Post COVID-19 world: Where does HigherEd in the US go from here?

Professor Joby John, Professor of Marketing and Former Dean at the B.I. Moody III College of Business, the University of Louisiana at Lafayette, USA &

Dr. Senthil Nathan, Managing Director, Edu Alliance Ltd, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

US higher education has been experiencing many challenges in recent years: declining enrollment due to an aging population; escalating costs of education and student loans; declining state support at public universities; and the recent declining international student enrollment. The pandemic has accelerated these challenges and also created new ones. Overall undergraduate enrollment in the US declined by 4% this fall and first-year enrollments fell 16.1%. Breaking it down by type of institution, freshman enrollment in community colleges dropped by 22.7%, public four-year colleges by 13.7% and private nonprofit four-year colleges by 11.8% and the surprise is that private for-profit four-year colleges were up 3.7% [1]. The same study reported that, as in most recessions, graduate enrollment was up 2.7%. Community college enrollment decline is against a majority view that during the pandemic more students might opt to take community college courses to save money and stay closer to home. It is possible that many of the typical community college students simply cannot afford to attend college due to loss of employment for themselves or their parents or both. 

Recently, we asked a select few current and former US higher education leaders for their views of the immediate and medium-term future of higher education in a post-COVID-19 industry that is also dominated by Artificial Intelligence and related technologies (Industry 4.0). We collated and analyzed their responses into the following four groups: eLearning Challenges faced and predictions for the immediate future; Enrollment expectations for this current academic year; Financial Implications and the Future of Higher-Ed given the serious disruption of the business of higher-ed in the US.

eLearning Challenges and Predictions:

As one respondent put it, being surrounded by “COVIDIOTS” has placed all institutions on high alert to protect the community against the spread of the virus on campus and that administrators are not always cognizant of the reality in the classroom and on campus.” The consensus about challenges faced by faculty coalesced around training, commitment, competence, and consistency in teaching in an online environment. Quality Matters, a well-recognized resource for online teaching with training and certification features reported to the contrary that 70% of Chief Online Officers surveyed deemed the switch to remote learning during the end of the 2020 Spring term as “largely successful.”[2]

The challenge for students revolved around access, reliability of equipment, and internet/wifi access or stability; especially first-generation students who lack resources at home to provide the technology needed to fully participate and engage in their learning experience, not being able to fund anything beyond “tuition, fees, books and basic living expenses.” As one respondent noted with a quote from the President at the respondent’s institution that many such students are “one flat tire away from dropping out of school.” Some institutions are raising funds to provide for these students. Not surprisingly, many institutions have demonstrated commitment and incentives for faculty. One astute comment worth noting is that “pricing in the market will force all but the most prestigious institutions to discount.”

The concern among these leaders about student learning and engagement was unmistakable: most students rely on the campus experience to remain focused on their education; such students may be at risk in an off-campus online environment, missing opportunities for students to work together as a team, experiential learning, keeping students’ attention, motivating students to attend class and participate, etc. This concern is further exacerbated by the questionable consistency in quality across classes for lack of teacher training to adapt pedagogy to teaching online.

Another major concern about eLearning had to do with testing/assessment methods being insecure and unreliable. While most institutions appear to be investing in support resources and infrastructure to cope with the current situation and expecting an increased interest beyond the pandemic, there appeared to be no systematic assessment or comparative study on the quality of teaching online vs face-to-face on the learning experience and results. Further, if the trend were to persist, additional resources (time and expense) for the development of online materials or approaches will become challenging even as students are clamoring for tuition cuts. One solution might include third-party contracting to redesign online programs – which many online universities already do.

Our respondents expect an increased level of e-learning offerings in the future as students adapt more to e-learning, there will be much more interest in continuing, at least in a hybrid manner. As faculty become proficient and students more accustomed, institutions will begin to understand the significant economies of scale associated with this modality. A Dean of Engineering in our sample cautioned that teamwork and experiential learning is an important part of higher education for students in Engineering, Science, and Technology and that meaningful alternatives must be acceptable to faculty and students.

Enrollment Expectations: 

While everyone will be anxiously wanting to come back to campus and return to normality, students will continue to expect blended and online in a higher proportion to the total course offerings. Our respondents predicted that on-campus enrollment will drop if COVID continues for the entire 2020-21 year forcing universities to be creative in offering unique online programs that will attract specific groups of students both domestically and internationally. The less tuition-dependent and the larger the endowment, the more likely the institution is to move online, and accept – even encourage – deferrals. The general consensus was that ‘everyone will lose money this year.’ Our respondents expected overall enrollment to decrease 5-10% with STEM areas seeing much fewer drops. Institutions will have to cope by reducing operating expenses, a temporary freeze on faculty and staff hires while making greater investments in information technologies.

With regard to international students, a significant portion of enrollments in the US, most respondents were concerned pointing out that the US needed to provide more welcoming environments for international students with the expectation that international student numbers will soon return to pre-COVID levels. One respondent was very direct – “for no good reason other than what can only be attributed to racism, this country is doing terrible damage to one of its core strengths - the ability to attract and retain the best and brightest from around the world.” Solutions offered included: establish partnerships with industry and community colleges to help with filling the gap in enrollment with the need for more scholarships, and partnerships with international institutions. We believe that in the interim, forward-looking US universities may establish collaboration arrangements – joint degrees & research programs - with in-class universities in countries such as China and India that send the largest number of students to the USA.

