Poll Predictions

No, I am not a budding sephologist. The attempt is to create a framework that can be measured to predict the factors that influence the poll outcome and their interrelationship. Due to paucity of space have attempted to keep the narrative crisp and minimalist, via using the expansion of the acronym PREDICTION. The descriptors are from public domain discourse and not to be taken as a view or judgment on any individuals or party

Perception: The current dispensation came to power selling the narrative of “better days” and an inability of the incumbent to provide the same due to policy paralysis and scandals. The perception factor can be broadly translated as a complex vector product of 3 dimensions on voting day viz i) Am I better off than I was yesterday ii) Do I see tomorrow to be better than today iii) Am I fed up enough with the incumbents rule to embrace the alternative

The perception is probably the most important factor impacting fence sitters as the committed voters and cadre either don’t vote or still grudgingly vote for their party, when offended . The PM currently enjoys a sub 50% rating approval, though it is down from when he was elected

Rain: Yes, even after 70 years of independence 70% or more of agriculture is still dependent on the monsoons. Monsoons (spread, percentage and consistency) just before the election year is one of the biggest determinants of poll outcome. This year it was 91% with reasonable distribution. Last moment bursts filled up reservoirs, while destroying crops in Punjab. Kerala floods hurt, but Kerala isn’t a swing state

Employment: The so called demographic dividend is turning into a demographic disaster as the 1 mn jobs a month are not happening. The MNREGA schemes and targeted benefits provide relief, but failure on this front can hurt

Demand, Debt, Deficit, Dollar: India is a consumption driven economy, with domestic consumption a principal driver of the economy at c.60% of aggregate demand. The corporate and govt debt is threatening though not ominous. Mechanisms like IBC have not been able to yet create resurgence of lending growth, though at 55-60% the recovery levels have been impressive. The fiscal deficit impacts government ability to spend besides triggering inflation and currency depreciation. The Dollar is symbolic of the exchange rate, and in an energy deficient country impacts inflation

The current governments entire policy seems to have been to use the stable exchange rate and low oil rates to finance infrastructure growth and use JAM (Jandhan Aadhar Mobile) to target subsidies. Schemes like the Ujjwala scheme are credited to have impacted the UP polls. The surge in dollar is thus unravelling the key economic assumptions of the incumbent

Inflation: Inflation determines how far your domestic budget goes and whether you should ask for a raise, or change your employer. Over the years none of the 19 countries in which GST equivalent was implemented, re- elected their government. A stunning statistic that shows how important inflation is to the well being perception of public. In this context the balance between multiple rates and increase in direct taxes, while keeping GST collections around previous levels, could be a critical determinant

Corruption, Communalism, Caste and Cow: Corruption becomes an issue, when there is hopelessness. The Supreme Court has made a number of very progressive judgments in triple Talaq and LGBT, in contrast to the governments perceived awkward silence in the case of minority inclusivity. Casteist tendencies in India have been exacerbated by the Cow politics and policies. These areas are undercurrents that impact perception closer to the polls. Typically a high profile trigger, like Bhagwat's pronouncements, just ahead of the Bihar polls on reservation, are seen as impactful

Telephony, Tax and Trade: Telephony in India via mobile has been the principal driver and determinant for social media, post truth and transactions. Taxation drives govt finances, besides equality. Trade keeps the current account deficit and govt finances in shape. Social media rumours and canards, besides post truth can swing perceptions. Taxation has been fairly progressive though the top 1% of India now controls 58% of wealth. Stunning inequality. Can be decisive in moving the Perception vectors especially if the Jones's are doing better

Infrastructure: Roads and low cost housing have been significant drivers of the economy in the absence of construction demand and housing deflation.

Oil: Oil constitutes a significant part of Indian imports and is a highly visible and emotive issue. This is a matter of how the government sells the inflation narrative as a crisis that is force majeure and the opposition as the governments lack of accountability. Oil price and rains have been most significantly correlated with election results in India 

Netaji and Neutrality: Finally, whether Mulayam (via Akhilesh) and Mayawati cast aside their differences in UP, would have a bearing on 25-35 seats. In effect that is a swing of 50-70 net seats from one side to the other.

The factors above are largely economic, socio political and psychological. A number of other variables like global triggers, foreign policy can be included in the model. Ability of cadre based parties to mobilize cadre and the mindset of first time voters can play a significant impact. . P (Poll Results) = Function (PREDICTION). Unfortunately, there are not enough P data points (only occurs every 5 years) . It is educative to play around with variables and correlations, to increase ones understanding of a significant event in a democratic country 

Poll Predictions for 2019 - this piece was written before the elections and I have not edited to bring in post facto knowledge. Post event commentary shows that India has started to vote divergently in assembly and Lok Sabha elections. Events like how the neighbourhood crisis was managed and the lack of a program by opposition may have impacted the outcomes