru predictive analysis and may declare you as sick, even before you know about it. It would then direct them to self-isolate to prevent further contamination. To encourage the usage and popularity of such location-tracking app, it must enable its users with value-added features, to check in to locations such as shops, public transports or even as attendance management utility at workplaces. Further, the app must also serve as the single-window access tool for various health services, telemedicine access, e-payments, and for ensuring the door deliveries at least for the period of their quarantine. Every new research in this field also suggests that such digital contact tracing is likely to be the best bet, for restoring a sense of safety and security in our communities. Come what may, there is a good reason to believe, a location-tracking app is the only tool available as of date, to help end the pandemic.

b)    Since this app will have linkage to multiple Govt databases, it may be possible for its further development as an ID proof, for verifications, - least during travels. Once people tracking have become such a common-utility, the police can use the same technology for tracking of criminals. Hence, the downside is, of course, that usage of such app will legitimise the new mass-surveillance system. Moreover, digital mapping of the population using tools of Big data and AI, along with facial recognition can easily separate flesh and blood. Eventually, Governments will modularly bring up such systems, bit-by-bit, block-by-block, behind the veil of pandemic care. Thus, the pandemic tools may normalise and justify the deployment of mass-surveillance tools not just over the skin, but under the skin. Ultimately, using such a utility, the Govts can work out the food estimation, medical infrastructure in an area etc, in addition to tracking of pandemic spread, crime rate, traffic incidents, and to identify the floating population. Classification of migrant population and identification of citizens from non-citizens is one of the major migraines of the Govt today. The government of India has acknowledged in the Parliament that foreign nationals who have no valid travel documents are staying clandestinely and surreptitiously; there is no correct estimate of the total number of such illegal immigrants staying in the country. What seemed to be science fictions a few years ago, could be an old news item – in the post-pandemic era. Well, Privacy rights may become the next victim of this killer pandemic.

c)     Now, what if Govt decides to introduce this application suite as one of the default App on every Android and iPhones? If TRAI and BIS decides so, such App will appear as yet another junk, which a common user will not be able to uninstall or delete. When a foreign traveller arrives in India, this app will be pushed as part of a patch upgrade, without which the traveller will not be able to use his phone in India. In effect, a phone without this application will not be able to connect to any Indian Telecom networks. Life will never be the same again!

d)    In the name of public safety, citizen convenience, and by promising enhanced security, an authoritarian politician can exploit Covid pandemic, as a pretext to further contract the public space, citizen rights, and consume more powers to intervene into freedom and private lives. By making incremental inroads progressively, makes it possible to create a subtle police state, whereby control is not as obvious as it might have been, as citizens might voluntarily offer private and personal data in hope that the state can guarantee better security. What could be more obvious, even when the Corona counts are down to zero, the Governments can argue and keep these new privacy-invasive tools in the name of countering next wave of the pandemic. Hence, for people who care about their freedom, privacy and individual rights, the world after the corona, looks much more worrying.

e)    Rules of Privacy to Change.  Just a few months back, the Hong Kong government tried to ban wearing face masks in public assemblies to stifle pro-democracy protesters. Now, the same administration is enforcing its masses to wear masks, hoping to check the Covid-19 virus spread. So, while identifying people not wearing masks could protect public health, that capability also raises concerns about the further development of facial recognition that see-thru masks. Both NEC and Panasonic, has already claimed they are which is also selling its deep-learning facial recognition system with claims that its systems can identify people even with masks. In many ways, all of these newer, more advanced technologies stand to help combat the Covid-19 virus outbreak. But there’s also something dystopian about an outbreak being used as justification for more surveillance. The post corona world is not going to be the same.