Financial Challenges:

When asked about the financial viability of institutions foreseeing the prospect of a whole year of remote-learning, respondents were unanimously dismal in their expectations with one respondent saying: “possibly 20% of universities will no longer exist in five years. These for the most part will be smaller universities, mostly 4-years, with limited resources. Many of them will be absorbed by larger universities.” Another commented that “small, private liberal arts institutions are likely to be worst-hit unless they have large endowments or wealthy donors who come to the rescue, or adapt very significantly.”

We should think about this question as we would in any industry facing serious overcapacity. The institutions with a competitive advantage –through differentiation and/or low price – may survive and even flourish. Those that have no particular competitive advantage, stuck between the differentiated and the price leaders, may be at risk. In the US, the higher ed market had been growing since WWII until 2010. One respondent from the northeast US noted that “the pool of college-age students is shrinking by about 1.5% per year. And within that shrinking pool, the level of financial need is steadily growing. How can there not be a shakeout? Just based on demographics, it seems reasonable to predict a shrinkage over the next decade of roughly 20%, through some combination of downsizing of surviving institutions and a shakeout of the weakest institutions.” The fact that a majority of the top 10 US universities with the largest enrollment are online universities must inform the thinking and planning of higher education for the coming decades.

Contrary to what the current stats show, one respondent expected that short-term some will fail especially the for-profit – predicting that “about 30% of recently established colleges will fail.”

The consensus was reflected in this comment “I wholeheartedly believe that COVID will speed up this process. For state-supported schools, I believe many would have been strung along even when it is not in the best interest of the state; however, with state budgets further stretched, I believe that there will be more political will to either close campuses or find creative partnerships which will leave these institutions looking very different than they do now.” The same respondent also noted that “for private schools, I believe that some donors will see the writing on the wall and no longer be willing to help keep the ship afloat. I think campuses that have been poorly managed and/or have not done any proactive financial planning over the past few years will face the most challenges. Private four-year colleges without large endowments are at most risk. Community colleges that invest in fundraising initiatives will be well-placed to thrive as I see a trend towards donors wanting to support technical, hands-on programs.”  But it is also noteworthy that several of the respondents seem more optimistic about the future of their universities – only time will tell whether this optimism is founded on objective evidence and thoughtful projections or wishful thinking. But it is important to note such optimism among academic leaders – as this may also indicate a level of resistance or passive response to Board-level initiatives and directions to consider radical new options.  

The Future of Higher-Ed

Asked about the future of higher-ed given the forced experience with remote learning, and the rapid development of Artificial Intelligence in training and education, one comment was that “Institutions that are differentiated in some manner can charge more for the credential. If some form of high-touch education will remain necessary, then institutions that provide “AI-resistant” education will be able to charge a premium. Otherwise, higher ed will become commoditized, and whoever offers the lowest price (through technology-enabled modalities) is king.”

Another commented “effective teaching and learning isn’t cheap, whatever the modality. Online and blended learning are attractive modalities because they are more convenient and, in the present context, safer; they may also prove to be more effective. But they are not cheaper if they are indeed to be effective.” Ironically, one paradox noted was that the more we see growth in electronic learning, the more we see a demand for face-to-face learning. Electronic modalities are not great cost savings and students don’t achieve the same social development they would receive face-to-face. 

One respondent noted: “we seem to assume that campuses and buildings are an ‘unnecessary’ expense, but we have to recognize that buildings are a sunk-cost, while the technology for electronic learning is ever-growing.” Will we switch to a majority online delivery mode? Eventually, this may be true. Right now, eLearning requires big investments in technology, software, IT support staff, graduate assistant support, etc. The college experience without the out-of-classroom personal engagement with peers will be affected. We may see more stratification in markets. Ultimately with more college options, one would imagine that over time, the cost will come down. It is not clear if most of the US Universities and colleges are ready to seriously and proactively engage in the industry-led trends in micro-credentials and nano-degrees in order to respond more nimbly to the fast-changing demand of Industry 4.0.

Teaching and learning can be done most effectively through one-to-one interaction between instructor and student because the personalized instruction can be provided based on student’s specific needs. However, it is extremely difficult to facilitate this modality financially on a larger scale. Perhaps, in the future, AI-assisted modality may help provide greater personal attention to the instructional needs of individual students at a reasonable cost. This may not be too far in the future.

Conclusion:

What do we see as the medium-term prognosis for higher education in the US? Universities and colleges that will survive and thrive are the ones that become nimble to innovate and adapt to

•  fast-changing supply-demand scenario,
• Industry 4.0
• lessons learned from the pandemic,
• the reality of “information & knowledge acquisition” options being widely available outside the campus walls,
• need to develop graduates for AI-resistant careers,
• newer business models that rely less on student income, and
• providing more “return on investments” for students and their sponsors including the government.

A Post-COVID 19 world, dominated by AI and new global order, would demand revolutionary thinking. With the vast trove of higher ed data in the US, it is a strong temptation for policymakers to continue to rely on historical data to project future trends, rather than to consider the fast-changing ground-realities and to engage in original research into market trends. Major disruptions to traditional industries from technology in the past two decades – the music industry, hospitality industry, retail industry, print-media, taxis and rental cars, and the like – should suggest to the education industry that it is not immune, either. Educators can innovate and progress - but sadly some of them may ignore these challenges at their own peril. 

Reference:

1)   https://nscresearchcenter.org/stay-informed/

2)   https://www.qualitymatters.org/