Portuguese GP 2021: Mercedes vanquishes the Raging Bulls

Isn’t it nice to look at things with the perspective of hindsight? On a day when Red Bull looked like they would have to settle for third, the undercut worked. It wasn't a very exciting race, the most action was seeing top 10 sitters Sainz and Vettel drop backwards, though I'd believe it was through no fault of their own.

Some key takeaways from Mercedes rising to the occasion, especially since Hamilton started the race just 1 point ahead of Verstappen in the world championship.

1. In qualifying (pre-game) neat is better than fast

Bottas secured his first pole position of the year, beating his teammate by 0.007 seconds. He also beat Max Verstappen who set the fastest time in qualifying, only to have it deleted for a track limit infringement. On Saturday Bottas drove the most clinical lap of the top three contenders.

Our Mantra: Often times we forget the occasion in deterministic outcomes. There are times when you need a big win, mostly just to blow your own horn. The most natural outcomes in business is a win by the narrowest of margins, so embrace it. Porter’s 4Cs – know your competition is most crucial. Identify your nearest competitor and find the most feasible way to win against him / her.

2. Direction matters as much as position

Bottas got off to a near perfect start, keeping both Hamilton and Verstappen at bay. Hamilton waited patiently and preserved his tyres for 20 laps till he eventually struck. Bottas squeezed himself in to the corner on lap 20 and gave Hamilton a much wider line – allowing him to carry more speed.

For anyone who’s interested in visualizing directions / paths, I’d recommend this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1_UK2TmgdM

Our Mantra: Oftentimes two competitors are thoroughly evenly matched, in some cases both have similarly talented employees. Lets take the line at face value "(Organizational) Direction matters as much as position (leader / follower)". I’d like to make the case that heading in the right direction is a lot faster than taking even marginal detours / longer routes.

3. Survival of the learners (not the fittest)

Max Verstappen is immeasurably talented, he’s Concord fast. But in the first 3 races he made the same mistake thrice by exceeding track limits (Good thing for him that it’s hard to exceed track limits in Monaco). At Bahrain he lost the win, in Portugal he lost pole and the fastest lap point. That's at least 7, and at most 13 points left on the table.

Our Mantra: There’s a very fine line between “right and wrong” or even “in and out”. Operating at the limit, means by definition you will sometimes cross over to the wrong side of that line. If you don’t learn quickly you’ll repeat the same mistake. Or as they say in Lord of the Rings – "You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to."

4. Every dog has his day, every driver has his say

In every battle, let us not forget the shockers or in corporate speak “unexpected outcomes”. In Bahrain it was the Alpha Tauri which powered Gasly to P4 in qualifying and Tsunoda to P9 in the race. In Imola, it was the McLaren which sent Lando Norris to the podium. In Monaco it was the innate ability of the Ferrari to warm up its tyres and clinch Pole for LeClerc. In Portugal, it was the Alpine which seemed to have blistering pace. While I’m interested to see if Ferrari maintains its pace, I’d doubt it. They didn’t capitalize on the race they should have and may have blown their best chance of a win.

Our Mantra: Winners aren’t made overnight. The teams which win build on what they do well and eliminate what they do badly. They capitalize on the little things. Again, strategy is important, but execution is crucial. When you’re having a good day, you better make it count.

The strategy question

In this GP, I'm not sure strategy could have helped Red Bull win. It did help them clinch 2nd place when they undercut Mercedes and brought Verstappen in to pit a lap earlier.

Instead of providing a framework, I'll explain this with two pictures:

? Images - Pirelli

The hard tyre is expected to be 1.2 seconds slower than the soft tyre. Maybe / Maybe not. The fastest lap on the hard tyre was a 1:20.7 and on the soft it was a 1:19.86, that's about 0.84 seconds. Sure traffic levels may have been different. But Hamilton's fastest lap on the Hard tyre was actually faster than the Medium, although he was carrying more fuel then.

You have conventional wisdom which says tyres have trade-offs. Soft is fast, Hard is durable, Medium is balanced. Maybe some tyres work better for different setups. Maybe some strategic calls works better for some companies. Maybe we can start a discussion about things you do counter-intuitively that actually work better?

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About the author:

Arshish leads the Occupier Consulting Group for JLL India. In this capacity, he helps large multinational clients manage their real estate portfolios to organize for the future of work and balance engagement with productivity. His interests outside work are sports such as F1 and cricket, movies and TV, travel and law. He hopes to write more articles like this one in the future.