Wuhan Virus has Changed the World Order

10. According to reports, the first case of COVID-19 happened in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei province of China on 17 Nov 2019. Even though there were several cases by end December 2019, the Chinese government censored every social media post indicating plausibility of any epidemic. Rather than taking any obvious measures or stern actions, the Chinese government went ahead with the celebration of the lunar new year, thus effectively hiding any evidence of any community transmission of the disease, from the world.

a)    This pandemic casts a major shadow over the global framework. It raises fundamental questions about, how much economic interdependence nations want. The answers will however differ by country, industrial sector, and trading partner. Larger countries and unions, especially the U.S, EU, and several others will demand somewhat more autonomy. In this anarchy, the smaller nations may however face hard choices. US and its close allies will force UN agencies to renegotiate all existing trade pacts in favour of advanced democracies, to ensure, closer cooperation on global trade, health data, while sharing critical supplies, even in emergencies.

b)    The biggest impact will be on China as a result of its deception, malevolence, repression, secrecy, and aggressiveness. Every nation today believes, China as the source of this outbreak, due to its cover-up of the same, the fudging of data, currency devaluation, the hoarding of PPE, the sale of spurious PPE materials to partner countries, buy-out of strategic assets, the list goes on. While China was under lockdown, entire raw materials and global supply chains were disrupted. When the world has closed down, China has reopened its trade links. This clearly indicates that the balance of global trade has shifted one-sided. The world cannot have a choke-point like this again.

c)     Akin to social distancing, every nation will start economic distancing with China and will gang-up to protect their strategic investments and infrastructure against buy-out by China. European countries are making it mandatory for Govt approval for all acquisition, as their strategic assets are working at a loss and there is a growing fear that, China utilise the opportunity to take over them cheaply. To support such national assets, and to ensure maximum self-sufficiency, nations will declare stimulus packages for its manufacturing and industrial sectors. Nation planners may even view raw materials as a strategic asset and will stockpile or maintain minimum strategic reserves. Expect more deglobalization, in the days to come.

d)    Japan and USA are already planning to incentivise their companies to move out of China. The exodus of US companies has already begun. Other nations may also follow the lead and may move out their industries and factories out of China, progressively. Further, every nation will act in their way to re-evaluate and retrace their key import dependencies with China. Accordingly, they may also reconsider and relocate those supply chains that may pass-through China on their way to sales or retail or distribution. This introspection could also be made applicable for those software, databases and applications saved or operating under the controls or regulations of the Chinese Government.

e)    As part of this industry migration and relocation, India will have a chance to grab some share in global manufacturing. At least quite of few businesses out from China can land up in India. Will we be able to do it? - or lose it to Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, South Korea?

f)      One of the "silver linings" to this mess, however, has been a growing furore from all corners, about what China has been allowed to do and what it has become. Many of the poorer nations have seen dumping of substandard items that come out of China, and what those products have done to quality products and suppliers, in the name of cost-benefit. There is a growing awareness of the reality that some of what comes from China is of low quality, prone to risks and has the potential to cause damage. Consequently, each of the national quality and technical standards will be either strengthened or progressively revised, to disallow import of such substandard components and items.

g)    The next big change will in International corporation. This pandemic could devastate some of the economies and ruin several banks. If the rich countries and IMF show reluctance to support them, the troubles could spill over across borders, threatening the stability of the whole region. This may soon or later happen to Europe and could shake their single-currency system and perhaps the EU as a whole.

h)    The trend of nationalism and self-reliance will continue, across the continents. This could push fragile African states into chaos and anarchy, and there is a realistic chance that some regimes may not survive pandemic as mass dissidence towards the end of mass mortality will overthrow regimes, whose legitimacy will be undermined by their inability to manage the crisis.

i)      On the international level, there will be less cooperation. The horrific spread of Covid has filled hospitals and graveyards, shut down the global economy, and exposed deep fissures among nations. Since the U.S. refused to share some masks and other equipment with Canada and other close allies, we can expect those countries to seek more self-sufficiency, by repatriating production of vital medicines and equipment from abroad. Similarly, facing potential shortages of medical supplies for their own citizens, some EU nations have erected temporary export barriers. The rise of similar nationalist sentiments among member states and elsewhere will dampen the goal of international cooperation and several existing trade pacts.

