In poll year, Niti highlights extent of poverty decline in Modi’s term

India pulled nearly 250 million people out of “multidimensional” poverty in the nine years between fiscal 2014-23, a new report released this week by government think tank NITI Aayog said.

Most poverty studies consider lack of income as the yardstick to measure poverty, but Niti Aayog’s report looked at 12 parameters beyond money, such as education, health, and standard of living.

Multidimensional poverty is measured based on 10 parameters, the discussion paper, titled ‘Multidimensional Poverty in India since 2005-06’, said, while highlighting that the Niti Aayog included two additional indicators, maternal health and bank accounts, “in line with India’s national priorities.”

The Niti Aayog used data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS)–the last three rounds were conducted in 2005-06 (NFHS-3), 2015-16 (NFHS-4) and 2019-21 (NFHS-5) –to calculate multidimensional poverty in the country.

In July 2023, the Niti Aayog had said that 135 million Indians were lifted out of multidimensional poverty over five years, with the proportion of poor Indians down from 24.8% in 2015-16 to 14.9% in 2019-21.

The current study said 55% of India’s population was multidimensionally poor in 2005-06, and the proportion has since declined to 24.85% in 2015-16 and 14.96% in 2019-21.

Using these figures, the study deduced that in the year 2013-14, when Modi took office, the share of poor Indians was 29.17%, and projected that the proportion would have fallen to 11% by 2022-23 and decline to 9% in 2024-25.

Some analysts said the choice of 2013-14 as the starting point of the survey is vague and the report may serve as a pitch for the coming general election, while pointing out that the assumption neglects the impact of covid.

“Is it credible? Didn’t covid interrupt the education of more than 200 million children with weak online access, setting them back by two years,” Pune-based economist Ajit Ranade wrote in Mint.

” Did the government not extend free foodgrain for another five years to 800 million Indians? Aren’t many states giving subsidies on gas cylinders, housing and other amenities,” Ranade wrote, adding, “How then does this reconcile with an estimate of massive poverty reduction?”

“It is quite possible that post welfare transfers, deprivation on many dimensions has considerably reduced,” he added.

The report, while attributing the purported decline in poverty to various government initiatives such as the nutrition mission (Poshan Abhiyan), and anaemia eradication scheme (Anaemia Mukt Bharat), projected that India is on track to achieve the sustainable development goal of “halving multidimensional poverty” before 2030.

Modi, meanwhile, called the report “very encouraging”, and added that it reflects “our commitment towards furthering inclusive growth and focusing on transformative changes to our economy. We will continue to work towards all-round development and to ensure a prosperous future for every Indian.”

The study said the fastest reduction in the number of poor people was seen in Uttar Pradesh, followed by Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan.

The main opposition Congress party, meanwhile, slammed the report, saying that those who have not been declared poor would soon be taken out of the government’s safety net.

They will no longer get subsidies or free ration, party said, asking why no third party such as the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has come forward to back the Niti Aayog’s data.

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