Portuguese snap elections 2024
FEPS Europe
The Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS) is the think tank of the progressive political family at EU level
On Sunday, 10 March 2024, Portuguese citizens elected 230 MPs of the Assembly of the Republic in a snap election. The turnout of 66.2 per cent was the highest since 1995. The outcome was 79 MPs to the Democratic Alliance (composed of the centre-right Social Democratic Party, the People's Party, and the Monarchist Party), with 29.5 per cent of the votes. Neck-to-neck was the PS, finishing with 28.7 per cent, which translated into 77 MPs. This means the PS is no longer the biggest party and will have to move into opposition after eight years in power. It concludes its governing period with the proud legacy of having rebuilt the country after years of austerity and vastly contributed to making the EU more social and cohesive. Though the party dropped in numbers, the PS new leader Pedro Nuno Santos has been credited for having consolidated the party quickly ahead of the elections and having run a campaign that made the initial gap between the AD and PS in polls much smaller.
What captured however most attention was the surge of the far-right Chega, arriving third and quadrupling its result from 2022 – to a level of 18.06 per cent and 48 MPs. This result was welcomed by other radical and extreme right-wing parties in Europe and labelled 'a breakthrough'. Looking at the first breakdowns of the results, it seems that Chega managed to capture the support of citizens who felt both disempowered and discontent. The pre-electoral polls showed that it was health care and education, followed by the housing crisis and low wages that preoccupied the voters the most. High on that list was also the question of governance. Many respondents expressed concern about the ethical standards and reliability of public institutions. In that context, the overall result is not only an expression of a mandate for change but an echo of a deeper social turmoil. This is something commentators observe with anxiety, recalling that the times of authoritarianism in Portugal are not as ancient as it may seem.
The new political situation is, therefore, quite precarious. PS will have to determine its strategy as the largest party of the opposition, after a legislature in which they held an absolute majority. To that end, the dynamic in the Assembly is yet to be defined – with AD leader Luís Montenegro asking not to block the construction of the government and pledging not to deal with Chega in that process. Then, however, one thing is to have the new government sworn in, but quite another to have any decent bill passed afterwards.
In the Portuguese elections, the Socialists lost power but received the same number of parliamentary seats as the biggest party in the centre-right alliance. With this very close result, there will be a new political cycle in Portugal. While the Socialists will lead a strong and determined opposition, we see the possibility of old problems resurfacing in our country. The rise of the extreme right, populism and threats to fundamental rights must be fought. Read more.
This article was written by Maria-Manuel Leit?o Marques, Member of the European Parliament and Head of the Portuguese Socialists and Democrats Group in the European Parliament Delegation
After eight years in government, the Portuguese Socialists will go into opposition. In the election with the highest turnout since 1995, citizens voted for a change. Surprisingly, however, this was not embodied by a higher vote share of the ‘Democratic Alliance’, the mainstream right coalition, but by the now all-too-common surge of a far-right party, Chega. Read more.
This article was written by Miguel Costa Matos, Member of Parliament in Portugal
In the parliamentary elections in Portugal, the Partido Socialista (PS) has suffered a heavy defeat, losing support from the middle classes as well as from young voters and pensioners. The challenge ahead is how to fight the rise of the populist radical right and to expand the basis of support of the left. Read more.
This article was written by Marco Lisi, Associate Professor at the Department of Political Studies, Nova University of Lisbon.
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