j)      The WHO is probably beyond repair. China may be hesitant in giving up its authority there, and in retaliation, the U.S. will hold its funding, and so will the other democracies. As a consequence, another parallel organization akin to WHO, could be formed with the active participation of like-minded nations conforming to anti-China block, including Taiwan. This single action could rock the stability of the entire UN organisation and its allied arms, progressively. Almost similar fate is waiting for WTO and few other UN organisations.

k)     Most of the above changes won’t happen until the crisis passes. Right now, policymakers are preoccupied with life-and-death decisions. They may not want to agitate Beijing, while they are in critical need of its essential supplies. China also knows well that there would be concerted efforts by the nations lead by the US to weaken their economy and global status, once the pandemic tragedy is under control.

e)    Of course, the coronavirus originated in Wuhan, China, is bound to change the pre-existing world order, triggering a series of changes both on an international and national level, especially when it comes to sectors where countries rely upon each other for transparency, information, cooperation or aid.

Preparing for the Next Wave

11. Can't Eliminate Epidemics; but Can Minimize their Impact. Covid-19 will be the catalyst that burns the old system down, and the new will emerge and it’s going to be so much more connected, and technology will enable our human relationships instead of obstructing it, as it does now. The benefit that this Covid-19 pandemic brings, is getting more people, to try out newer technology and its allied services. The strength of a virtual business lies in its ability to solve user problems effectively, swiftly, with affordability and convenience. Families dine together, raising a glass to each other on camera, takes attend distance education, shop online digitally, educated the masses to work remotely from home, attend online prayers from the comforts of their home. Eventually, this paradigm shift will become the norm of this decade, as people would be reluctant to reverse the change once, they get the feel of this new comforts, – thus not only defeating the spread of infectious diseases, but also minimising their impact.

Conclusion

12. A lot of our lives are habitual, and habits are highly effective in helping us keep going, with the daily routines while pursuing our goals. People work and travel differently; the Wuhan generated virus has changed their daily routines and the very rhythm of their lives forever. And when you are forced to do things differently, new habits begin to form. This doesn't have to take long - it could be as short as a few weeks or a month.

13. This much is certain: Just as this disease has shattered lives, disrupted markets and exposed the competence (or lack thereof) of governments, it will lead to permanent shifts in political and economic power in ways that will become apparent only later. It’s good to take a step back to rediscover, reinvent, re-strategize, reinforce any continuations, corrections or changes that arise out of new learnings from the current situation to prepare for a better tomorrow, stay agile and continue to evolve (as an industry, as a country and as one global community).

14. The Corona pandemic has given the governments a perfect excuse to drag out its massive internal surveillance system but such expansive data-collection has also created concerns among people who fear their privacy has been severely compromised by this effort. Collecting personal data to control the outbreak should respect 'minimalism rule' and avoid excessive collecting. Certainly, there will be some grumbling on social media among privacy advocates, but the Covid rebooted world will accept this extra intrusion, or even start embracing it, as a means to combat such form of pandemic emergencies.

15. Corona Has Changed the World Forever. What it was, is not what it is going to be. For those who are willing to learn, change and adapt quickly to the new normal, can clearly see the opportunities in the horizon. Times have changed; For better, or worse? Let us hope for the best; prepare for the worst.

References:

https://cadmusgroup.com/articles/the-covid-19-recovery-conversation-must-start-today/

https://www.ft.com/content/19d90308-6858-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/19/coronavirus-effect-economy-life-society-analysis-covid-135579

https://www.stylist.co.uk/long-reads/life-after-coronavirus-predictions-uk-work-health-relationships-politics-climate-change/372608

https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/covid-19-an-epidemic-is-an-epidemic-a-war-is-a-war-analysis/story-GPYKUbUptjocqZeeKr56WP.html

Related Articles:

Part-I: Technologies & Innovations to Defy Pandemic Disasters

Part-II: Battling Pandemics – “AI” our Best Bet?

Part-III: Flirting with Corona - Fuelling the Next Wave of Innovations